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Brian Gaze
06 January 2024 17:10:31
So the first cold shot has arrived. Is the second still on the way? If so, how long will it last and how much snow can we expect? Onwards...
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
CField
06 January 2024 17:11:37
Dream run 12z almost a Feb 63 pattern at end
Favourite snowstorm
Famous channel low
Dec 31st 1978
Hastings East Sussex
Foot of level snow severe drifting
Next day max temp -4 degrees Celsius
Retron
06 January 2024 17:17:31

Dream run 12z almost a Feb 63 pattern at end

Originally Posted by: CField 


A pretty dull dream then! 😁

It's not until 360 that there's significant snow over England, and even then it turns straight back to rain - the synoptics flatter to deceive.

I do wonder what we'd all have made of the classic winters of yore, had the GFS been accessible back then! (It was around in the 80s, for example, albeit called the MRF model back then, but not for us mere mortals to see... that had to wait until the mid 90s.)

That said, unimpressed though I am by the 12z, at least it continues the theme of being mostly dry, and keeping our northern contingent happy!
Leysdown, north Kent
Chunky Pea
06 January 2024 17:28:56
Late December, 2001.

UserPostedImage
The most beautiful snowfall I can recall. Pure Artic diamond snow of which 12" fell in just a few hours,  that was regularly topped up by a steady stream of thundersnow  showers over the following few days. It was like the whole land was dipped in white gloss paint. 

November/December 2010 saw a lot of snow too, but for some reason, it was of a 'lesser' quality. It's hard to describe really. 

 
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 


"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Heavy Weather 2013
06 January 2024 17:35:47

Late December, 2001.

UserPostedImage
The most beautiful snowfall I can recall. Pure Artic diamond snow of which 12" fell in just a few hours,  that was regularly topped up by a steady stream of thundersnow  showers over the following few days. It was like the whole land was dipped in white gloss paint. 

November/December 2010 saw a lot of snow too, but for some reason, it was of a 'lesser' quality. It's hard to describe really. 

 

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 



OMG. I think I remember this. This was after we had been snow starved, and a front came though from the west. It was a great snowfall.
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Whether Idle
06 January 2024 17:49:50
https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm.php?ech=70&mode=26&map=5 
Snow disposition by Tuesday morning according to WRFNMM Model.
 
Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Ally Pally Snowman
06 January 2024 17:54:32
Heavy Weather 2013
06 January 2024 17:57:23
GFS Ensembles are excellent 
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Saint Snow
06 January 2024 18:02:15

OMG. I think I remember this. This was after we had been snow starved, and a front came though from the west. It was a great snowfall.

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 



You may be thinking of late Dec 2000. The most widespread snow event for several years. Put about 5" down (evening of the 29th IIRC), and cold air set in behind. A milder and very active front moved in from the west on the evening of the 31st. Was forecast to give 2-3 hours of heavy snow here from about 10pm before turning to rain. We got perhaps 10 mins of snow, 20 of sleet, then it rained. That was repeated most places (the milder air advanced faster than the front 😡)

​​​​​​THe late Dec 01 snowfall that CP refers to only skirted us and we got perhaps 1-2cm - but it then froze solid and by NYE was treacherous. It was marvellous!! We were out with friends at a pub for a meal/disco event on NYE and, come 11.50, the DJ ushered us all outside. Just outside was like an ice rink and, after being early to go outside, we watched with increasing hilarity as so many stepped outside and slipped on their arses. Funny what memories stick!!


​​​

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Chunky Pea
06 January 2024 18:07:11

OMG. I think I remember this. This was after we had been snow starved, and a front came though from the west. It was a great snowfall.

