Remove ads from site

fairweather
07 January 2024 16:24:28

I'd assume it's a case of warmer than normal North Sea modifying the surface layer plus not particularly cold air aloft at this stage and the flow has only just turned east and it takes a little bit to draw the colder air (aloft and at the surface) in. 

Fwiw it's 3.3c here and given cloud cover and the easterly flow establishing I doubt it'll get any higher for the next 3 days or so. 

Originally Posted by: Hippydave 


4C here now and some unexpected precipitation which isn't snow - yet.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
CField
07 January 2024 16:31:50
Lovely GEM run.......could the south get a classic snowstorm?.....if some models predict a stronger plunge south it will bring the cold but also the activity will head to the Channel Islands France...such a finely balanced tightrope....
Favourite snowstorm
Famous channel low
Dec 31st 1978
Hastings East Sussex
Foot of level snow severe drifting
Next day max temp -4 degrees Celsius
doctormog
07 January 2024 16:33:23
I think that counts as a long fetch northerly! A good set of data so fr this evening if you like the cold.
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GEMOPNH12_234_1.png 
UserPostedImage
Joe Bloggs
07 January 2024 16:34:13
Yeah GFS is okay really.

Excellent ICON, GEM, MetO.

If ECM is good then a positive evening for coldies. 

 

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

Retron
07 January 2024 16:37:17
An interesting 12z GFS run, which (unlike the 6z) builds an omega block in the vicinity of Greenland by 240. The UK is right where you want it to be in such a situation - at the right-hand part of the omega.

Of course, most unlikely to come off as shown, but it's the sort of thing we need to see if we're to delay the zonal express shown in the 6z run...

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/92/950/gfseu_5_234lza4.png 
UserPostedImage
Leysdown, north Kent
Ally Pally Snowman
07 January 2024 16:39:53

Yeah GFS is okay really.

Excellent ICON, GEM, MetO.

If ECM is good then a positive evening for coldies. 

 

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 



Yeah GFS is alright i suppose 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&run=12&time=258&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref 
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Saint Snow
07 January 2024 16:43:25

I think that counts as a long fetch northerly! A good set of data so fr this evening if you like the cold.
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GEMOPNH12_234_1.png 
UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: doctormog 




Beautiful kinks in those isobars over the UK

😍

​​​​​​​(Just a pity it's a week and half away...)

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Ally Pally Snowman
07 January 2024 16:44:27

Lovely GEM run.......could the south get a classic snowstorm?.....if some models predict a stronger plunge south it will bring the cold but also the activity will head to the Channel Islands France...such a finely balanced tightrope....

Originally Posted by: CField 



Indeed Some proper snow on the GEM.  

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gem&var=25&run=12&time=240&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref 
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Ally Pally Snowman
07 January 2024 16:47:55
Upgrades all round this afternoon from the 12s fantastic stuff. 😍
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
doctormog
07 January 2024 16:50:25

Beautiful kinks in those isobars over the UK

😍

(Just a pity it's a week and half away...)

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 



It’s primed at day 7 for that plunge: https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GEMOPNH12_168_1.png 

The overall timescale for the potential cold is remarkably consistent and the output this evening, even with the different GFS scenario it wintry. Still a week is a long time in the weather world.

Interestingly the GFS op run is still cold at +300 hr. It will be interesting to see where it sits in the ensemble set.
The Beast from the East
07 January 2024 16:50:36

Upgrades all round this afternoon from the 12s fantastic stuff. 😍

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



Still await the biggest cheese, ECM. No doubt it will produce a stinker just to spite us
 
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Whiteout
07 January 2024 16:52:14
Loving the UKMO run, the 168 chart is a stonker 😍
Home/Work - Dartmoor
240m/785 ft asl
Saint Snow
07 January 2024 16:54:20

Upgrades all round this afternoon from the 12s fantastic stuff. 😍

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



The bedwetters predictably quiet...

😁

The positioning of the GH and SL is much better aligned than some recent runs, open a door for little features to sink south over the UK in a cold flow and bring parts some decent snow.
 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
The Beast from the East
07 January 2024 16:56:27
perhaps a good moment to watch the Channel 5 documentary on the Winter of 47, available on My5

 
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Chunky Pea
07 January 2024 16:56:47

Still await the biggest cheese, ECM. 
 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


ECM operational is an overrated model. It's every bit as chaotic as the GFS past the reliable stage. 
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 


"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Whiteout
07 January 2024 16:57:08
Very much looking forward to hearing more indepth thoughts from the Met Deep Dive and 10 day trend videos this week 🙂
Home/Work - Dartmoor
240m/785 ft asl
Ally Pally Snowman
07 January 2024 17:00:25

Still await the biggest cheese, ECM. No doubt it will produce a stinker just to spite us
 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 



I think we'll get a good one. 🤞🤞🤞🤞🤞🤞🤞
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Retron
07 January 2024 17:02:42


The positioning of the GH and SL is much better aligned than some recent runs, open a door for little features to sink south over the UK in a cold flow and bring parts some decent snow.
 

