theweatheroutlook

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Brian Gaze
11 January 2024 17:54:46

A bit chilly at times too. 

UserPostedImage


Originally Posted by: doctormog 



I'm assuming snow cover is playing a role there, but I've not looked at the output yet. I spoke to their chief operational meterologist last year and he suggested the following as possible causes of error:

1) Snow covering itself
2) The smoothings and assumptions/implications snow cover has for lapse rates

He went on to say the UKV should peform better.
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
doctormog
11 January 2024 17:57:54
I suspect the model is overdoing the extent of the minima but I have seen a good number of models showing minima approaching -20°C in parts of Scotland over the past few days. As you say though it is certainly dependent on snow cover being in place.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Joe Bloggs
11 January 2024 18:08:27
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_48_1.png 

A stunning t+48 chart from the 12z ECM 🤣.

Let’s see what this run does. I’m a bit gutted that the heights to our NW are due to relax so quickly in most of the output - often when it comes to snow, it takes a day or so for the convection to properly kick in. 

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
+1
White Meadows
11 January 2024 18:25:56

Yes, that is the great fear. I think White Meadows outlined this risk earlier this week. Let us hope it doesn't transpire. 

Originally Posted by: Downpour 


It’s a very real possibility and one that’s increasingly likely run by run.
Whether it’s someone’s cup of tea or not and if (or more bizarrely why) it rubs certain elitists up the wrong way by merely pointing it out is a different matter entirely. 
Let’s see if ECM joins the potential rainfest for the end of next week. Hopefully not but we can’t put the blinkers on to possible threats of further flooding. 
 
+1
Joe Bloggs
11 January 2024 18:28:57
Lovely run so far! 

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
doctormog
11 January 2024 18:30:29

Lovely run so far! 

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 



Very cold and at times unsettled. Interesting ingredients!
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
White Meadows
11 January 2024 18:30:32
Is that a Polar low at 144 east of Scotland…
CField
11 January 2024 18:35:20
Some deep cold plunges going into the States  next week or two. 
Favourite snowstorm
Famous channel low
Dec 31st 1978
Hastings East Sussex
Foot of level snow severe drifting
Next day max temp -4 degrees Celsius
Ally Pally Snowman
11 January 2024 18:35:48
Well the ECM certainly looks snowy. Completes a good set of 12s.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Chunky Pea
11 January 2024 18:36:47

Is that a Polar low at 144 east of Scotland…

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 


Unlikely as it hasn't a 'warm core'. Most likely developing on interacting with relatively milder air on its journey southwards. 
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Heavy Weather 2013
11 January 2024 18:38:02

Well the ECM certainly looks snowy. Completes a good set of 12s.
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



lol - we are really being put through the ringer arnt we. 
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
moomin75
11 January 2024 18:39:38

Well the ECM certainly looks snowy. Completes a good set of 12s.
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


It doesn't Ally. Low pressure too far south, just skimming south east Kent.
Ties in with what Chris Fawkes just showed on BBC News.
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
+1
Ally Pally Snowman
11 January 2024 18:41:59

It doesn't Ally. Low pressure too far south, just skimming south east Kent.
Ties in with what Chris Fawkes just showed on BBC News.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 



If it verified liked that I'd be very surprised if there was no snow. Even without the snow maker low.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
ballamar
11 January 2024 18:43:36

Is that a Polar low at 144 east of Scotland…

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 



polar lows are smaller scale features on usually a straight northerly. Simply looks like a low
fullybhoy
11 January 2024 18:44:27

A bit chilly at times too. 

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



A nice -21 over my house there! Memories of 1995 if that came off!
Aldo
Glasgow 165m/asl
 
+1
ballamar
11 January 2024 18:47:33
Slide ECM slide!
Joe Bloggs
11 January 2024 18:49:44

Slide ECM slide!

Originally Posted by: ballamar 



oh well 🤣

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
ballamar
11 January 2024 18:52:47

oh well 🤣

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 



nevermind 😂
Brian Gaze
11 January 2024 18:53:56
ECM bringing in the Atlantic. In southern and central regions it all seems to depend on the mid-week event. 


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Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
+2
MStewart
11 January 2024 18:54:07
Possible snow event from north west on latest meto at t114+?

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ukmhd&var=1&time=12&run=12&lid=OP&h=0&tr=6&mv=0#mapref 

The weekend northerly looks like more intense cold and a more southerly reach on this run too
Mark
Twickenham
12m ASL
Joe Bloggs
11 January 2024 19:03:00
Taking the GFS and ECM op runs at face value, and the GEFS - it looks like milder air will take over UK-wide next weekend.

We’re looking at a week-long cold spell. 

 

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
Brian Gaze
11 January 2024 19:03:29

Possible snow event from north west on latest meto at t114+?

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ukmhd&var=1&time=12&run=12&lid=OP&h=0&tr=6&mv=0#mapref 

The weekend northerly looks like more intense cold and a more southerly reach on this run too

Originally Posted by: MStewart 



Here:

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Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
+1
nsrobins
11 January 2024 19:05:03

ECM bringing in the Atlantic. In southern and central regions it all seems to depend on the mid-week no event. 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



You cant box this one up and hide it in a layer of drivers and signals. The increasing evidence is this will be a 6 day spell then the Atlantic returns.
I hope many get something out of it. 

 
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Chunky Pea
11 January 2024 19:08:15



We’re looking at a week-long cold spell. 

 

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 



I have a feeling that it won't be that clear cut. 
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
doctormog
11 January 2024 19:08:41
I have had a trawl back through all the charts I have saved in the last week or so and the period around the 21st has signalled a general end of the cold spell. That of course could change.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 

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