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Ally Pally Snowman
15 June 2024 07:02:43

Two miserable cold weeks in June and you think the climate has changed. What about the insane heat spikes we have had  in recent summers, never mind 40C?

Originally Posted by: Col 



I'm just having a moan.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
+2
Chunky Pea
15 June 2024 07:14:13

My fear of UK climate getting colder in Spring and summer and milder winter is seem coming to reality.  Few years back I was expecting the average for London which used to be 6C to 22C to 8C to 24C in the 90's to fall back remarkly with only Sept will the warmest month of the year.  My thought from Jan to Dec are 8.9.10.12.14.16.17.18.20,15, 12. 10.  For Birmingham just 1C lower every month instead of 7 to 23C in the 90's.

Frequent 25C was breached so easily during my hey days weather recording up to 2012 before i quit.  I becoming more hatred with this idiot climate we having problems with now.   

Originally Posted by: Jiries 



June is very much a hybrid month in my opinion, esp first half. Can alternate between violent heat and fresh late spring coolness. Coolness, no matter how bad the weather can be, just isn't a thing after the summer solstice and up to the autumn equinox. 
 
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
ozone_aurora
15 June 2024 07:22:10

Quite likely.

I think we're in autumn season now then summer will arrive in September!

Originally Posted by: ozone_aurora 


I would not discount a possibility of a July 2022 style heat spike happening this October. This means, as the highest temperature recorded was 29.9 C in 2011, we could have a high of 31 C or even 33 C! (cf 40.3 C in 2022 to 38.7 C in 2019 or 35.9 C in 1976).

The hurricane forecast is supposed to be above normal, and they can have an effect of pushing the jetstream well to the N of UK and bringing the hot air from Iberia, so making it a distinct possibility.
Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
15 June 2024 07:45:41

I'm just having a moan.
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Fair enough. You're on the right thread!
 
Col
Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg
+1
cultman1
15 June 2024 08:50:02
Cold wet and windy this morning here in Fulham . Couldn't be worse with next week at least following the same vein . Is this going to turn out to be the summer that never happened?
i know we are still in mid June but the omens do not look good 
johncs2016
15 June 2024 09:06:12

Cold wet and windy this morning here in Fulham . Couldn't be worse with next week at least following the same vein . Is this going to turn out to be the summer that never happened?
i know we are still in mid June but the omens do not look good 

Originally Posted by: cultman1 



In most years these days, our winters tend to never really happen in terms of what the actual weather is like at the time and so if this is now also starting to happen with our summers, this will further raise questions about whether or not, we are actually heading into a climate in which our weather never really changes from one time to the year to another, and which our seasons therefore end up being defined merely according to  daylight length at any given time of year, rather than the actual weather at that time.
 
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
+1
Saint Snow
15 June 2024 21:02:35
My two are at the Taylor Swift concert at Liverpool tonight.

Last few days it's been showing rain/showers through the evening - but day by day it's brought the dry-up time earlier. Still, even first thing this morning BBC were showing between 30% and 45% chance of rain till about 8pm before declining from there. Met Office better but still a good chance of ppn to 7/8pm

As it happens, the rain stopped here mid-afternoon and it's been an absolutely beautiful evening with clear, blue sky (even if a little on the chilly side)



 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Chunky Pea
16 June 2024 05:12:56
Have still to reach a 20c here this June so far. 
Happy days!
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Quantum
16 June 2024 09:17:48
Can I just say that this is one of the best June's I've ever witnessed.

Nice and cool but not cold. Cloudy enough that there isn't unpleasant dazzeling sunlight, but not a huge amount of rain or fog.

Its absolutely fantastic, no air con needed and perfect conditions for running.

More of this please.
Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
richardabdn
16 June 2024 09:26:16
Spring turned out to be only the fourth in 50 years to fail to reach 400 hours sun. The other years were 1976, 1983 and 1993. Now we are enduring a vile summer that is even worse than 1993. That was the dullest Spring/Summer in the past 80 years and it felt nowhere near as bad as this filth. Not remotely.

Horrendously cold, dull and wet. Has reached 16C only once since the 4th and there's been only one day with 10 hours sun since 22nd May while the running 12-month rainfall total continues to climb to new levels of putrifying horror. It was ludicrous a long time ago. There are no words for it now.

As cold as it's been 2005, 2007, 2009, 2010, 2012, 2015, 2016, 2019 and 2020 were all even colder. Hotter drier summers? Like hell there is. If you look back to the 1960s only the first half of June 1965 was as cold as any of that rubbish. The 1960s are no longer the nadir for summers. The 21st Century is.

Just revolting beyond comprehension. Constant wind from the N and E, and zero from the SW quarter, like nothing ever seen before in history resulting in a climate on a par with the Faeroe Islands. Every single day brings the same demoralsing unpleasant crap. A miserable soul destroying lack of seasonality that not even the most boring times in recorded history ever came close to sinking to. 

