theweatheroutlook

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Whiteout
08 January 2024 10:29:52

In regards to the models, I do get the feeling that we be lucky to get anything more than a passing glancing blow from the real cold.  I was hoping that given how things were tee'ing up on Thursday Friday last week that we would start to see some fireworks and drama.  Instead it all looks fairly benign before a deault return to atlantic muck.  If anything, you could say the charts have been very consistent.

 

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 



Blimey, what charts are you looking at lol
Home/Work - Dartmoor
240m/785 ft asl
+1
Tom Oxon
08 January 2024 10:31:40
Been a while since I've seen frontal snow moving down from the north as per this
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK06_210_53.png 
S Warwickshire countryside, c.375ft asl.
Brian Gaze
08 January 2024 10:31:47
GFS 06Z is a blizzard maker.

UserPostedImage
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Joe Bloggs
08 January 2024 10:33:20
Very good 06z GFS and good continuity from yesterday.

This is now day 6 https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_144_1.png 

Hopefully by this time tomorrow we’ll have the Greenland heights into the reliable (day 5). 

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
Tom Oxon
08 January 2024 10:34:13

GFS 06Z is a blizzard maker.

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



Yes, severe blizzard conditions in eastern N.I.
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK06_222_9.png 
S Warwickshire countryside, c.375ft asl.
Joe Bloggs
08 January 2024 10:34:55

GFS 06Z is a blizzard maker.

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



Yes that’s the holy grail for NW England.

The charts do have a look of December 2009 about them at the moment - however the snow risk remains out of reliable range for now. 

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
Russwirral
08 January 2024 10:35:11

Blimey, what charts are you looking at lol

Originally Posted by: Whiteout 



All of them, i'm not seeing anything hugely remarkable, and looking at the snow depth charts, apart from Northern Scotland the majority of UK remains largely snowless for the next 10 days.

I was hoping with a bit of time cooking over the weekend, that we would get into deeper cold, and more features, but it looks more like we are just on the fringe again

EDIT: the timing of my post couldnt be worse hahaa

Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
Tom Oxon
08 January 2024 10:38:59
Is that a polar low about to form east of Iceland?

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_264_1.png 
S Warwickshire countryside, c.375ft asl.
Joe Bloggs
08 January 2024 10:43:28

All of them, i'm not seeing anything hugely remarkable, and looking at the snow depth charts, apart from Northern Scotland the majority of UK remains largely snowless for the next 10 days.

I was hoping with a bit of time cooking over the weekend, that we would get into deeper cold, and more features, but it looks more like we are just on the fringe again

EDIT: the timing of my post couldnt be worse hahaa

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 



For our part of the world we need lower heights and winds to back NW’ly. There are hints that this may happen. 

Maybe you would struggle so close to the coast but with such a strong block to the NW it can be a very effective snow maker for this part of the country. Snow depth charts wouldn’t pick up this level of detail in terms of convective snow. 

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
fairweather
08 January 2024 10:50:50

Hmmm...this 'little feature' has the effect of delaying the cold by a couple of days. We are back to 192-240 'potential' in the south.

Even if the cold air does get to the south what is there to look forward to ? A hopeful trough or so in the NW'ly flow and an attack from the SW that could soon spell the end ?

 

Originally Posted by: Gusty 


It looks like it will either all end in tears or a blizzard !
S.Essex, 42m ASL
fairweather
08 January 2024 11:15:14
00z ensembles show, unsurprisingly, the big split is now from the 17th. The Op and control were in the lower portion of the scatter but not without support. (London). Gem has a channel low right at the end which has M4 corridor written all over but that is at T240 so can probably be ignored. Does seem to be a trend towards more LP at the end of several models now many still with cold air about. Also current radar showing snow from Suffolk coast and along coast south of that into Eastern Kent and Sussex as forecast.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
llamedos
08 January 2024 11:18:05
Can we please just stick to discussion of the models now......
"Life with the Lions"

