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doctormog
07 January 2024 22:52:52

I’m becoming more and more confident that this  will happen , but not quite so confident (yet) that this  will happen.

Yes the overall pattern looks very promising but the actual weather on the ground is still very much up for grabs

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 



Or up in the air?

I agree entirely with your first sentence but the trends are currently excellent in terms of cold and to an extent longevity.
Polar Low
07 January 2024 22:54:13

In terms of timescales, it is now below the one week mark when the first -10°C t850s reach the north coast so despite being almost a week out it’s not really classic “FI” territory. The building blocks are of course in place before then.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



Thats severe for your parts Micheal becoming hazardous very quickly if this run is to be believed 
https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs.aspx?run=18&charthour=216&chartname=preciptype&chartregion=uk&charttag=Precip%20type 

 
squish
07 January 2024 22:54:47
Cold scandy high to finish?  
 
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
Joe Bloggs
07 January 2024 22:58:34

Or up in the air?

I agree entirely with your first sentence but the trends are currently excellent in terms of cold and to an extent longevity.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



Yes that is the phrase I meant. I am tired. 😇

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

squish
07 January 2024 22:58:52
no!  But all in all a very good run
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
White Meadows
07 January 2024 23:00:23
Decent pub run. Not a classic but still very good. 
I would just have reservations over the depth of the cold pool out east, as it seems to warm up to nearer average levels in the coming days. So maybe missed our chance to tap into the gold by then.

 
Matty H
07 January 2024 23:02:49

Yes that is the phrase I meant. I am tired. 😇

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 



You don’t need to say anything, mate... 

Anyway, it certainly looks like an interesting spell of weather for those non-mammal-humans. 

I used to love snow but hate cold. I hate both now, but counting the days to Spring over the horizon. 

Looks like snow streamer potential for some areas tomorrow. Beyond that is anyone’s guess really. Pick your poster and their preference and hang on that, whatever your persuasion  
fairweather
07 January 2024 23:09:04

Into the second half of the run now, at T+198, and there are more pronounced upper heights in the Greenland area, with a stronger ridge.
 

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Do you look on Wetterzentrale or on here? Just I saw the complete run 30 mins ago and posted this:-

"Nothing in the 18z op that I can see of any great deviation from the pattern of the last few days. Cold or very cold for most of us except for the predicted midway blip."

Wondered if you saw it as posted 2 mins later on a non 18z topic 🙂
S.Essex, 42m ASL
doctormog
07 January 2024 23:09:05

Yes that is the phrase I meant. I am tired. 😇

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 



It was a play on meteorological words. 😁

It should be obvious to all except those with an agenda what the current outlook is. The weather in a week coukd however be totally different to what is shown.

The GEFS 18z remain robust for the cold so far (up to 180hr).
Nick Gilly
07 January 2024 23:14:55

You have reminded me of a memorable chart from a very blocked pattern some years back (probably many years back) where the cold Arctic air from Scandinavia was adverted westwards all the way to Newfoundland.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 



IIRC that was in March 2013.
Matty H
07 January 2024 23:32:58

A particularly snowy 18z 😍

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 



Whenever I look at GFS precip charts I think of Gooner. Where is he now? Had a gutful I assume?

Countless snowy GFS charts that rarely produced a flake, but I think that’s what makes that model so addictive to model watchers. 

It’s certainly felt the part here today. I’m not one for sweaters and jumpers but the 5 min walk from the car park to the hospital today had me wearing both, and I was still cold!
Gandalf The White
07 January 2024 23:49:40

Do you look on Wetterzentrale or on here? Just I saw the complete run 30 mins ago and posted this:-

"Nothing in the 18z op that I can see of any great deviation from the pattern of the last few days. Cold or very cold for most of us except for the predicted midway blip."

Wondered if you saw it as posted 2 mins later on a non 18z topic 🙂

Originally Posted by: fairweather 



That comment was posted at 10.25pm, so 80 minutes ago, so I’m afraid that I don’t understand your point…… 🙂

I still use Meteociel, having moved from Wetterzentrale years ago. My French isn’t great but a lot better than my German 🙂
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


CField
08 January 2024 05:33:30
Not looking good for southern counties today....everything has been shunted north 200 miles again.....
Favourite snowstorm
Famous channel low
Dec 31st 1978
Hastings East Sussex
Foot of level snow severe drifting
Next day max temp -4 degrees Celsius
doctormog
08 January 2024 07:19:51
An extra little feature at day 8 or so on some of the output this morning for the same pattern overall and cold from the weekend (and of course the next few days in many places)

This is the GEFS mean at day 6: https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSAVGEU00_144_1.png 

At day 10: https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSAVGEU00_240_1.png 

The UKMO Iis similar (as far as it goes which is day 7) https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/UKMHDOPEU00_168_1.png 

GEM and ICON are also similar and they also show a feature at day 8 before the even colder air moves south. I suspect that feature will either be upgraded or lessened in the next run or two.
Ally Pally Snowman
08 January 2024 07:21:00
A messier picture this morning but still very good. GEFS look potentially snowy down here even better as you go north.
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Gusty
08 January 2024 07:27:17
Hmmm...this 'little feature' has the effect of delaying the cold by a couple of days. We are back to 192-240 'potential' in the south.

Even if the cold air does get to the south what is there to look forward to ? A hopeful trough or so in the NW'ly flow and an attack from the SW that could soon spell the end ?

