theweatheroutlook

Remove ads from site

Hippydave
09 January 2024 08:29:39
Quick post as I'm about to slide my way to work on the bike.

Variations on a theme for me again this morning. The LP engagement from the SW is stronger on GFS/GEM/ECM although that means heavy frontal snow for some. UKM looks solid as far as it goes and as others have said doesn't spin the LP up really. 

Ens for GFS and ECM look alright - decent cold clusters for a few days at least with milder options playing with LP pushing further North and the cold push/block not being as influential. 

Looks good for Scotland/Northern England, potentially some heavy snow for the Midlands (ish) and probably some parts of Northern England if the LPs do encroach, bit uncertain in the far south. So similar to last night really!
Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
Brian Gaze
09 January 2024 08:32:52
It's like watching a very good batsman facing a top class bowling attack on an uneven wicket. You still think he has a good chance of scoring runs, but also it wouldn't be a surprise if his middle stump is sent flying. Regardless, it's all good entertainment and there's no point worrying too much about how it will go.
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
+7
CField
09 January 2024 08:34:56
Great ECM ...Will probably flip flop with GFS later...the situation is very difficult to predict...its time for some shallow highs to pop up in the Baltic area which could influence the longevity of this cold snap and whether the south get paralysed or heartbroken....seeing it is January the odds must be a bit more in the south favour...
Favourite snowstorm
Famous channel low
Dec 31st 1978
Hastings East Sussex
Foot of level snow severe drifting
Next day max temp -4 degrees Celsius
White Meadows
09 January 2024 08:35:37

I know, it's shocking. Yesterday it was stuck at 168 hr and last Friday it was stuck at 240 hr. Now today it's "stuck" at 144 hr. Stupid sticking, you can almost bet money that this time tomorrow it will be stuck at 120 hr based on the trend 

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


As amusing as that might seem, ukmo only goes to 144.
 
doctormog
09 January 2024 08:37:44

As amusing as that might seem, ukmo only goes to 144.
 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 



Yes but the tedious argument is used across all the models and nothing is stuck anywhere. Which was the (very obvious) point. The timescale remains as it always has done. 

Anyway if it only goes to 144 hr how can it be stuck there when the 144hr scenario yesterday is at 120 hr today?

Edit: As Brian says it also goes to 168 hr now.
 
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Brian Gaze
09 January 2024 08:37:44

As amusing as that might seem, ukmo only goes to 144.
 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 



It goes to 168. I don't know how many times this has been stated. Also, it is the same model as MOGREPS so you can easily see whether the op run is an outlier or not.

UserPostedImage

 
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
White Meadows
09 January 2024 08:41:58

Yes but the tedious argument is used across all the models and nothing is stuck anywhere. Which was the (very obvious) point. The timescale remains as it always has done 

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

I think this was the case, which I was agreeing with up until the weekend when the ole ‘jam’ flavour crept back in. We originally had great CMA for Greenland high influenced northerly on 13th, then it started slipping… 14th, 15th… seems to keep getting delayed and diluted. But this isn’t anything unusual and should be far less surprising.
 
doctormog
09 January 2024 08:46:09

I think this was the case, which I was agreeing with up until the weekend when the ole ‘jam’ flavour crept back in. We originally had great CMA for Greenland high influenced northerly on 13th, then it started slipping… 14th, 15th… seems to keep getting delayed and diluted. But this isn’t anything unusual and should be far less surprising.
 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 



The colder air from the north was originally (when shown one week ago) supposed to reach here late in Sunday, it's now shown as around lunchtime on Sunday. The details continue to change but the consistency in the timescale for the initial cold plunge is remarkable.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
nsrobins
09 January 2024 09:11:06

Also, it is the same model as MOGREPS so you can easily see whether the op run is an outlier or not.
 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Thats new to me. Do they use the same code?
 
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Gandalf The White
09 January 2024 09:14:40

It's like watching a very good batsman facing a top class bowling attack on an uneven wicket. You still think he has a good chance of scoring runs, but also it wouldn't be a surprise if his middle stump is sent flying. Regardless, it's all good entertainment and there's no point worrying too much about how it will go.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



Very good.  To continue the sporting analogy the recent be a VAR situation developing where the offside line is the border between snow and rain.  

“Yeah, happy with that: rain.”
”Are you sure about that?”
”Yeah, definitely rain”
”But the most reliable model says snow”
”***”
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


+1
Gandalf The White
09 January 2024 09:16:18

The colder air from the north was originally (when shown one week ago) supposed to reach here late in Sunday, it's now shown as around lunchtime on Sunday. The details continue to change but the consistency in the timescale for the initial cold plunge is remarkable.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



To borrow the new phrase, “people are entitled to their own opinion, they’re not entitled to their own facts.”

🙂
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


+1
MRayner
09 January 2024 09:16:18

The colder air from the north was originally (when shown one week ago) supposed to reach here late in Sunday, it's now shown as around lunchtime on Sunday. The details continue to change but the consistency in the timescale for the initial cold plunge is remarkable.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



Have to agree with Doc, this cold incursion was shown a good while ago on the models, and looks like it’s coming to fruition as predicted , of course exact details vary every day, but it’s certainly looking like a snowy week for the north next week. Having said that, it’s been pretty Baltic this week inland, Currently -8.5C and still dropping this morning, been below zero for 38 hours, and it’s widely below -11 C around the area.  Interestingly the south of uk has an amber cold warning 🙄🙄.
Location Whisky 🥃 country, Cragganmore ,Moray, 440 AMSL
+2
Brian Gaze
09 January 2024 09:16:19

Thats new to me. Do they use the same code?
 

