IMANSF22           14.0c           Nicks'1BATH75       12.2c
Metcheck             12.88c             Anomaly             1.47c
Netweather          13.1c               Anomaly             1.8c
Peasedown St JOHN  10.6c         Anomaly              -0.1c.    

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TWO 13.2C to 09/05

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/cet-tracker.aspx 
 

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Hadley

13.1 to the 9th

2.0c above the 61 to 90 average
2.4c above the 81 to 10 average

I've gone way too low. I don't know what I was thinking.

😠

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Never write your prediction off so early in the month. I did that in April and ended up winning!

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I’ve gone for 13.5c and I’m happy with it at this stage.  But at this stage last month, I was happy with my high guess, then look what happened.  As Col said, don’t write it off yet HT!  

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14c for Mansfield and I’m not surprised.  We’ve had some warm days in the past week. 

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Worth mentioning that yesterday was exceptionally warm in the CET record - easily in the top 5% for maxima.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/graphs/2024/daily_maxtemp_cet_2024.png 

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I think today might be too. 

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IMANSF22           14.0c            Nicks'1BATH75    12.2c
Metcheck             12.22c               Anomaly         1.82c
Netweather          13.49c               Anomaly         2.2c
Peasedown St John  12.35c           Anomaly         2.15c.          

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Hadley

13.5 to the 10th

2.3c above the 61 to 90 average
2.7c above the 81 to 10 average

TWO tracking Hadley very well at the moment:

To 10 May the TWO tracker is:

13.5°C

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/cet-tracker.aspx 
 

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IMANSF22            14.2c         Nicks'1BATH75        13.1c
Metcheck             13.46c             Anomaly             2.06c
Netweather          13.73c             Anomaly             2.44c
Peasedown St John  10.51c         Anomaly             -0.39c.               

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It feels like we are trundling towards another monthly CET which is well above average. After the current dry, sunny spell finishes, we still remain mild , perhaps warm at times. More unsettled but no sign of chilly nights  It might be one we look back at and wonder how come it was so warm. 

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Hi all, sorry it was so late 

May predictions are below in ascending order. 
There is a 2.5c spread between the lowest and highest predictions. Obviously, we have had a very warm start. We have all gone too low. Will that be maintained, increased, or, like April, will it drop down? With almost three weeks left, the only more significant signal appears to be some wetter weather.
  
hungry tiger                      11.00
All-time CET average        11.24
artzeman                           11.46
Gavin D                             11.90
1991 - 2020 Average         11.91
Sussex snow magnet         12.10
Splinter                              12.12
kendalian                           12.15
stormchaser                       12.32
frank h                               12.35
Spring Sun Winter Dread  12.50
rickm                                  12.55
dingle rob                          12.60
Saint Snow                         12.70
snowshoe                           12.70
taylor1740                          12.80
bertwhistle                         12.82
redmoons                          12.85
ap snowman                      12.90
bolty                                  12.90
gezm                                  12.90
windywillow                       12.93
lanky                                  13.02
grandad                             13.10
Dickieboy68                      13.13
scillydave                          13.15
Col                                    13.23
caz                                    13.50
jmm2005                          13.50

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Hadley

13.7 to the 11th

2.6c above the 61 to 90 average
2.9c above the 81 to 10 average

Three days in a row now that have been in the top 5% warmest days... I suspect today will be the fourth, then we should get back closer to normal.

The HadCET annual tracker says we only need an anomaly of 1.34 for the rest of the year to get the wamest year since 1659...

Comparison with Extreme Annual CETs:-The highest annual mean CET ever recorded was 11.15, which is 1.68 higher than normal. To beat this record the
anomaly must be higher than 1.34 for the remainder of this year
 

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To 11 May the TWO tracker is:

13.8°C

1961-1990 2.7°C
1971-2000 2.8°C
1981-2010 2.4°C
1991-2020 1.9°C
1659-2020 2.6°C

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/cet-tracker.aspx 
 

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I,m waiting to see whether the annualised CET can beat the record this year for  ANY 12 month period

That one still has a way to go being currently held by May 2006 - Apr 2007 at 11.66C

The current 12month period of May 2023 - Apr 2024 is 11.31C but June 2023 was very warm at 17,0C so it may face a setback after the end of this month when Jun 2024 replaces 2023

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A very warm GFS this evening, with warm continental air pretty much always on top of the UK. If it keeps showing this, then there's surely the chance of a very significantly warm May. Perhaps the first 14°C May?

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IMANSF22            14.8c            Nicks'1BATH75        13.4c
Metcheck              13.78c              Anomaly              2.38c
Netweather           14.04c              Anomaly              2.75c
Peasedown St John  13.12c           Anomaly              2.32c.     

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Certainly a chance I'd say. Justin mentioned that May 1833 had a CET of 15.1C but you correctly imply that we've not recorded a May CET in the 14s because the next warmest was 13.9C

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HadCET 14.0°C to 12th.

I see the same period in 2008 notched up a CET average of 15.2°C but ended up on just 13.4. 

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IMANS22            13.0c        Nicks'-1BATH75    13.4c
Metcheck            13.89c             Anomaly        2.99c
Netweather         14.13c             Anomaly        2.84c
Peasedown St John  12.2            Anomaly       1.3c. 

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May

To 13 May the TWO tracker is:

14.2°C

1961-1990 3.1°C
1971-2000 3.2°C
1981-2010 2.8°C
1991-2020 2.3°C
1659-2020 3°C

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/cet-tracker.aspx 
 

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