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


All due to the handling of the jet, really - ideally we'd see an omega block (as the GFS builds up, but then collapses), or a diffluent block. What we don't want to see is the 6z GFS evolution, which doesn't really build much of a block at all before it all collapses.

The snag is the models are notoriously poor at handling blocking! Even after all this time, give them a zonal flow and they're fine with it, but get a split in that jet and they throw up all sorts of outcomes. I suspect that's why we've seen so much scatter in the runs of late, as they're trying to pin down a) if a split will occur [and it probably will by the looks of it] and b) where and what form the resultant block will take.

 
Leysdown, north Kent
Brian Gaze
07 January 2024 17:45:18
GEFS mean looks a bit less cold >10 days.

UserPostedImage

UserPostedImage
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
doctormog
07 January 2024 17:47:39

GEFS mean looks a bit less cold >10 days.

UserPostedImage

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



A little less cold than the 06z set at this point but a little colder than the 00z set.
Saint Snow
07 January 2024 17:49:20

A little less cold than the 06z set at this point but a little colder than the 00z set.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 




Mr G will always sniff them out... 😉

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Brian Gaze
07 January 2024 17:52:17

Mr G will always sniff them out... 😉

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 



😀 Still think the northern half of the UK could do very well from this set-up. However, I'm far less confident about how things will develop in the south.
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Joe Bloggs
07 January 2024 17:52:23
MetO T+168 is such a lovely chart. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/UKMHDOPEU12_168_1.png 

I’ve always rated the MetO model - reminds me of Codge. 

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

Brian Gaze
07 January 2024 17:54:11

A little less cold than the 06z set at this point but a little colder than the 00z set.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



They look fractionally milder than the 00Z for the time I posted. Here's the comparable 00Z chart.

UserPostedImage
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
fairweather
07 January 2024 17:56:56

850s have only been around -6C so far today (varying between -5 and -7), and as such it's not going to be especially cold.

Although people have rightly mentioned that the classic cold spells had 850s of similar, or even higher values, bear in mind they already had cold air at the surface - i.e. the thin "boundary layer" near the surface was colder than it is now. It's my experience that it takes -10 or lower to get snow near coastal areas (and even lower once you get past mid-Feb), but after a day or two of it you'll get away with higher 850s.

The other thing to bear in mind is the track of the winds - at the moment they're NE'ly, so coming over quite a long stretch of sea. They'll be more ENE'ly tomorrow, meaning less modification of the boundary layer by the sea, i.e. even with the same 850s you would expect a degree or so to be knocked off.

As for the lack of frost, there are several reasons - the saturated ground will have stored quite a bit of heat, and wet ground takes longer to cool down than dry ground. The airmass itself was still in the process of drying out, the colder Continental air didn't arrive until midnight. There was also some high cloud floating around in the early hours this morning and that would have affected the outgoing longwave radiation - a gin-clear night is best. It also wasn't flat calm, there were gusts of wind through the small hours in your neck of the woods, and even if your own garden was calm, you wouldn't have had to go far up to get some wind.
Note that this all applies to the Kent/Essex area, the calculations and conditions would have been different "up north", for example.

Now that the cold airmass is firmly in place, and with temperatures aloft falling over the next 18 hours or so, conditions will be more conducive for frosts - IF the wind falls light, which it won't!

Some places inland may even see a penetrating frost tomorrow night, where the airmass itself is so cold temperatures fall below zero despite the wind. They're the frosts which are especially damaging to tender plants.

Incidentally, for those who were unaware - Wundermap is a great way of seeing all the PWSs, and you can click on one to see the graph of wind, temperature etc. I'd imagine most of us will have several nearby, and even if you have your own station it's a great way of seeing whether you're in a bit of a frost hollow, for example.

https://www.wunderground.com/wundermap?lat=51.397564&lon=0.900857 

Originally Posted by: Retron 


Yes, thanks Darren for the detailed reply. It was slightly tongue in cheek as it is pretty much what I thought but did needed some confirmation regarding ground conditions. Yes, my AWS has been on the excellent Wunderground for some years. Just had some light rain as you can see on the radar which I guess is promising for tomorrow. My DP is showing as -2.9C and temp now down to 3C so colder air now moving in. Is your DP similar as my Stevenson's screen is aa bit delapidated and damp?
S.Essex, 42m ASL

Remove ads from site

Ads