 
Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
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Rob K
08 January 2024 07:33:55
Some of the charts are looking a bit December 2010ish this morning - and
and those in the south will know that’s not really a good thing as the cold air gets pushed too far north. 

However checking the 850mb charts the air is colder than it looks from the 500mb pattern. Given that the heavy snow often occurs on the boundary of the cold air it may be no bad thing for anyone looking for snow down here. 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Joe Bloggs
08 January 2024 07:44:17
Excellent output this morning really. Heights to our NW showing at a reasonably reliable timeframe now.

Will be a while before we nail down any detail.

The charts with the best snow potential (eg a cold unstable NW’ly with lower heights) remain out of the reliable for the time being , so still too early to get excited. 

However to have this at day 6 is good. Really good. Yesterday it was at day 7 - so no delays. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU00_144_1.png 
 

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

doctormog
08 January 2024 07:47:25

Hmmm...this 'little feature' has the effect of delaying the cold by a couple of days. We are back to 192-240 'potential' in the south.

Even if the cold air does get to the south what is there to look forward to ? A hopeful trough or so in the NW'ly flow and an attack from the SW that could soon spell the end ?

Originally Posted by: Gusty 



This is for next Monday:

GFS
UserPostedImage

UKMO:
UserPostedImage

ECM:
UserPostedImage

 

The colder air arrives from the north as before then there is the less cold feature then colder again. The cold was due to set in Sunday/Monday (north to south) with the coldest air in the period after that. The feature which may or may not be wintry is a transient one after the initial cold.

Edit: ECM 00z ensemble data is steady too.

 
Hippydave
08 January 2024 08:06:14
Seems to be an interesting tweak to the setup developing in the models - HP builds north with cold air flooding south, a lobe of the HP splits and sinks south allowing a brief milder interlude for some before a renewed cold push moves south again.  So in some ways and assuming it verifies, it's kind of a halfway house between the ECM ops collapse pattern of the other day/s and the clean HP solution. 

In general though the Ops all look consistent/good this morning if it's cold you're after. GFS ens IMBY suggest a decent chance of cold but there's still a bit of mild scatter suggesting where the cold/mild boundary sets up is unsure and may be further north. Any LPs encroaching though should up the moisture content, which is not a bad thing for more general snowfall as opposed to showers for those on windward facing coasts.

IMO it's the kind of setup that could lead to significant snow for some on the boundary and with the deep cold air hitting the North, showers would seem fairly likely for some, maybe longer spells of snow if any disturbances develop in the flow.  

All a bit far out to be looking for specifics though in terms of the general pattern verified how snowy or otherwise it'd be! As Michael says though the building blocks are mostly assembled in the reliable part of the runs now, so (my) confidence in the broad pattern (and cold for the North I'd say) is pretty high, just the specifics and how the messier interaction down South pans out TBC but looking good as it stands.
Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
Brian Gaze
08 January 2024 08:49:07

Some of the charts are looking a bit December 2010ish this morning - and
and those in the south will know that’s not really a good thing as the cold air gets pushed too far north. 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 



That was a bake down here as I've frequently noted. The flip side of the coin is that January 2013 (I think), which is rarely mentioned, brought an excellent snow event in these parts. 
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
overland
08 January 2024 09:49:21
Depends how you define "south" as 2010, like Ally Pally, we had one of the best snowy periods for years and I would describe us as south. It doesn't get better than soft, dry powdery snow (18 Dec) that leaves gloves dry when making snowmen and sledging, especially when you have young children. This included several top-ups in the following days and then the rare pleasure of eating Christmas lunch looking out on a snow covered landscape. 

Brian mentioned 2013 and that was also good here, with several relatively heavy falls, but the snow was much wetter. Other than early March last year which was only brief we haven't had a proper snow fall since, so fingers are well and truly crossed the current positive signs turn into reality. 
Mumbles, Swansea. 80m asl
nsrobins
08 January 2024 10:14:31
Lots of references to the past this morning - I have no problem with it but it clutters commentary directly related to the model outlooks.
The 06Z GFS at +144 illustrates what happens if the new ‘squeeze 2’ shortwave is not allowed to get across Greenland, delaying the arrival of the deep cold air from the North which is still on for 15th/16th.
A clean transition is preferred the further south you are.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Russwirral
08 January 2024 10:18:18

In regards to the models, I do get the feeling that we be lucky to get anything more than a passing glancing blow from the real cold.  I was hoping that given how things were tee'ing up on Thursday Friday last week that we would start to see some fireworks and drama.  Instead it all looks fairly benign before a deault return to atlantic muck.  If anything, you could say the charts have been very consistent.

 
Hippydave
08 January 2024 10:22:50

Lots of references to the past this morning - I have no problem with it but it clutters commentary directly related to the model outlooks.
The 06Z GFS at +144 illustrates what happens if the new ‘squeeze 2’ shortwave is not allowed to get across Greenland, delaying the arrival of the deep cold air from the North which is still on for 15th/16th.
A clean transition is preferred the further south you are.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 



Cold air clears the south coast by T168 - just a case of watching the HP collapse south again and if it rebuilds post that to bring another pulse of cold air in. 

I think a clean transition is unlikely now but happy to be proved wrong.

Edit: and so far the Op at least is mostly proving me wrong - there is a milder slice of air as part of the HP detaches south but it's still cold and doesn't have the same level of milder air as the 00z. 
Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge

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