1) LP is forecast to run somewhere to the south of the UK. It does and I end up with mostly rain, north of the M4 gets buried. The next LP runs further north, I get warmer rain, northern England gets buried. 
2)LP is forecast to run somewhere to the south of the UK and bring snow to some parts of the UK but mostly rain for me, it corrects south and any precip stays mostly in the channel, maybe grazing the far SW. The next LP corrects further north rather annoyingly and I get all rain and northern England gets buried.
 

Originally Posted by: Hippydave 

I sort of agree with the sentiment although the set up looks to be LPs moving into air cold enough for it to be snow for many, rather than a deeply cold convective spell - for the south obviously, the further north you go the more it looks like convective activity, troughs etc. are the things to look for. MBY needs slightly lower 850s in this kind of setup than say Wales and the Midlands but this kind of setup has frequently delivered disruptive snowfall with 850s only a degree or two below freezing (usually with that classic M4 line meaning snow to rain for me and grinding my teeth due to somewhere not far away getting 20+ cms). 

It's not snowy and cold nirvana in the far south but if it happened roughly as shown it would be chilly/cold with at least transient snow with the boundary probably in the far south initially as it stands, moving north with time if no further cold pushes occur. 

Still, I'd agree with just flagging the 850s to counter any unrealistic expectations but not seen that on this channel, guess it helps lurkers/guests to appreciate it's not a 'guaranteed' set up for cold and snow for the whole of the UK and deep and crisp and even is very much less likely for the far South. I'd be confident of at least some temporary lying snow even here though as it stands but this'll no doubt wobble around over the next few days and it wouldn't be a great surprise to see the snow/rain/milder boundary move north a touch.

Must admit I totally forgot the GEM in my model check this morning and that shows a route to a longer cold spell after frontal snow for some. Pinch of salt required as the op has swung around a fair bit into FI and the ens are a mess but nicely highlights one of the realistic colder routes with some frontal snow at times.   

Originally Posted by: Hippydave 

The M4 thing always puzzles me because it is a man made feature and has no effect on the weather per se. But it is so often the boundary. But if you think about it the weather is almost always colder the further north you go irrespective of the charts. The Kent and Surrey Hills probably extend the line south a bit as it moves east. High ground like the Chilterns and Cotswolds run fairly parallel with the M4 and if you are building a motorway you don't want to go over any high hills if you can help it. So there is the real reason why it appears to be the boundary and it is that crucial 1C. I am right on that boundary line in Essex but on low ground. Frequently places just ~30 miles north like Chelmsford, Harlow and Bishops Stortford do better in these situations so I reckon Ally Pally might be ok .😀

Originally Posted by: fairweather 

06z trying to build an easterly again later on. That’s 3 runs on the go now. 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

The Midlands snow event goes into France . But we are in cold unstable air so probably better. You would imagine snow could turn up anywhere. Another good rub
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Or maybe:
3) Deepening low tracks along the E Channel, dragging very cold air in from the east and delivering an 8hr blizzard of 1891 proportions to all areas SOUTH of the M4 😉❄️

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

Don't know what you're rubbing but we don't need to know😳😉

If we can get a scandi high to play ball, and with all that brutal cold over there, we could be in 47 territory with the amount lows the Atlantic been dishing out.

Now thats a ramp!😁

Originally Posted by: Snow Hoper 

The M4 thing always puzzles me because it is a man made feature and has no effect on the weather per se.

Originally Posted by: fairweather 

I guess I'm alone in being rather underwhelmed this morning 🤨

The big snow from the SW showing yesterday for a swathe of the country  - most importantly, MBY - has gone.

I've been through too many winter events where people to the north, south, east and west delight in their snow and this region is either dry or gets a pretty pointless cm or so.

This smacks of one of those.
 

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

It messy, its uncertain but its generally on the cold side of messy most of the time. That's good enough for me ! 

Originally Posted by: Gusty 

I know many people might be dissapointed in the details, but I have never seen such robust, broad and iron clad agreement for a cold spell before I don't think.

The -6C T850hpa line is near London. This is bonkers

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

This is going to deliver, I've never been so confident in that.

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

Deliver what, though?

Cold but dry (for most)?

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

I think everywhere north of the M4 will see some decent snow this cold spell (enough to make a snowman)
 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

I think everywhere north of the M4 will see some decent snow this cold spell (enough to make a snowman)
 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

Not really for me Matty, one good fall that was it....(was in Oxfordshire then though, not sure what it was like down here then)..

Originally Posted by: Whiteout