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Whiteout
09 January 2024 13:26:28

Well the very latest UKM written extended might steady the nerves for coldies and is a clear signal in favour of there own model streams and a slap in the face of what GFS and its suite have been trending to.
This story has legs in it yet it seems.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 



Check out the Deep Dive Neil 😉
Home/Work - Dartmoor
240m/785 ft asl
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
09 January 2024 13:35:55

Yes, for the south, pretty much the way the GFS ensemble suite has been trending for the last 36-48 hours. The further north you go the more diluted and delayed the signal for a return to normality.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Agreed. If the London GEFS matched the Aberdeen one now, the forum would be in meltdown ..... 
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
Brian Gaze
09 January 2024 13:55:25

Those extended's are lagged by 24hrs. Based on yesterdays runs.

Premium customers get the correct up-to-date update.

And we know "disruption" could be an icy pavement or a leaf on the line these days with a amber warning.

Originally Posted by: The Dub Version 



I'm not saying that's wrong, but can you point to a link which confirms it?
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
doctormog
09 January 2024 13:56:28

Those extended's are lagged by 24hrs. Based on yesterdays runs.

Premium customers get the correct up-to-date update.

And we know "disruption" could be an icy pavement or a leaf on the line these days with a amber warning.

Originally Posted by: The Dub Version 



Can anyone verify whether claim is true? It seems strange that the Met Office would deliberately publish 24 hr out of date forecasts and keep the up to date ones for premium customers customers.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Gandalf The White
09 January 2024 13:58:44

Check out the Deep Dive Neil 😉

Originally Posted by: Whiteout 



I was about to make that observation: another interesting piece, highlighting the uncertainties from the middle of next week but also emphasising that the model output still favouring the cold being maintained in the south, although with a significant spread of outcomes.

Also a brief discussion about the 3-month forecast and the quite marked*, in seasonal probability forecasting terms, shift towards an overall colder and drier period - a typical El Niño winter profile in fact.

* ‘Quite marked’ meaning a shift from the more typical recent 20-30% mild to just 15% mild, with a nudge upwards for cold to average.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gandalf The White
09 January 2024 14:02:48

Those extended's are lagged by 24hrs. Based on yesterdays runs.

Premium customers get the correct up-to-date update.

And we know "disruption" could be an icy pavement or a leaf on the line these days with a amber warning.

Originally Posted by: The Dub Version 



The first graphic is based on today’s ECM 00z runs.  Why would they go back 24 hours when they have access to the most recent output?
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


+2
Retron
09 January 2024 14:03:47

Check out the Deep Dive Neil 😉

Originally Posted by: Whiteout 


It's good to know the pros are basically saying the same as us guys on here! There's one chart though which I don't think is generally available - here's a screengrab:

https://ukwct.org.uk/weather/mm.jpg 
UserPostedImageUserPostedImage
It's similar to the ECM regime type charts, but more specific - and is apparently a "super ensemble" across the runs. In fact, it looks very much like the sort of thing the fabled Decider product churns out!

The first thing that comes to mind is - how wonderful it is to see that we start off with a Scandinavian High pattern! Of course, it's what brought the easterly, but it's a very rare thing to see. The other thing is that it all starts wobbling in the middle of next week, as we know, but the 50/50 cold-vs-mild split is on Saturday, thereafter mild is more likely. Again, it matches what we're seeing in the ensemble output, and as we know most of that uncertainty - for now - is in the south. There was a very nice shot of the Aberdeen "plumes" chart from the ECM site, showing just what a great spell is on the way up there. (Also interesting that they say the reason they use the 850hPa charts is because it evens out the daytime and nighttime temperature differential - I hadn't looked at it that way, snow fiend that I am, but they're right - high summer aside, it does even things out).
Leysdown, north Kent
+3
Retron
09 January 2024 14:07:08

Can anyone verify whether claim is true? It seems strange that the Met Office would deliberately publish 24 hr out of date forecasts and keep the up to date ones for premium customers customers.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


I can't confirm it, but it intrigues me. The 46-day ECM charts, from which the extended forecast draws, are updated on Mondays and Thursdays, so that's when you'd expect that part to change. By and large it does only change a couple of times a week, but quite often on the Tuesday and Friday instead (IIRC today's extended is materially different from yesterday's offering). I'd always assumed that was because they were waiting for the Chief Forecaster's input, but perhaps they really are delaying it...

A source would be handy.
 