Such a long period of relentless misery and it just keeps on getting worse and worse. Now yet another stolen weekend of washout garbage for the umpteenth time this year. This constant inexplicable weekend curse, more than anything, is what makes this the worst time to be alive within living memory.

An absolutely disgusting, depressing, zero quality of live hellhole unfit for human habitation.
Aberdeen: The only place that misses out on everything


2023 - The Year that's Constantly Worse than a Bad November
2024 - 2023 without the Good Bits
Chunky Pea
16 June 2024 09:58:05


Just revolting beyond comprehension. Constant wind from the N and E, and zero from the SW quarter, like nothing ever seen before in history resulting in a climate on a par with the Faeroe Islands. Every single day brings the same demoralsing unpleasant crap. A miserable soul destroying lack of seasonality that not even the most boring times in recorded history ever came close to sinking to. 

Originally Posted by: richardabdn 


​​​​​​Medium term outlook looks a lot more 'Azoresy'. Should help to brighten up the skies in eastern Scotland hopefully. 
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Bolty
16 June 2024 10:38:39
What an awful first half of June this has been. Another morning of rain/frequent showers and feeling hideous cold for the time of year. This month is definitely giving June 2012 a run for its money now.
Scott
Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.
My weather station 
richardabdn
16 June 2024 11:50:37

​​​​​​Medium term outlook looks a lot more 'Azoresy'. Should help to brighten up the skies in eastern Scotland hopefully. 

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 



Probably still result in N or E winds with cloud here. Doesn't seem to matter what the synoptics are any more🤢

Utterly revolting day. Rain has stopped but it is still only 12C approaching 1pm under an overcast sky. Beyond dire and after I made the post this morning I noticed that the Aberdeen Highland Games have been cancelled due to the weather which I think is the first time since 2007. Even went ahead in 2012 so that speaks volumes about this unspeakably poor start to summer.

https://www.aberdeenlive.news/news/aberdeen-news/aberdeen-highland-games-cancelled-due-9346492  🤬

Yet again the only thing is as shocking as the weather is the woeful standard of forecasting. Absolutely useless and inaccurate.
Aberdeen: The only place that misses out on everything


2023 - The Year that's Constantly Worse than a Bad November
2024 - 2023 without the Good Bits
+1
Jiries
18 June 2024 10:53:35
So what happening to this phantom warm sunnier weather we supposed to be getting this week?  Results epic forecast failure, raw cold 15C and overcast thanks to HP moving in with it, it was meant to be 20C today and 21C tomorrow.  That it folks this clouds over UK are here to stay until this HP sod off.   Will see the actual sun once I am above the nasty clouds on 25th June to Philippines.  Can't wait to see and feel the actual heat that we not getting in here at all.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
18 June 2024 16:51:05
Go south, young man!

22C at Otterbourne (Winchester), Gosport and Cavendish (Stour Valley, Suffolk) recorded at 4pm, and a whole load of 21Cs up towards London  and in East Anglia.
https://www.weatherobs.com/  
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Jiries
18 June 2024 17:08:10

Go south, young man!

22C at Otterbourne (Winchester), Gosport and Cavendish (Stour Valley, Suffolk) recorded at 4pm, and a whole load of 21Cs up towards London  and in East Anglia.
https://www.weatherobs.com/  

Originally Posted by: DEW 



South coast had been very bad if you read a lot of south coast posters during this Spring and this early summer on NW forum, they are a lot worst place to live than inland areas.  Nothing to do with south or north the goal post had been moved as I caught them in the act as today meant to be 20C but epic failed.  
tierradelfuego
18 June 2024 19:39:05

South coast had been very bad if you read a lot of south coast posters during this Spring and this early summer on NW forum, they are a lot worst place to live than inland areas.  Nothing to do with south or north the goal post had been moved as I caught them in the act as today meant to be 20C but epic failed.  

Originally Posted by: Jiries 



Certainly a nice 22c down here today as well, the midlands must have had the worst of the weather then.

Enjoy your holidays, no doubt we will see a wonderful 30c+ heatwave whilst you are away 🤣
Bucklebury
West Berkshire Downs AONB
135m ASL

VP2 with daytime FARS
Rainfall collector separated at ground level
Anemometer separated above roof level
WeatherLink Live (Byles Green Weather)
Jiries
18 June 2024 21:07:27

Certainly a nice 22c down here today as well, the midlands must have had the worst of the weather then.

Enjoy your holidays, no doubt we will see a wonderful 30c+ heatwave whilst you are away 🤣

Originally Posted by: tierradelfuego 



Sadly you will get some rain later this week which is worst than here. 🤣   Typical BBC put London 25C at the start so should get some upgrades as time come near.  The most I see was in June 1996 when they put only 26C turn up to 33C forecast upgrade.  That 7C highest upgrade level.
picturesareme
19 June 2024 01:43:56

South coast had been very bad if you read a lot of south coast posters during this Spring and this early summer on NW forum, they are a lot worst place to live than inland areas.  Nothing to do with south or north the goal post had been moved as I caught them in the act as today meant to be 20C but epic failed.  