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 



Yes. From next year they're doing away with the deterministic run and switching to a high res control run which can be used in its place. They did an excellent presentation in October, but I'm not sure if the slides are on their website.
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
+2
nsrobins
09 January 2024 09:28:02
Individual output are isolated and taken too literally by many. The ‘theme’ is the key and this hasn't changed much for nearly a week - a migration of blocking to Greenland and an Arctic flow down across W Europe. Whilst the detail on the ground will vary right up to T0, the fact that the majority of the output and their suites have persisted with the theme and counted it down from 12 days to now 6 days is noteworthy.
A run every 6hrs and snow depth charts at 10 days might be fun to view but it doesn't add value at the range we are counting in.
EC and MOGREPS (UKM) suites continue to look solid and Im also of the opinion the GFS super low is just one of those ‘GFS’ things that will likely be gone on the next run (not that Im looking that closely of course).
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
+1
Downpour
09 January 2024 09:38:23
Indeed the dreadful cliche “high risk high reward” usually translates into “rain for the majority” in plain English weather. 

There remains a way to go to get anything memorable in the reliable for most.

But the ‘potential’ is there - although that is another cliche! 
Chingford
London E4
147ft
Essan
09 January 2024 09:57:45

  Interestingly the south of uk has an amber cold warning 🙄🙄.

Originally Posted by: MRayner 



The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) Weather-Health Alert system only operates in England 😉

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/seasonal-advice/cold-weather-alerts 
Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
+2
Saint Snow
09 January 2024 10:09:21

Have to agree with Doc, this cold incursion was shown a good while ago on the models, and looks like it’s coming to fruition as predicted , of course exact details vary every day, but it’s certainly looking like a snowy week for the north next week. Having said that, it’s been pretty Baltic this week inland, Currently -8.5C and still dropping this morning, been below zero for 38 hours, and it’s widely below -11 C around the area.  Interestingly the south of uk has an amber cold warning 🙄🙄.

Originally Posted by: MRayner 




It's different perceptions and expectations depending on how far north or south you are.

I think those in Scotland are rightfully rubbing their hands in anticipation. Those south of the M4 justifiably concerned that the cold from the north either won't even reach them or will be short-lived/not that extreme and they get rain. For those between, it's a bit flip-floppy (varying north to south)

 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
+3
Gandalf The White
09 January 2024 10:12:16

Have to agree with Doc, this cold incursion was shown a good while ago on the models, and looks like it’s coming to fruition as predicted , of course exact details vary every day, but it’s certainly looking like a snowy week for the north next week. Having said that, it’s been pretty Baltic this week inland, Currently -8.5C and still dropping this morning, been below zero for 38 hours, and it’s widely below -11 C around the area.  Interestingly the south of uk has an amber cold warning 🙄🙄.

Originally Posted by: MRayner 



It’s all relative, isn’t it…. Southerners don’t get much experience of sub-zero temperatures just as you don’t get much experience of heat waves….. 😉😃
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Downpour
09 January 2024 10:13:40

It's different perceptions and expectations depending on how far north or south you are.

I think those in Scotland are rightfully rubbing their hands in anticipation. Those south of the M4 justifiably concerned that the cold from the north either won't even reach them or will be short-lived/not that extreme and they get rain. For those between, it's a bit flip-floppy (varying north to south)

 

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 



A fair summary. From an impact perspective, we are currently at 50% of the UK population at best - and that could change for better or worse. Long way to go yet.  
Chingford
London E4
147ft
Taylor1740
09 January 2024 10:31:38
GFS looks poor again for the majority of the UK. We need that Greenland block to strengthen more as was shown on the output yesterday.
NW Leeds - 150m amsl
+1
Ally Pally Snowman
09 January 2024 10:33:16
Looks a poor GFS 6z as the GL blocking disappears very quickly but we still just about manage another Midlands snow event. 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Rob K
09 January 2024 10:34:52
The models seem to be slowly converging on a scenario that could give quite a dump of snow to the Midlands. The cold air doesn't really get entrenched in the far south before the attack from the SW arrives. But a couple of hundred miles of adjustment either way could mean either a big blizzard for the south or rain right up to the Borders.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
+3
Retron
09 January 2024 10:38:42

The models seem to be slowly converging on a scenario that could give quite a dump of snow to the Midlands.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Yes, the way it's looking is that the Midlands will be the sweet spot... while for us further south, we'll just get flooded out!

The 6z op has 30 hours of continuous rainfall across southern England, from midnight on Tuesday next week through to 6AM on Thursday.
Leysdown, north Kent
+1
Joe Bloggs
09 January 2024 10:44:22
Disappointing 06z GFS op. If it verifies - there won’t be that much of a window for widespread convective snow showers, which would be a shame! 

Was really hoping for a “drier” much colder Arctic spell before the messiness begins, but on this run the heights to our NW dilute before the cold unstable feed properly takes hold. 

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
+1
CField
09 January 2024 10:48:24
Like the potential of the 6z so far despite the breakdown ....need that Scandinavian High to build and low pressure in the Med to start drawing that real bitter air towards us for a real memorable cold spell.
Favourite snowstorm
Famous channel low
Dec 31st 1978
Hastings East Sussex
Foot of level snow severe drifting
Next day max temp -4 degrees Celsius
+2

Remove ads from site

Ads