theweatheroutlook

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DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
24 April 2024 06:57:47
Exact date Arctic vortex brings monster gales and plunges temperatures by 15C
Temperatures will plummet by more than 15C in the space of three days, and so the balmy weekend will appear a distant memory by midweek when northerly winds will hit.

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-weather-exact-date-artctic-32647723 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
30 April 2024 21:35:49
Thomas Sch ... you-know-who on BBC this evening suggesting some good electrical displays for central S England tomorrow (Wed) evening. Here's hoping!
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Matty H
28 May 2024 17:45:56
Quite relieved to see the media reports of the Met Office forecasting a washout summer, as they were so totally and utterly wrong with last summer’s forecast, it can only bode well. 
Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
cultman1
28 May 2024 17:50:41
I hope you are right! I have a hunch this summer is going to be awful but we will see
NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
01 June 2024 07:05:59
I love this from the local forecast.
Some reconnoitring light before dawn perhaps to make sure the coast is clear before the main event at sunrise?

Latest forecast for Hampshire, Dorset and the Isle of Wight
Last updated 55 minutes ago
Today
Today, there will be lengthy sunny spells interspersed with a few areas of patchy cloud. It will be largely dry albeit the odd spot of drizzle cannot be ruled out under the thickest cloud. Warmer.
Tonight
Tonight will remain largely dry with clear spells for most. However, a few patches of light could may edge in from the east towards dawn.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2633623 

 
Vale of the Great Dairies
South Dorset
Elevation 60m 197ft
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
04 June 2024 07:25:56
Daily Mirror predicting a heatwave from June 13th with 28C for the southeast
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
cultman1
04 June 2024 10:11:17
Interesting not sure this will happen based on current synoptics with below average temperatures forecast for the foreseeable 
Ally Pally Snowman
04 June 2024 10:32:48

Interesting not sure this will happen based on current synoptics with below average temperatures forecast for the foreseeable 

Originally Posted by: cultman1 



Latest GFS has 25c. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gfs&var=17&run=6&time=225&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref 

Warm up looks likely,  how warm? Who knows.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Ally Pally Snowman
05 June 2024 19:39:58
Pretty good BBC monthly for a settled and warm end to June. They seem fairly confident.  Let's hope so.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook&ved=2ahUKEwie883OmsWGAxUrQEEAHSqDCrsQFnoECAQQAQ&usg=AOvVaw2M_JboRpqPYi5zC3B9vv0C 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Jiries
05 June 2024 22:06:13

Latest GFS has 25c. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gfs&var=17&run=6&time=225&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref 

Warm up looks likely,  how warm? Who knows.
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



This stupid cold weather have to come to the end as there so much warm to heat everywhere so should easily tap any warmth here and it summer season that need adhering.
johncs2016
06 June 2024 08:45:54

This stupid cold weather have to come to the end as there so much warm to heat everywhere so should easily tap any warmth here and it summer season that need adhering.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 



True, but where is this cold weather in the winter when we're actually looking for it.

For the vast majority of the time, it's usually always warmer than average but now that we're into the so-called "summer" and the very time of year when we actually want it to be warmer than average, it suddenly ends up being colder than average.

You just really couldn't make that up!!🤢
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
doctormog
09 June 2024 09:00:35
The latest BBC forecast with Matt Taylor has it turning colder into the start of the next week. Decidedly unsummery.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Super Cell
09 June 2024 17:13:18

Pretty good BBC monthly for a settled and warm end to June. They seem fairly confident.  Let's hope so.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook&ved=2ahUKEwie883OmsWGAxUrQEEAHSqDCrsQFnoECAQQAQ&usg=AOvVaw2M_JboRpqPYi5zC3B9vv0C 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



It might as well say 'no idea - anyone got a coin?'.
Farnley/Pudsey Leeds
40m asl
bledur
09 June 2024 17:53:52
Rob K
17 June 2024 17:38:37
UK long range weather forecast
Saturday 22 Jun - Monday 1 Jul
A change to cloudier weather with outbreaks of rain, these most prevalent in the west of the UK, is expected to be well underway by the start of the forecast period. However, this may not last too long, as it continues to look increasingly likely that a drier, warmer, and settled spell will begin to develop later this coming weekend, and into the following week. There is a small chance that this could persist for much of the rest of the period, turning increasingly hot, however by mid-next week a large range of outcomes which also include a small chance of colder, more unsettled weather also become possible. Generally settled, and warmer than average conditions appear most likely.
Updated: 15:00 (UTC+1) on Mon 17 Jun 2024

I'll take that small chance please!
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
cultman1
17 June 2024 18:54:47
To be honest its pathetic, they always cover themselves with every possible outcome in these extended forecasts. In other words they dont have a clue. I am no expert but I notice more and more nowadays they are trying to cover their tracks in case they get the next 7-14 days medium range forecasts incorrect. In previous times they would offer more definitive long range modelling even if they got it wrong... I also notice on the Met Office App they veer towards  cloud cover  symbols and  at the last minute when conditions change for more summery weather the sun symbols make an appearance. Thoughts anybody?.
Jiries
17 June 2024 21:07:23

To be honest its pathetic, they always cover themselves with every possible outcome in these extended forecasts. In other words they dont have a clue. I am no expert but I notice more and more nowadays they are trying to cover their tracks in case they get the next 7-14 days medium range forecasts incorrect. In previous times they would offer more definitive long range modelling even if they got it wrong... I also notice on the Met Office App they veer towards  cloud cover  symbols and  at the last minute when conditions change for more summery weather the sun symbols make an appearance. Thoughts anybody?.

