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Roger Parsons
05 July 2024 13:14:42

But we are in the official hurricane season. It runs from June until November.

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


The old mnemonic about hurricane season [1950s] in the Caribbean was:
June - too soon
July - stand by
August - come it must
September - remember
October - all over

I am always interested to compare current hurricane reports with that, looking for trends and  evidence of change.
RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
picturesareme
05 July 2024 13:32:35

The old mnemonic about hurricane season [1950s] in the Caribbean was:
June - too soon
July - stand by
August - come it must
September - remember
October - all over

I am always interested to compare current hurricane reports with that, looking for trends and  evidence of change.

Originally Posted by: Roger Parsons 


That would have been pre satellite era.. many storms would have been missed and the intensity of storms would also have been missed.  Beryls 165mph winds would never have been known back in the 1950's, and it's plausible it's intensity above Cat 3 would have been missed. 
Roger Parsons
05 July 2024 14:03:10

That would have been pre satellite era.. many storms would have been missed and the intensity of storms would also have been missed.  Beryls 165mph winds would never have been known back in the 1950's, and it's plausible it's intensity above Cat 3 would have been missed. 

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


I offered you a bit of tradition for interest P-r-Me. I'm not sure I get your point. There would have been substantial ship, aircraft and radar data available back then, never mind the land-based scientific observations, academic and amateur. Granted today's weather-related remote sensing is fantastic, they weren't stupid or unobservant back then - just working with the tools of the day and the experience of passing years. 
RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
picturesareme
05 July 2024 15:46:31

I offered you a bit of tradition for interest P-r-Me. I'm not sure I get your point. There would have been substantial ship, aircraft and radar data available back then, never mind the land-based scientific observations, academic and amateur. Granted today's weather-related remote sensing is fantastic, they weren't stupid or unobservant back then - just working with the tools of the day and the experience of passing years. 

Originally Posted by: Roger Parsons 


Sorry Roger, i missed understood the angle you were coming from. 😊 
+1
Jiries
05 July 2024 18:57:39

The old mnemonic about hurricane season [1950s] in the Caribbean was:
June - too soon
July - stand by
August - come it must
September - remember
October - all over

I am always interested to compare current hurricane reports with that, looking for trends and  evidence of change.

Originally Posted by: Roger Parsons 


Hurricanes and Northern blocking never work well together, one of them have to sod off so hope the early hurricanes will klll the northern blocking.
Roger Parsons
05 July 2024 19:24:28

Hurricanes and Northern blocking never work well together, one of them have to sod off so hope the early hurricanes will klll the northern blocking.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 


Your post does not relate to mine as far as I can see, J. But it's always good to hear from you. 😁
RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
Jiries
05 July 2024 20:36:32

Your post does not relate to mine as far as I can see, J. But it's always good to hear from you. 😁

Originally Posted by: Roger Parsons 


Yes I just wanted to post it as I notice we get good weather/ heatwaves and more settled patterns when there hurricane season start so that completely killed off northerly blocking.
DEW
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08 July 2024 06:21:00
Beryl making landfall as cat 1 hurricane, borderline cat 2, and moving on as TD to give the Great Plains a soaking.
No other developments in sight.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
DEW
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09 July 2024 06:04:02
In the end the soaking was more for the Mississippi valley than the Great Plains. 

The latest forecast for Beryl is that it will still be a distinguishable TD approaching the Gulf of St Lawrence on Thursday, so the hope that it might kick the jet stream into a different course is not out of the question.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Gandalf The White
09 July 2024 06:56:26

Feel free to take it with the met office who posted about it. I'm sure you know more than them 😉 

https://x.com/metofficestorms/status/1808966043584360895 

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


Your comment about the ‘GW agenda’ was irritating and my response was borne of that irritation.  It’s unarguable that the planet is warming and that warmer oceans provide more energy for storms.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


+1
Roger Parsons
09 July 2024 07:02:29

Your comment about the ‘GW agenda’ was irritating and my response was borne of that irritation.  It’s unarguable that the planet is warming and that warmer oceans provide more energy for storms.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


A bit of light reading from Scientific American...
"Scientists, pilots and even a Jesuit priest have tried over decades to understand some of the most ferocious storms on Earth, but climate change is making such efforts to avert damage more difficult... Global warming is fueling stronger, more destructive hurricanes while populations in high-risk coastal areas continue to grow. That means long-term adaptation plans are still needed to reduce economic losses from worsening tropical cyclones."

The Wild History - And Even Wilder Future - Of Hurricane Forecasting
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-wild-history-of-hurricane-forecasting/ 
RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
ozone_aurora
09 July 2024 07:59:47

Feel free to take it with the met office who posted about it. I'm sure you know more than them 😉 

https://x.com/metofficestorms/status/1808966043584360895 

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


I wonder if there's any link with this miserable summer we are having.
DEW
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30 July 2024 19:49:38
[I thought I'd posted  this earlier but it's vanished - maybe it's lurking in another thread ...]

A disturbance between W Africa and the Caribbean has been attracting increasingly probable forecasts of development in a week's time once it clears a layer of dry air from the Sahara blocking its path and encounters more favourable conditions north of Cuba.

If so it will become TS Debby but is thought unlikely to progress to a full-blown hurricane.

