I’d expect them to come up here in a couple of months. On a different note the timing of this initial northerly has been remarkably consistent on the model output even if what follows it has not been as clear cut.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Not if it means waiting til next winter of course 🤣🤣

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

Hi Tally - I feel your frustration where you are on the English Riviera. I don't think the models have been poor, but what we see is understandably affected by our expectations. After some of the output of recent days it would be disappointing not to see at least a bit of snow next week but I have a feeling the MetO will now start the process of easing away from the wintry outlooks in their extended texts today. If you are a fan of GFS then it might be some weeks before the next opportunity of HLB and a cold flow returns to model land - and the days are getting longer.
I might be wrong of course - the next GFS OP might show a snow-laden Northeasterly for everyone but even if it did I don't think the outlook would be any clearer.
I have been very quiet with my forecast group about next week - as it stands that was a wise move.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

UKMO 168 chart is pretty special 😍

Originally Posted by: Whiteout 

The iPhone app uses the IBM model. I'm not sure if that is available anywhere.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Dreadful grammar aside, I've highlighted the bit which stands out to me. That's the first mention of the breakdown, and the fact they mention it being "likely" means there's relatively high confidence in it happening.

Bah, I was hoping for a better outlook, one more conducive to a longer cold spell.
 

Originally Posted by: Retron 

Ah that again. It's only winter until the Equinox (which is the 20th March this year) for:
1) Druids
2) People hoping to see a decent snowfall before 'winter' is over

For all other purposes, including and most importantly data collection (astronomical seasons are unequal lengths) and analysis, scientific description and general common sense, winter is Dec, Jan and Feb
 

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

Yes, it is backed up by the GFS ensembles showing a few cold days for Monday, then, whilst a spread all of the perts trend milder. Even Scotland now looks like a decent 5 days then warming up. There has been cross model support for a northerly plunge and intra models run after run. There have only been minor blips - till now. It is starting to look like the default UK cold snap of a few days, maybe some snow but prolonged cold is almost off the agenda. As usual 3 days out. Or could this be the year when the models go in reverse during the initial cold?

Originally Posted by: fairweather 

Still plenty of time for changes but from thnking about Scandi highs in the longer term, it now looks as though the most likely scenario is an extremely unsettled and LP dominated spell from the end of next week, with a gradual return to normal temps (and lots and lots of rain)

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Still plenty of time for changes but from thnking about Scandi highs in the longer term, it now looks as though the most likely scenario is an extremely unsettled and LP dominated spell from the end of next week, with a gradual return to normal temps (and lots and lots of rain)

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Again by the time you get to next Friday the GFS op run is significantly milder than the ensemble mean which paints a chillier picture at that time point: https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSAVGEU12_192_2.png  

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Can I just follow MetO please? On the 18th (168hr) there is still a strong north flow with -10 uppers in N Scotland and -5 well clear of the south coast

I'm in the Lakes with friends 19th-21st. Would be nice if the Fells are white and the Lakes frozen 🤞🤞

Can't look at GFS......it would be wet and windy 🤢

Originally Posted by: Crepuscular Ray 

Yes that mean has the -5 850 clear of the south coast too! Why is the Op so different?

Originally Posted by: Crepuscular Ray 

Again by the time you get to next Friday the GFS op run is significantly milder than the ensemble mean which paints a chillier picture at that time point: https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSAVGEU12_192_2.png  

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

UKMO has some intriguing low dew points on this run for northern areas

Originally Posted by: ballamar 

iPhone app was showing 7c for here a week on Saturday during the day…….its now showing   minus 1c lol

Originally Posted by: fullybhoy 

A bit chilly at times too. 

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

A bit chilly at times too. 

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

-14 C on my house in south Edinburgh and also around the Lakes 😮 That should ensure a wintry scene in The Lakes on the 19th.....if I can get there!! Is that a -25 C in the Southern Uplands 😲

Originally Posted by: Crepuscular Ray