I wonder how often that has happened in the last 50 years? Deep snow blanketing virtually the whole of the UK is rare. 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

I guess I'm alone in being rather underwhelmed this morning 🤨

The big snow from the SW showing yesterday for a swathe of the country  - most importantly, MBY - has gone.

I've been through too many winter events where people to the north, south, east and west delight in their snow and this region is either dry or gets a pretty pointless cm or so.

This smacks of one of those.
 

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

Might not be concurantely though. My criteria allows for transient periods of snow across more southern areas too. That being said, deep snow across most of the UK is an optimistic end, yet definitely possible outcome here.
 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

Might not be concurantely though. My criteria allows for transient periods of snow across more southern areas too. That being said, deep snow across most of the UK is an optimistic end, yet definitely possible outcome here.
 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

Fair enough. 👍 when I lived in York in the 1980s it was often the case that there was disruptive to the south, east and north!

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Hope you're right, but I'm sceptical - especially for the big Gtr Manchester/Liverpool/Cheshire/West Lancs conurbation (away from the Pennines/Peak)

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

I agree with Saint, its looking very dry, with any LP delivering any precip bumped to the fringes of the UK.

Of course it will be cold, we will be stuck under HP most of the time.  From what I can see, the block wont be to the north or East, it will be over the UK.  It just doesnt explicitly say it in the charts currently.

Unless we start to see a move away from HP cells dominating, I fear this could go down an even drier outlook than whats being forecast.

 

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 

I know many people might be dissapointed in the details, but I have never seen such robust, broad and iron clad agreement for a cold spell before I don't think.

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

I agree with Saint, its looking very dry, with any LP delivering any precip bumped to the fringes of the UK.

Of course it will be cold, we will be stuck under HP most of the time.  From what I can see, the block wont be to the north or East, it will be over the UK.  It just doesnt explicitly say it in the charts currently.

Unless we start to see a move away from HP cells dominating, I fear this could go down an even drier outlook than whats being forecast.

 

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 

My best guess at present based on the 06z GFS run. 

Sunday - very cold northerly arrives. Snow showers for the usual suspects (north facing coasts)

Monday - pressure builds slightly and winds fall lighter, slightly less cold. Snow showers continue near exposed coasts but perhaps turning to sleet. 

Tuesday - turning colder as the day goes on. Band of rain and sleet with snow on the back edge moving south through Scotland and Northern England. All snow on high ground. Winds back NW’ly and heavy snow showers then push into Western Scotland, North Wales, NI and perhaps NW England/NW Midlands overnight. 

Wednesday - even colder. Snow showers in many northern and western areas giving a covering in places. Snow showers becoming more organised towards the end of the day as winds back more WNW’ly. Perhaps a band of
more organised snow into NW Scotland, with the threat of heavy snow into the far SW of England and the Channel Islands. 

No point going any further than that  

The 06z also has to verify  😉 



 

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 

You double-dosed on the prozac this morning?

😁

The way I see the GFS 6z is:

Tuesday - snow-bearing front moving south over Scotland into northern England but fizzling out as it does so, as pressure builds from the west. Very fragmented by the time it reaches the Gtr Manchester/Merseyside/Cheshire area, giving just very patchy, light snizzle.

Wednesday - pressure too high over western England for showers, but plenty of snow showers over Scotland. Further south, a Channel low gives snow to southern areas.


Some of the charts yesterday - excluding GFS - were amazingly snowy for a band between the south Midlands up to around the Ribble-Tees line.

I want those back!!!  😊😆😊

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

No! Just 50mg of sertraline these days! 😊

I stand by my analysis of the charts (GFS 06z op). I think you are under-egging the potential and the depth of cold but if I am wrong then fair enough. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_162_2.png 

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 

I think it’s also just scarring. While we have been rewarded, too often things go wrong. 

Anyways, I’m sure the 12z GFS will throw a terrible run and the scatter will be back again to throw us off.

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 

I think it’s also just scarring. While we have been rewarded, too often things go wrong. 

Anyways, I’m sure the 12z GFS will throw a terrible run and the scatter will be back again to throw us off.

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 

Doh! Lol 🤣

If we can get some decent snow on the ground then get  Scandi high that really would be dreamland. 
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

No change in today's met office update.  Still suggesting good chance of a high impact snow event somewhere next week.  Will the GFS 12z bring it back?

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

ICON gets the models off to a flyer !

Originally Posted by: ballamar