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Russwirral
08 January 2024 16:49:13
Much snowier run this, but still not in the confident window of the run.

Cold air has arrived here, fingers are numb from being outside.  

Could be a prolonged period of cold temps now
Ally Pally Snowman
08 January 2024 16:50:46
-7C Maxes for central England on this run. We can but dream
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Downpour
08 January 2024 16:54:02

I doubt the Met Office would appreciate selected/edited quoting of their forecast, which states: 

“Cloudy, with patchy light rain or drizzle for central and southern areas, although many areas staying largely dry. Sunny spells and scattered showers, wintry in places, further north, most frequent along coasts. Winds will be light with temperatures likely to be a little below average. Into the start of the following week, it is likely to turn colder as northerly winds begin to develop across of the UK and bring a risk of snow showers, particularly across the north. Further bands of light rain and drizzle may also sink south at times. There is a very small risk of a period of snow across some southern areas for a time. Confidence is low through the rest of this period, but an increased chance of unsettled conditions returning from the west.”

Anyway back on topic and the 12z output looks rather wintry so far (up to 180hr) in the same timescale as before.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



I did find the Office’s update somewhat underwhelming though - which is a surprise because even to my sceptical eye the modelling looks more encouraging now than it has done for some time. All to play for, IMO.
Chingford
London E4
147ft
Rob K
08 January 2024 16:58:05

All eyes on the Scandy high potential at the end of this GFS 12z….

 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 



Looks more like a reset to Eurosluggery. But I wouldn't care by then!
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Ally Pally Snowman
08 January 2024 16:59:23
Looks like GEM has a similar snow event to GFS but it melts in the South. A very snowy run though.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Retron
08 January 2024 17:06:02

Looks like GEM has a similar snow event to GFS but it melts in the South. A very snowy run though.
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Every run is a snowy run with GEM - it's notorious for overdoing snow on the ground! 😁Case in point - tomorrow morning's snowcover chart:

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/58/11635/gemfr_16_18vle8.png
UserPostedImage 

There's certainly a feeling of "high risk, high reward" running through the models tonight. Down here my expectations remain near rock-bottom, but I did note the raw precip type charts for GFS show quite widespread freezing rain from the Midlands dump - and that's pretty rare, not to mention dangerous! It goes to show just how marginal that snowfall is...

I took photos of the freezing rain back in 2018, it turned the windows into obscure glazed windows... quite surreal. Luckily I didn't have to drive in it, and I don't envy anyone caught out in freezing rain, it's a nightmare scenario.
Leysdown, north Kent
Hippydave
08 January 2024 17:10:32
ukmo run looks solid for cold:
UserPostedImage

850s being -11 to -12 for Northern England and Scotland, -6 to -9 for most of the south.

GFS as others have said is high risk, high reward for some (that snowmaker LP is snow, rain and back edge snow IMBY so a bit meh but obviously not going to verify as show anyway!

GEM setup wise is okay but much stronger milder push means back to rain for a chunk of the south later in the run, looks good for some though. 

Not too shabby but messy further south in the unreliable parts of the runs! 
Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
Crepuscular Ray
08 January 2024 17:13:40
Still struggling to see the charts in the new viewer on my Samsung phone Brian

GFS works sporadically but the other models are zoomed in on Labrador! I have to scroll across the Atlantic to see the UK on each frame.......I'm exhausted 😂

Also the adverts are so giant size I can't find the X to get rid of each one

I've checked all my settings, all seem ok, no problems on other sites. Can I view the charts outside TWO?

It was fine up to when the viewer format changed. I used to go through TWO/Data on the menu.
'Data' has now disappeared and I'm going through 'Chart Viewer'

Any ideas?....couldn't happen at a worse time!
Jerry
Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill
ballamar
08 January 2024 17:13:50
The midlands would do well with the runs but the infamous M4 corridor would become  an annoyance for the southern contingent. Good potential for a few though
Saint Snow
08 January 2024 17:15:14

Looks like GEM has a similar snow event to GFS but it melts in the South. A very snowy run though.
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 




It's the knife-edge when you get a low moving up from the SW into very cold air. You need the low to get far enough north to bring the PNN - snow - to your locale. But not so far north that it drags mild air and rain/thaw over you.

GFS runs the low W-E along the south coast, so north of the M4(ish), it's snow (stretching north only to a line from Fleetwood to Filey). The bulk of the fall is in S Wales/Midlands. As it passes through, it does drag down colder air over the south so they get back-edge snow.

GEM runs the low SW-NE and starts it further north. Initially, all of England (barring Cornwall) & Wales is under snowfall as the low moves in. But, as the low reaches the IRish Sea coast, it drags up mild air (widely +2-3c 850s) from the south so that the back edge is rain.

Interestingly, GEM then resets the GH block. GFS tries, but then erodes the GH with a low to our NW.



 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Retron
08 January 2024 17:18:18
Quite a downgrade on the short GEFS for London - the scatter has returned and the mean has risen a couple of degrees as a result. And the control is a sight to behold, a full-blown west-based NAO.

Incidentally the short GEFS are also still fine for Aberdeen. It's mostly a southern problem, at least at the 168-180 timeframe!
Leysdown, north Kent
Gusty
08 January 2024 17:26:28
Next week is fraught with problems for the south. I'm glad I got out in our dusting today. 