Leysdown, north Kent
Brian Gaze
09 January 2024 14:10:03

I can't confirm it, but it intrigues me. The 46-day ECM charts, from which the extended forecast draws, are updated on Mondays and Thursdays, so that's when you'd expect that part to change. By and large it does only change a couple of times a week, but quite often on the Tuesday and Friday instead (IIRC today's extended is materially different from yesterday's offering). I'd always assumed that was because they were waiting for the Chief Forecaster's input, but perhaps they really are delaying it...

A source would be handy.
 

Originally Posted by: Retron 



I thought the ECM extended charts now updated daily? They did an upgrade package last year (I don't have the details immediately at hand) and I thought that was one of the changes pencilled in.
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Retron
09 January 2024 14:20:25

I thought the ECM extended charts now updated daily? They did an upgrade package last year (I don't have the details immediately at hand) and I thought that was one of the changes pencilled in.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


You're right, so they do - I'd missed that one! All the more charts to absorb, in that case. 😁
Leysdown, north Kent
ballamar
09 January 2024 15:16:50
Icon looks half decent up to 120 then the fun starts
nsrobins
09 January 2024 15:40:38

Icon looks half decent up to 120 then the fun starts

Originally Posted by: ballamar 


If it’s improvements we need then the 12Z ICON is a great start. Much cleaner and direct plunge and the Az low keeps out of the mix until much later.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
+1
UncleAlbert
09 January 2024 15:47:17

Icon looks half decent up to 120 then the fun starts

Originally Posted by: ballamar 

Actually it looks more favourable for wintryness to the south than the midnight.  If it verifies up to 180hrs then it's a case of whether that trough can flirt with the South before any shenanigans from shortwaves in the the Arctic flow.
Chunky Pea
09 January 2024 15:48:25
Speaking of ECM, I'm surprised WetterZ haven't incorporated the EC 15 day mean charts along with the weeklies since these became 'free'. Also, 2m temp anomalies as a parameter as well. They still seem to be stuck in the 90s. 
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Retron
09 January 2024 15:52:14

If it’s improvements we need then the 12Z ICON is a great start. Much cleaner and direct plunge and the Az low keeps out of the mix until much later.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


Yes, if I had my way I'd want the cold to be embedded across the UK before an attack from the SW - which is what ICON provides. Incidentally if you look at the snow on the ground over France today, it only melts slowly... so that it's still there at 180! A cold week to come for both us and France if ICON is right.

(And you want a cold France if it's snow you're after when the breakdown eventually comes. FWIW, today with an easterly Dover has been exactly 3C warmer than Calais for most of the day.)
Leysdown, north Kent
Ally Pally Snowman
09 January 2024 16:16:02

Icon looks half decent up to 120 then the fun starts

Originally Posted by: ballamar 



UKMO follows the ICON with a  very clean straight northerly right into France at 144h

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ukm&var=1&run=12&time=144&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref 
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Saint Snow
09 January 2024 16:19:34
I like this map - flow swings to a more NW'ly as the Scandi Low drifts a little westwards. Potential for some convection in that flow!!

UserPostedImage

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
+1
ballamar
09 January 2024 16:19:51
GFS quickly gets the mild in all starts to go awry for cold quite early
Ally Pally Snowman
09 January 2024 16:21:11
GFS is getting worse though . 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
+1
Retron
09 January 2024 16:22:20
Another unimpressive GFS - the breakdown rain just moves straight up to the Midlands as rain - but a decent ICON and MetO, as they have a much cleaner transition.

Looks like GEM rustles up a low south of Iceland, as it did in the 0z run - it remains to be seen whether it engages with the big Eurasian lobe of the vortex as it did in the 0z run...
Leysdown, north Kent
Saint Snow
09 January 2024 16:23:34

GFS quickly gets the mild in all starts to go awry for cold quite early

Originally Posted by: ballamar 




I throws in some weird quasi-low to the north of the UK, then fills the Scandi Low quickly

Is it all that feasible?

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Joe Bloggs
09 January 2024 16:24:18

GFS is getting worse though . 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



Yes - we get the attempted breakdown before the clean convective CAA has taken place. An annoying trend from the GFS today. 

Icon is nice though. 

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
Whiteout
09 January 2024 16:26:57
Super ICON and UKMO, GFS clearly struggling and great to see by the Met updates they are discounting it. Would be nice to see ECM follow UKMO though 🙂
Home/Work - Dartmoor
240m/785 ft asl
Retron
09 January 2024 16:28:22
Both GEM and GFS end up bringing double figures into the far south: next Tuesday for GEM, next Wednesday for GFS. At least GEM has some snowfall, briefly, for most as the rain moves in... just a shame that it tends to exaggerate snow!
Leysdown, north Kent
Ally Pally Snowman
09 January 2024 16:31:10
Lovely snowy GEM . With legs as well.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.

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