theweatheroutlook

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warrenb
19 February 2024 13:08:35

Just posting some highlights here from the BBC long-rangers over the past month or so...

Posted 17 January:
Monday 29 January to – Sunday 11 February
Possibly colder by mid-February

Posted 20 January:
Monday 5 February to – Sunday 18 February
Possibly turning colder again in February

Posted 24 January:
Monday 5 February to – Sunday 18 February
Possibly colder by mid-February

Posted 27 January:
Monday 12 February to – Sunday 25 February
Possibly turning colder mid to late February

Posted 31 January:
Monday 12 February to – Monday 25 March
Possibly turning colder than average mid-February

Posted 3 February:
Monday 19 February to – Sunday 3 March
Colder than normal

Posted 14 February:
Monday 26 February to – Sunday 10 March
Chilly at times, especially in the north.

Posted 17 February:
Monday 4 March to – Sunday 17 March
Milder for a time. Possibly colder mid-month

Here we are on Feb 19th and the monthly CET was 4.6C above average, when I last looked.
If you keep calling for a cold spell you've got to be right eventually, right? My prediction is it will arrive in late July, just as the schools break up.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


They are very clever though because they don't put the year 😀
Tonbridge 45m 
+1
Ally Pally Snowman
19 February 2024 13:19:27
Currently the CET is 8.6c . So it should have said possibly record breakingly mild. That's how wrong they have been. 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Gandalf The White
19 February 2024 13:19:56

They are very clever though because they don't put the year 😀

Originally Posted by: warrenb 



Or the country....

😀
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gavin D
21 February 2024 12:13:04
BBC Monthly Outlook

Summary
Unsettled and chilly at times

Wednesday 21 February to – Sunday 25 February
Unsettled and turning chillier

Monday 26 February to – Sunday 3 March
Remaining changeable. Possibly a bit milder later

Monday 4 March to – Sunday 17 March
Milder for a time. Possibly colder mid-month

Further ahead
In the next update on Friday, we will see if models continue to suggest chances of a colder set-up, and we will take a look at the prospects for later March.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook 
Zubzero
22 February 2024 00:51:01
https://www.gbnews.com/weather/uk-weather-collapse-of-ocean-conveyor-belt-temperature-drop-freezing?dicbo=v2-JsA2zeF 

What a misleading headline, was hoping I'd see a dusting before my times up 😔 
White Meadows
22 February 2024 21:26:40
As the month draws to a close, with no cold weather, easterly or northerly in sight, another Shockingly poor ‘outlook’ much fabled from earlier in the month and late Jan from Met office becomes exposed. 
I’d love to believe their nod towards calm, warm and settled into mid March but one cannot hold much faith in their skills beyond a few days. This has been the case all winter IMO. You’d have to conclude not much has changed since the 80’s on an accuracy level. 

 
MRayner
22 February 2024 22:17:16

As the month draws to a close, with no cold weather, easterly or northerly in sight, another Shockingly poor ‘outlook’ much fabled from earlier in the month and late Jan from Met office becomes exposed. 
I’d love to believe their nod towards calm, warm and settled into mid March but one cannot hold much faith in their skills beyond a few days. This has been the case all winter IMO. You’d have to conclude not much has changed since the 80’s on an accuracy level. 

 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 


Totally concur, The language they use  covers every conceivable outcome that suggests it’s still “ best guess” as to the long term outlook.
If you produced a month ahead outlook by sticking to the monthly averages ,you wouldn’t be far off being correct !! 
it’s nearly as accurate as predicting the winner in the Grand  National horse race 😜
 
Location Whisky 🥃 country, Cragganmore ,Moray, 440 AMSL
tallyho_83
23 February 2024 01:39:50

BBC Monthly Outlook

Monday 4 March to – Sunday 17 March
Milder for a time. Possibly colder mid-month

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 



Like a guessing game really "Possibly colder"

As per the Met Office said "Colder Mid Month in FEBRUARY" and this never materialised as did the Met Office talk of "Colder weather more likely" which was the forecast for early February when we were in January along with "milder weather less likely". Yet here we are on 22nd February with CET of 4.8c above normal and many places in south not recording one single air frost combined with no cold weather in the forecast either and the winter ends next week! Every day the south at least has seen double figure temperatures with most days in the low teens even by night as well. We will start March on a mild and wet note despite a 2nd or 3rd SSW.  

Wait until spring arrives and we will get frost and snow. My guess is Summer will be a washout and then when kids go back to school we will get dry and warm weather around 2nd and 3rd of February as per 2023. Models have been poor beit DWD, BCC, ECM, MET O, JMA, CFS, GFS etc etc all went for a cold and blocked February and that was an epic fail. 

Weather seems to know the "I know a song that get's on your nerves!" doesn't it
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Roger Parsons
23 February 2024 06:03:29
Ironic to be seeing February's "Snow Moon" tomorrow.... 🌕 [if I can borrow the US name.]
https://www.rmg.co.uk/stories/topics/full-moon-calendar 
RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
MRazzell
23 February 2024 08:34:33

As the month draws to a close, with no cold weather, easterly or northerly in sight, another Shockingly poor ‘outlook’ much fabled from earlier in the month and late Jan from Met office becomes exposed. 
I’d love to believe their nod towards calm, warm and settled into mid March but one cannot hold much faith in their skills beyond a few days. This has been the case all winter IMO. You’d have to conclude not much has changed since the 80’s on an accuracy level. 

 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 



I seem to recall their predictions for the January spell were very accurate. This has also been the case with the track and intesity of a number of named storms. Whilst they can't be right every time i think theres a bit of confirmation bias in this comment.