Originally Posted by: cultman1 



Same on apple apps they always show white clouds never sunny symbols and as you said it getting worst and worst.  Today was meant to be dry with sunny spells but alas was overcast and totally unexpected outbreak of rain around lunch time.  I have completely stop watching those for years now due to poor forecasting, I would trust the forecasts in 3rd world countries to be honest.
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
02 July 2024 13:15:00
The Met Office Contingency Planners 3 month forecast is out now for July to September. In recent years, September has felt like a summer month, at least for more southern parts.
They are quite bullish that above average temperatures will prevail with rainfall and wind near average.  We shall see! 
Full details here;

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/3moutlook_jas_v2.pdf 
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
Rob K
09 July 2024 09:27:14
From the Met Office today for London and SE England:
Today:
Cloud and outbreaks of rain will erratically clear northwards during the morning, with brighter skies following. Heavy and thundery showers breaking out in the afternoon. An area of heavy rain and thunderstorms may clip Kent and Sussex. Warm and humid. Maximum temperature 20 °C.

Since when did a max of 20C in July count as "warm"? Average or slightly below, is it not?
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Retron
09 July 2024 09:53:21

From the Met Office today for London and SE England:
Today:
Cloud and outbreaks of rain will erratically clear northwards during the morning, with brighter skies following. Heavy and thundery showers breaking out in the afternoon. An area of heavy rain and thunderstorms may clip Kent and Sussex. Warm and humid. Maximum temperature 20 °C.

Since when did a max of 20C in July count as "warm"? Average or slightly below, is it not?

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


It's sloppy, isn't it - yesterday's offering said "feeling warm and humid", which is I think a better fit (it can feel warm without actually being warm, just as it can feel cold when temperatures are above-average for the time of year).

It's only 18C here at the moment, but it's true to say that the 17.4C dewpoint (95% RH) makes it feel much warmer than 18C would suggest!
Leysdown, north Kent
NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
09 July 2024 10:37:34

It's sloppy, isn't it - yesterday's offering said "feeling warm and humid", which is I think a better fit (it can feel warm without actually being warm, just as it can feel cold when temperatures are above-average for the time of year).

It's only 18C here at the moment, but it's true to say that the 17.4C dewpoint (95% RH) makes it feel much warmer than 18C would suggest!

Originally Posted by: Retron 


Sloppy indeed. Much the same temp here (17C) though we're in a spell of moderate to heavy rain.
I've even had the fan heater on in the office for a few minutes to take the chill/or rather the damp out of the room.
I'm wearing a sweater and gilet too. Glad I'm not working outside today.
Vale of the Great Dairies
South Dorset
Elevation 60m 197ft
Rob K
09 July 2024 11:58:46

Sloppy indeed. Much the same temp here (17C) though we're in a spell of moderate to heavy rain.
I've even had the fan heater on in the office for a few minutes to take the chill/or rather the damp out of the room.
I'm wearing a sweater and gilet too. Glad I'm not working outside today.

Originally Posted by: NMA 


It's one of those days where it actually feels warmer outside the house - there is a warm and muggy feeling, even if it's not really warm.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
cultman1
09 July 2024 13:59:34
Constant rain, grey leaden skies , so depressing with no end in sight  for some proper sun and warmer days  . Temperatures remain depressed for mid July and next week looks like the same perhaps with less rainy spells . 
ozone_aurora
09 July 2024 17:30:15

From the Met Office today for London and SE England:
Today:
Cloud and outbreaks of rain will erratically clear northwards during the morning, with brighter skies following. Heavy and thundery showers breaking out in the afternoon. An area of heavy rain and thunderstorms may clip Kent and Sussex. Warm and humid. Maximum temperature 20 °C.

Since when did a max of 20C in July count as "warm"? Average or slightly below, is it not?

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


I stepped outside in Sheffield this afternoon. It was only 20 C, but it felt really warm and sultry, so yes, the Met Office would have been correct. I initially thought I was heat intolerant but soon realised was because of the very high humidity. It felt like being in a tropical house. On the day it was 39 C in Sheffield 2 years ago, it certainly felt hot, but not unbearably so, as the air was very dry.
ozone_aurora
09 July 2024 17:36:33
Btw, a line quite big thunderstorms currently affecting the near continent. I don't think that lot clipped Kent. There are also isolated thunder over parts of central/NW England.

See https://www.lightningmaps.org/?lang=en#m=oss;t=3;s=0;o=0;b=0.00;ts=0;y=51.0552;x=-8.6792;z=5;d=2;dl=2;dc=0;

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