Any cold air that does arrive (on a NW'ly) will soon be in danger of an Atlantic attack a couple of days later. 

 
Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



Joe Bloggs
08 January 2024 17:31:24

Next week is fraught with problems for the south. I'm glad I got out in our dusting today. 

Any cold air that does arrive (on a NW'ly) will soon be in danger of an Atlantic attack a couple of days later. 

 

Originally Posted by: Gusty 



I don’t like the 12z runs so far either.

I’d much prefer to see a longer-lasting, cleaner, unstable Arctic NW’ly with troughs and streamers and cold air clearing way south before we start toying with low pressure systems from the south.

But what will be will be. 

All interesting stuff though and very wintry for many. 

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

Jiries
08 January 2024 17:34:52

Bit chilly over the snowfields.🥶🥶🥶🥶🥶🥶🥶🥶🥶🥶🥶🥶🥶🥶🥶🥶

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gfs&var=17&time=258&run=12&lid=OP&h=0&tr=1&mv=0#mapref 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



Beautiful teen minus temperatures over the Midlands area.  I am sure over the snow surface temps would easily surpass -20C or below.  Need gin clear skies to allow it to happen.
Brian Gaze
08 January 2024 17:34:54

Still struggling to see the charts in the new viewer on my Samsung phone Brian

GFS works sporadically but the other models are zoomed in on Labrador! I have to scroll across the Atlantic to see the UK on each frame.......I'm exhausted 😂

Also the adverts are so giant size I can't find the X to get rid of each one

I've checked all my settings, all seem ok, no problems on other sites. Can I view the charts outside TWO?

It was fine up to when the viewer format changed. I used to go through TWO/Data on the menu.
'Data' has now disappeared and I'm going through 'Chart Viewer'

Any ideas?....couldn't happen at a worse time!

Originally Posted by: Crepuscular Ray 



Can you post the URL please?
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Gusty
08 January 2024 17:37:43

I don’t like the 12z runs so far either.

I’d much prefer to see a longer-lasting, cleaner, unstable Arctic NW’ly with troughs and streamers and cold air clearing way south before we start toying with low pressure systems from the south.

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 



Agree. I can handle relatively tame -6 to -8 850Hpa's on NW'lies (even down here) if its a stable set up with at least 3 or 4 days longevity. 
Problem number one is getting it in the first place, problem number 2 is the sinking ridge and problem number 3 is the early attack from the SW, assuming of course problems number 1 and 2 resolve themselves lol.
Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



Crepuscular Ray
08 January 2024 17:42:15
https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx 

Here's the URL I'm using Brian
Jerry
Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill
The Beast from the East
08 January 2024 17:45:58

Quite a downgrade on the short GEFS for London - the scatter has returned and the mean has risen a couple of degrees as a result. And the control is a sight to behold, a full-blown west-based NAO.

Incidentally the short GEFS are also still fine for Aberdeen. It's mostly a southern problem, at least at the 168-180 timeframe!

Originally Posted by: Retron 



The dreaded west based NAO is back. Pete Tong is putting his trousers on. The train has been derailed for us southerners anyway
 
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Ally Pally Snowman
08 January 2024 17:49:19

The dreaded west based NAO is back. Pete Tong is putting his trousers on. The train has been derailed for us southerners anyway
 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 



Not really still plenty of interest. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=50893&model=gfs&var=2&run=12&lid=ENS&bw=1 
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Heavy Weather 2013
08 January 2024 18:01:20
Yes, afternoon a solid day yesterday we seem to have got backwards this afternoon for next week. I am speaking from a southern contigent perspective. As today has shown, an easterly is almost certain to bring snow and artic NW,N relies on encroachment from the SW 
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Brian Gaze
08 January 2024 18:12:03

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx 

Here's the URL I'm using Brian

Originally Posted by: Crepuscular Ray 



You should be able to use that, but the best option on TWO is (for GFS)

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs.aspx 

If you click / tap the GFS button on this page it expands to show most of the models currently on TWO, so you can select as you want.

The full list model and data inventory is this:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/model-inventory.aspx 

It has links to the models and data table, custom graphs etc.
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Chunky Pea
08 January 2024 18:20:34

Next week is fraught with problems for the south. I'm glad I got out in our dusting today. 

Any cold air that does arrive (on a NW'ly) will soon be in danger of an Atlantic attack a couple of days later. 

 

Originally Posted by: Gusty 


The inevitable messiness appearing in the charts for sure, but snow or nay, the cold is here to stay.
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 


"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Downpour
08 January 2024 18:26:55

The inevitable messiness appearing in the charts for sure, but snow or nay, the cold is here to stay.

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 



Exeter’s raw output has a less cold period later this week, albeit still chilly. Generally the outlook is firmly below average although whether snowy and memorable is uncertain for many. 
Chingford
London E4
147ft
White Meadows
08 January 2024 18:32:25
Much colder and snowier in low lying Sussex than forecast today. BBC and Met office had top temps of 3-4 for me today but it struggled to get above 1 all day. Plus the ‘drizzle’ turned out to be dry snow all day. So points deducted there too. 

 
White Meadows
08 January 2024 18:34:45
ECM - will it, won’t it? 
looks like our HP just deflates like a balloon rather than migrating anywhere at all. 
Something doesn’t seem right. 

Edit: turning out to be a peach at 192hhours 




 

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