Originally Posted by: Jiries 



South coast has been very nice so far this June - 23.5C just yesterday.  Most days since late May in the 19-22C range with a few warmer ones like for example yesterday. Only 12mm of rain in last 3 weeks. Plenty of sunshine on offer too.

The only complaint would be the cooler than average night temperatures that we've had more frequent than usual but that looks now to of ended. 

Spring was a little rubbish with more rain than usual but we still had a few very warm days around the 26C mark. 
doctormog
19 June 2024 05:44:19

South coast has been very nice so far this June - 23.5C just yesterday.  Most days since late May in the 19-22C range with a few warmer ones like for example yesterday. Only 12mm of rain in last 3 weeks. Plenty of sunshine on offer too.

The only complaint would be the cooler than average night temperatures that we've had more frequent than usual but that looks now to of ended. 

Spring was a little rubbish with more rain than usual but we still had a few very warm days around the 26C mark. 

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 



It just goes to show the difference in the climate in that part of the country as parts of the south coast were one of the few areas of the UK not to have above average daily max temperatures in the spring. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/anomacts/2024/13/2024_13_MaxTemp_Anomaly_1991-2020.gif  

 
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Retron
19 June 2024 05:48:10

It just goes to show the difference in the climate in that part of the country as parts of the south coast were one of the few areas of the UK not to have above average daily max temperatures in the spring. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/anomacts/2024/13/2024_13_MaxTemp_Anomaly_1991-2020.gif  
 

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


You can't say that, though, as the anomaly shading is +0.5 to -0.5. As it's adjacent to +0.5 to +1.0 shading, and looking at the sheer size of the adjacent warm anomalies compared to the small splash of white, it's odds-on that it was in fact above average.

 
Leysdown, north Kent
doctormog
19 June 2024 06:01:43

You can't say that, though, as the anomaly shading is +0.5 to -0.5. As it's adjacent to +0.5 to +1.0 shading, and looking at the sheer size of the adjacent warm anomalies compared to the small splash of white, it's odds-on that it was in fact above average.

 

Originally Posted by: Retron 



Well technically yes I can based on the available data according to the graphics shown there based on the confidence intervals implied by the colours on the map. If you really want to be pedantic like that then the point would be that it was less warm compared with average during the day than other parts.

I suspect the reason the white shade is used in those maps would be that the -0.5 to +0.5°C degree range more often than not would not be significantly different (in statistical analysis) from the long term average when analysed, (even if at a glance ot looked warmer than average) given standard deviations and other factors. My point still stands that even if it was warmer than average there (which would need raw data and stats to show) then it was less so than elsewhere.

There may of course be a detailed statistical analysis that shows that the white area is significantly above the long term average but I have not seen that.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Retron
19 June 2024 06:18:06

Well technically yes I can based on the available data according to the graphics shown there based on the confidence intervals implied by the colours on the map. If you really want to be pedantic like that then the point would be that it was less warm compared with average during the day than other parts.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Ooh, sparks! 😂

I'll stick with my thoughts, ta very much - you were wrong to say (definitively) that the area didn't see above-average temperatures, simple as that.

I would have expected better from you, frankly, a bit of humility wouldn't go amiss!
Leysdown, north Kent
Chunky Pea
19 June 2024 06:27:09

Well technically yes I can based on the available data according to the graphics shown there based on the confidence intervals implied by the colours on the map. If you really want to be pedantic like that then the point would be that it was less warm compared with average during the day than other parts.

I suspect the reason the white shade is used in those maps would be that the -0.5 to +0.5°C degree range more often than not would not be significantly different (in statistical analysis) from the long term average when analysed, (even if at a glance ot looked warmer than average) given standard deviations and other factors. My point still stands that even if it was warmer than average there (which would need raw data and stats to show) then it was less so than elsewhere.

There may of course be a detailed statistical analysis that shows that the white area is significantly above the long term average but I have not seen that.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



Wouldn't the south of UK be warmer on average than say your area on average? If all that map was white, the south would still be warmer in the real sense, which likely would hold just as true if all the south was white and all the north in red. Anomaly maps never really tell the full story in my opinion anyway.
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
doctormog
19 June 2024 06:37:48

Wouldn't the south of UK be warmer on average than say your area on average? If all that map was white, the south would still be warmer in the real sense, which likely would hold just as true if all the south was white and all the north in red. Anomaly maps never really tell the full story in my opinion anyway.

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 



Yes but the anomalies in the map will be based on local values not UK-wide values. That was somewhat my point, despite the lower anomalies the temperatures that pictures posted were still achieved. This  is the link to the absolute averaged seasonal maxima.

Edit: One of the purposes of the anomaly maps serve is to give an impression of what the weather in your locality was like compared to what would be expected if you got the “average” weather for time period. They have their uses and their flaws.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
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