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 



Looking at the 850s, the great snowfall of 2010 fell from colder uppers, yet the 'fluff' quality wasn't there. The 2018 blizzard was different still. Snow the size of sand grains. Surreal experience. 
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 


"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Ally Pally Snowman
06 January 2024 18:14:15
Chunky Pea
06 January 2024 18:16:17

You may be thinking of late Dec 2000. The most widespread snow event for several years. Put about 5" down (evening of the 29th IIRC), and cold air set in behind. A milder and very active front moved in from the west on the evening of the 31st. Was forecast to give 2-3 hours of heavy snow here from about 10pm before turning to rain. We got perhaps 10 mins of snow, 20 of sleet, then it rained. That was repeated most places (the milder air advanced faster than the front 😡)

​​​​​​THe late Dec 01 snowfall that CP refers to only skirted us and we got perhaps 1-2cm - but it then froze solid and by NYE was treacherous. It was marvellous!! We were out with friends at a pub for a meal/disco event on NYE and, come 11.50, the DJ ushered us all outside. Just outside was like an ice rink and, after being early to go outside, we watched with increasing hilarity as so many stepped outside and slipped on their arses. Funny what memories stick!!


​​​

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 



It could be me that had the years wrong. Dec 2000 may have been the one I meant. The snow arrived very shortly after Christmas, but it added something to the festive period all the same. That song 'they said there will be snow at Christmas' when it came on the radio during the snow blitz just added further to it 😁
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 


"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
roadrunnerajn
06 January 2024 18:27:30
All being well I’ve chosen the right time to go to the middle of the NW Highlands… up there 12-21st.
If I can’t get my snow fix on top of a Scottish Munro I’ll give up.
Germoe, part of the breakaway Celtic Republic.
squish
06 January 2024 18:36:22
ECM again struggling with the retrogression
 
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
Ally Pally Snowman
06 January 2024 18:43:05
ECM still being a CU Next Tuesday. 
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Joe Bloggs
06 January 2024 18:43:43
ECM not doing much to calm the nerves I see.

🤣🤣🤣

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

Whether Idle
06 January 2024 18:44:06
Has anyone got a link to the his res ECM precip. charts?
Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
doctormog
06 January 2024 18:45:10

ECM not doing much to calm the nerves I see.

🤣🤣🤣

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 



Yes, it’s messy but I suspect it will get there albeit in a different way that the equally wobbly 00z op run did.
CField
06 January 2024 18:45:10

ECM again struggling with the retrogression
 

Originally Posted by: squish 

bit of an exaggeration instead of it going to Greenland it goes to Bermuda lol
Favourite snowstorm
Famous channel low
Dec 31st 1978
Hastings East Sussex
Foot of level snow severe drifting
Next day max temp -4 degrees Celsius
Chunky Pea
06 January 2024 18:50:09

ECM again struggling with the retrogression
 

Originally Posted by: squish 



Yesterday, it was the GFS playing this game. But these sort of op outputs were common right before the 2022 freeze as well. Best not take an individual op at face value. It'll drive you crackers. 
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 


"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Polar Low
06 January 2024 18:54:47

Has anyone got a link to the his res ECM precip. charts?

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 



https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/118f9c5ed1e62f483b855b82b158f827/acc-total-precipitation/20240108-1800z.html 
 
doctormog
06 January 2024 18:55:02

Yesterday, it was the GFS playing this game. But these sort of op outputs were common right before the 2022 freeze as well. Best not take an individual op at face value. It'll drive you crackers. 

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 



Absolutely. One thing these “wobbles” have in common is that they never show the same scenario on two consecutive op runs. This ECM op run is different to the previous one, so one of them will be wrong, or highly probably both. The ensembles will be more helpful (even if the cold is only delayed up here by about 12 hours with the -10 t850hPa air on the north coast by the 15th).

Edit: In fact it gets even messier by day 10. A wobble and almost 100% not in line with its ensembles and definitely not with all the other models. 
scarborough whiteout
06 January 2024 18:57:16
At the moment and for a while now anything past 72 is just not reliable. Great to watch it play out though and the way each model show's it's own outcome.
jhall
06 January 2024 18:57:56

Looking at the 850s, the great snowfall of 2010 fell from colder uppers, yet the 'fluff' quality wasn't there. The 2018 blizzard was different still. Snow the size of sand grains. Surreal experience. 

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 


In my experience, as a general rule of thumb the colder it is the smaller the snowflakes are.
Cranleigh, Surrey
Polar Low
06 January 2024 19:03:19

In my experience, as a general rule of thumb the colder it is the smaller the snowflakes are.

Originally Posted by: jhall 



Normally it’s when the DP is nearer to Zero in my experience 
Ie The ability to hold more moisture 
 

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