They've been consistently right when it matters IMO.
Matt.
Gavin D
24 February 2024 11:28:58
BBC Monthly Outlook

Summary
Becoming milder. Less unsettled in early March

Saturday 24 February to – Sunday 3 March
Becoming milder but changeable

Monday 4 March to – Sunday 10 March
Unsettled with above-average temperatures

Monday 11 March to – Sunday 24 March
Possibly turning colder after mid-month

Further ahead
In the next update on Wednesday, we will see if we can confirm the milder one or two weeks that we are expecting, and if there are any more signs of a colder spell later in March.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook 
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
24 February 2024 17:35:35
Ground speed record for a passenger jet broken = 853mph with the aid of a 264 mph jet stream
https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/av/68385942 

(you probably know the introductory elementary meteorology - it gets more interesting at about 50 seconds in)
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Gavin D
28 February 2024 11:20:07
BBC Monthly Outlook

Summary
Chilly early March then warmer until late month

Wednesday 27 March to – Sunday 3 March
Unsettled and turning chillier

Sunday 3 March to – Sunday 10 March
Becoming milder and drier

Monday 11 March to – Sunday 24 March
Possibly turning colder after mid-month

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook 
+1
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
28 February 2024 11:59:42
It's a relief to see that the weather is forecast to trend drier in March
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
Gavin D
02 March 2024 11:34:51
BBC Monthly Outlook

Summary
Milder for a week or two. Maybe colder late March

Saturday 2 March to – Sunday 10 March
Becoming milder and drier

Monday 11 March to – Sunday 17 March
Wetter and windier in the south than the north

Monday 18 March to – Sunday 31 March
Rather uncertain but possibly turning colder

Further ahead
In the next update on Wednesday, we will see if the longer-range models remain consistent in suggesting a downturn in temperatures later in March, and whether they are looking any colder.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook 
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
04 March 2024 17:36:17
MetO provisional stats for February and winter as a whole
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2024/february-2024-warm-and-wet-for-the-uk 
 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+2
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
05 March 2024 10:20:03

MetO provisional stats for February and winter as a whole
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2024/february-2024-warm-and-wet-for-the-uk 
 

Originally Posted by: DEW 



No surprise that the trend is warmer and wetter over the winter months. For much of my life February has tended to be a dry month, often with an easterly outbreak giving some chilly weather. In recent years it has changed drastically with far more Atlantic influence. Not great that sunshine levels are dropping even further than we already have to put up with.

I'm not really noticing the drier summers that they mention. Okay we've had a few dry and very hot spells but we seem to get frequent rain in most summers too. 
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
Gavin D
06 March 2024 19:29:50
BBC Monthly Outlook

Summary
Some chilly spells but mostly milder than normal

Tuesday 5 March to – Sunday 10 March
Drier until the weekend

Monday 11 March to – Sunday 17 March
A couple of chillier days. A few showers

Monday 18 March to – Sunday 31 March
Possibly turning colder later in March

Further ahead
In the next update on Friday, we will see if models continue to show chillier possibilities in late March and we will take a peek into early April.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook 
+1
dagspot
09 March 2024 10:29:51
I don't recall there being so many BBC News Weather repeats… suppose a reflection of frequency, but used to be unusual to see same broadcast but now all morning can be same one or just missed all together
Neilston 600ft ASL
Gavin D
09 March 2024 19:01:12
BBC Monthly Outlook

Summary
Changeable and mild then chillier later

Saturday 9 March to – Sunday 17 March
Unsettled but becoming milder

Monday 18 March to – Sunday 24 March
Risk of turning colder

Monday 25 March to – Sunday 7 April
Could we see a colder spell?

Further ahead
Are there any more signals for a colder spell over Easter at the end of this month?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook 
four
  • four
  • Advanced Member
21 March 2024 13:02:45
The Met Office site has an option to use an alternative data set for the forecasts it is unclear what they are doing.
However the differences are significant at the moment it looks much better here with trial turned on 😄
- so you can select the forecast if not the actual weather according to your preferences.

I'd suggest turn it on using alternative browser as it is only cookie based e.g chrome and firefox then you can compare.
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/website/enhanced-forecast-weather-data-trial 
North York Moors weather 
Brian Gaze
21 March 2024 13:43:55

The Met Office site has an option to use an alternative data set for the forecasts it is unclear what they are doing.

Originally Posted by: four 



You can swap data sets on TWO hourly forecasts to use UKV or Arpege, e.g.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/hourly-weather-forecast.aspx?loc=berkhamsted 

 
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Gavin D
23 March 2024 11:02:48
BBC Monthly Outlook

Summary
Unsettled and chilly then milder for a week or so

Saturday 23 March to – Sunday 31 March
Changeable and chilly for a while

Monday 1 April to – Sunday 7 April
Mild. Drier in the north than the south

Monday 8 April to – Sunday 21 April
A chance of a chillier spell, but very uncertain

Further ahead
In the next update on Wednesday, we will see if the longer range models pick up on any colder risks before mid-April.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook 
johncs2016
10 April 2024 21:15:41
I've just found this  X (formerly Twitter) feed from BBC Weather which emphasises just how wet this month has been here in Edinburgh so far as I have posted on this month's precipitation thread in particular.

As a result, I've been doing some research to find out whether or not we could be on course for our wettest April on record here in Edinburgh.

According to this  article, the actual record is 147.0 mm although there is no information there about when that record was set or which station it was set at.

At the moment, we're well short of that but since we're not even halfway through the month, that record would be smashed if the rainfall totals continue to pile up during the rest of this month by as much as they have been doing up until now.

The article suggests that even with just a few more really wet days, that record could well end up being challenged.
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
Matty H
22 April 2024 11:23:44
Met Office

”Outlook for Wednesday to Friday:

Largely settled for the outlook with some sunny spells. Otherwise mostly cloudy with occasional showers, particularly towards the end of the week.”

so which is it?
Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
+1

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