War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
DEW
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02 August 2024 07:28:19
NHC giving Debby a major upgrade this morning

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc 

Meanwhile hurricane Carlotta is trundling across the E Pacific giving no trouble  to anyone
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Roger Parsons
02 August 2024 07:33:01
August - come it must.... [Hurricane mnemonic.]
RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
Bow Echo
02 August 2024 08:09:25

Then it's GFS' turn to bring in ex-hurricane Debby (previously only shown on ECM), moving slowly N-wards off the US coast on Tue 6th but from Sun 11th making a rapid dash across the Atlantic to arrive in C Scotland 1000mb Tue 13th.DEW;1593353


It has been interesting watching the development of what will be Debby. Started as an African Easterly wave what seems days ago. Started showing on ECM as a hurricane ploughing up the Eastern Seaboard of the US. Did not show on GFS. Then disappeared from ECM, appeared on GFS. Disappeared off both. Then reappeared on GFS and on ECM as a lesser feature. Meanwhile NOAA/NHC have it trundling through the Straits of Florida and not going anywhere near the Eastern Seaboard but crashing into either the gulf coast of Florida or the panhandle of Florida/Louisiana! Talk about not having a certain track forecast. It might become a little clearer later today when a Hurricane Hunter is due to investigate, should it be deemed necessary. Fascinated to see how this works out!
Steve D. FRMetS
Burton Latimer, Kettering, Northants


DEW
  • DEW
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02 August 2024 13:09:08

It has been interesting watching the development of what will be Debby. Started as an African Easterly wave what seems days ago. Started showing on ECM as a hurricane ploughing up the Eastern Seaboard of the US. Did not show on GFS. Then disappeared from ECM, appeared on GFS. Disappeared off both. Then reappeared on GFS and on ECM as a lesser feature. Meanwhile NOAA/NHC have it trundling through the Straits of Florida and not going anywhere near the Eastern Seaboard but crashing into either the gulf coast of Florida or the panhandle of Florida/Louisiana! Talk about not having a certain track forecast. It might become a little clearer later today when a Hurricane Hunter is due to investigate, should it be deemed necessary. Fascinated to see how this works out!

Originally Posted by: Bow Echo 


https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1819023769777918430  refers to the tangle of unpredictable tracks as the 'squashed spider' look.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
DEW
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03 August 2024 07:10:15
The current disturbance is crossing Cuba as TD4, likely to become TS Debby as it emerges into the warm water of the Gulf, and now more firmly forecast to cross N Florida dumping a foot of rain before it emerges on to the Atlantic and runs up the eastern seaboard of the US. Unlikely to be a hurricane as the area it occupies is too diffuse to organise an intense circulation.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
The Beast from the East
03 August 2024 08:35:30
Wasnt it supposed to be a record year for storms? Still early in the season, but so far it hasnt happened
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
DEW
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03 August 2024 11:51:27

Wasnt it supposed to be a record year for storms? Still early in the season, but so far it hasnt happened

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Exactly so; and the websites of people who claim to know about hurricanes are displaying a mixture of 'Wait until the end of August" combined with back-pedalling on their previous forecasts, i.e. trying to have it both ways.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
picturesareme
03 August 2024 11:52:32

The current disturbance is crossing Cuba as TD4, likely to become TS Debby as it emerges into the warm water of the Gulf, and now more firmly forecast to cross N Florida dumping a foot of rain before it emerges on to the Atlantic and runs up the eastern seaboard of the US. Unlikely to be a hurricane as the area it occupies is too diffuse to organise an intense circulation.

Originally Posted by: DEW 


I've a feeling this will bomb and hit the Florida coast as a hurricane - i take a punt in a Cat 2 at least.
DEW
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04 August 2024 06:16:07

I've a feeling this will bomb and hit the Florida coast as a hurricane - i take a punt in a Cat 2 at least.

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


You may well have the jump on the professional forecasters. They now expect a slightly more southerly and longer track through the Caribbean giving time for a hurricane to form, and NHC's latest this morning not only confirms the naming of TS Debby but predicts it to be a hurricane just as it approaches the Florida coast (8am local time Monday - about 1300 BST)
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
picturesareme
04 August 2024 12:28:07

You may well have the jump on the professional forecasters. They now expect a slightly more southerly and longer track through the Caribbean giving time for a hurricane to form, and NHC's latest this morning not only confirms the naming of TS Debby but predicts it to be a hurricane just as it approaches the Florida coast (8am local time Monday - about 1300 BST)

Originally Posted by: DEW 


They have a habit of being very strong in that area, and the water is very hot so it was just a logical punt. 
DEW
  • DEW
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05 August 2024 18:44:27
Damage to the tune of $10 billion expected because t=of the excessive rainfall, that amount being more characteristic of a cat 3 +. not the cat 1 it actually was on landfall.
Georgia/S Carolina coast predicted 20-35 inches of rain within a period of 5 days or less. That area is suffering badly from drought, but what a way to end it!
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
DEW
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  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
12 August 2024 06:09:03
The latest mid-Atlantic wave has now formed itself into TD5, forecast to run across the Leeward Islands and near Puerto Rico as a TS before developing into a full hurricane (Ernesto) as it approaches Bermuda on Friday.

EDIT (13th) Ernesto now named as TS. Forecast of hurricane confirmed (though a day or so slower than above) and appearing on European synoptic charts in a week's time, but with varying predictions of track and intensity.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl

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