You should be able to use that, but the best option on TWO is (for GFS)

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs.aspx 

If you click / tap the GFS button on this page it expands to show most of the models currently on TWO, so you can select as you want.

The full list model and data inventory is this:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/model-inventory.aspx 

It has links to the models and data table, custom graphs etc.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Much colder and snowier in low lying Sussex than forecast today. BBC and Met office had top temps of 3-4 for me today but it struggled to get above 1 all day. Plus the ‘drizzle’ turned out to be dry snow all day. So points deducted there too. 

 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

ECM looks promising at 192 with the blocking looking promising over Greenland 

Originally Posted by: ballamar 

ECM looks promising at 192 with the blocking looking promising over Greenland 

Originally Posted by: ballamar 

Very December 2010 by the end. Good run

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Indeed, tonight the ECM has been cast in the role of the cavalry appearing over the hill to rescue the situation.

Even better at T+216 with a rock solid block; need to see where the Op sits in the ensemble suite but pretty decent evolution as things stand.

Here’s the UK view of the 850hPa temperatures: https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=168&mode=0&map=3&type=0&archive=0 

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

Always at 240hrs though, never at 24.
Take this with a huge pinch of salt.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

Yes, there's nowhere colder in winter than the UK at T240. 😁

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Always at 240hrs though, never at 24.
Take this with a huge pinch of salt.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

Yes that run ends on a cold note but the cold moves in as has been shown for about five days now on the 14th to 15th (north to south). Just because it is looking very wintry at day 10 it doesn’t mean things are stuck at day 10. In the middle of last week I noted that t850s of -5 were due here from the north later on the 14th (Sunday), around five days have passed and the time that the -5 t850s reach here is still Sundy albeit 12 hours or so earlier than originally programmed. The always at day 10 thing is a fallacy.

What is not a fallacy though is the uncertainty in terms of extent and duration of cold and of course any snow. The GFS is one scenario, the ECM another. Both are in the same broad trend but the details of both (and resulting weather) are markedly different. 

There are no doubt many more twists and turns in the rollercoaster.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

High risk high reward setting. It all looks a bit messy on the output this evening but it also looks very very snowy in places. With variability between runs in terms of detail at that range I would expect further changes in the coming runs. The air is so cold and unstable in this setup that features look like popping up somewhere, whether that means milder or snowier rea mains very much to be determined.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

More pleasing the ecm mean, Opp must have support 
https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=216&mode=1&map=0&type=1&archive=0 
 

Originally Posted by: Polar Low 

Surprisingly good compared to the rubbish GFS gave us
 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

Today’s ECM ensemble mean for 10hPa winds has dipped close to a reversal a week from now.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-zonal-mean-zonal-wind?area=nh&base_time=202401080000 
 

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

Today’s ECM ensemble mean for 10hPa winds has dipped close to a reversal a week from now.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-zonal-mean-zonal-wind?area=nh&base_time=202401080000 
 

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

(south based IMBY alert)
Must admit after the somewhat iffy GEM and GFS for MBY, was expecting ECM to go messier than that but it ends with a massive blocking high and cold over the whole country. 

So from a down here perspective and looking at ops then ens:-

UKMO, can only see to T168 but to that point it's a fantastic run for countrywide cold.
ECM, flirts with 'meh' T144-168 but relents and drags down cold air at T216. (The train is barrelling towards us at T192).
GFS, high risk scenario but mostly cold with a brief mild incursion, amusingly flat and mild looking end in deep la la land.
GEM, allows some cold air in initially before a blob of HP slinks into France and helps nudge LP over the UK too far and we get a snow to rain event and colder air doesn't make it back over the far south, hard to say if it would post T240.

GFS ens are a bit tail on the donkey although there's a cluster that have 5 days of colder uppers. Not a lot of confidence from those but no confidence for mild winning either happily.
GEM ens are all over the place, even more so than what I've seen over the past week or two (not convinced how useful they are TBH, so much scatter even before this evening). 
ECM ens are pretty good in comparison, yes some milder scatter but a reasonable cold cluster which have 5-6 days of colder uppers.
MOGREPS, hard to tell as shorter timeframe. They show the initial cold shot around 15th Jan then there's a rise, need to see where that goes over the next couple of days.

Leaving the south centric musings aside, it's a positive picture still if you want cold, with variations on a theme. I still reckon GFS is doing the play with a new signal, overdo it thing and will moderate back towards something a bit more ECM like but as ever, more runs needed. GEM maybe doing the same - despite how well it verifies these days I always feel it goes off on one sometimes, particularly at range.  All in all there's clearly a realistic chance of a less favourable mild/cold balance for the far south but not a unanimous signal and there's a decent chance even here of 5-6 days of cold. The further north you head, the more confidence there is in a cold outcome and you'd like to think there'd be some good snow chances too. 

Originally Posted by: Hippydave