TWO Moderator
+3
Ally Pally Snowman
08 January 2024 11:33:41
The GFS 6z is the best run yet . Cold sets in 14th and stays to the end 24th. Very cold over the snowfields which is most of the UK.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gfs&var=25&run=6&time=240&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref 
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
fairweather
08 January 2024 11:36:49
Light snow falling here now. Fairly fine and not enough to make an impact. Nevertheless brilliantly forecast by Darren from almost a week ago I believe!  An exact description of what the criteria needed to be and the timing, all from looking at available models. Not the first time either. Leaves the professionals for dead who were saying 7C for today back then. 🙄
S.Essex, 42m ASL
+1
Rob K
08 January 2024 11:43:37
Always nice to be looking at charts showing a cold spell continuing for even two weeks even as the sky takes on that snowy look outside the window. The 6Z GFS is a cracker. 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Russwirral
08 January 2024 11:46:37
Radar looks alot better than any models were thinking of

I reckon some places will see more than a dusting today

Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
CField
08 January 2024 11:50:17
I know it's 384hrs 6z run but that's showing what I would like to see...a bit of advection from the east and the potential for a Scandinavian High to build from it....thinking of February cold 1991 style...
Favourite snowstorm
Famous channel low
Dec 31st 1978
Hastings East Sussex
Foot of level snow severe drifting
Next day max temp -4 degrees Celsius
Gandalf The White
08 January 2024 12:38:01

Radar looks alot better than any models were thinking of

I reckon some places will see more than a dusting today

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 



A couple of the high res models were showing very light snow/sleet for much of East Anglia and the SE, but not as organised or heavy as appears to be the case.  Definitely something to keep in mind when seeing charts showing apparently zero precipitation days ahead.

It is also, as expected, colder today than the BBC charts were showing last night: currently barely 2c here, contrary to the predictions of 4-5c.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Brian Gaze
08 January 2024 12:46:11
I've just added ECM ENS 850hPa temperature data tables for UK and RoI locations. The link is:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/premium/gefs-tables.aspx 

Here's the London summary. The (X%) shows the percentage of runs dipping to or below -10C.

UserPostedImage

 
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
+1
Saint Snow
08 January 2024 12:50:14

GFS 06Z is a blizzard maker.

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 





All* get prizes!!


UserPostedImage


* almost!

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Retron
08 January 2024 12:52:14
The way the GEFS are currently bouncing around, I wouldn't like to put much faith in them. The 18z showed only a brief period of sub -5s for London, for example, with the mean at or below -5 for 3½ days. The 0z run removed some of the scatter, and therefore had about 5 days, while the 6z has much more scatter again and only 2 days at or below -5 - pretty crappy, really.

It seems there are two clusters (back to zonality or blocked), and the balance of power shifts between them with every run.

Further north it's much less of an issue. For Aberdeen the figures are 18z, 6 days; 0z 6½ days, and 6z 7 days. If anything the cold signal is strengthening up there, but down here it's far less certain.
Leysdown, north Kent
White Meadows
08 January 2024 13:09:21

I know it's 384hrs 6z run but that's showing what I would like to see...a bit of advection from the east and the potential for a Scandinavian High to build from it....thinking of February cold 1991 style...

Originally Posted by: CField 



This is exactly what I thought when I saw that final frame. Our HP merging with that massive Arctic high, meeting in the middle over Scandinavia. Looks very Jan 87 and would have the potential to deliver a 1 in 100 year event. 
 
The Dub Version
08 January 2024 13:20:27
Again glamorous charts.

Again waiting for a frost.....
 
Berkshire
+1
CField
08 January 2024 13:24:21

All* get prizes!!


UserPostedImage


* almost!

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

Fleetwood miss out
Favourite snowstorm
Famous channel low
Dec 31st 1978
Hastings East Sussex
Foot of level snow severe drifting
Next day max temp -4 degrees Celsius
fairweather
08 January 2024 13:25:00

A couple of the high res models were showing very light snow/sleet for much of East Anglia and the SE, but not as organised or heavy as appears to be the case.  Definitely something to keep in mind when seeing charts showing apparently zero precipitation days ahead.

It is also, as expected, colder today than the BBC charts were showing last night: currently barely 2c here, contrary to the predictions of 4-5c.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Exactly right. Would have been 2-3 cm cover here if the ground wasn't so warm. 45 minutes of heavy snow. Only Retron got it spot on from a few days ago.
S.Essex, 42m ASL

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