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The Beast from the East
24 September 2024 08:38:44

PTC 9 forecast by NHC to dodge past the western end of Cuba without landfall, and then strengthen into major hurricane (which would be called Helene) as it heads for the Florida panhandle, arriving Thursday.

Originally Posted by: DEW 


Redneck heartlands in the target zone. 
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
25 September 2024 06:53:41
NHC forecast now upgrades Helene to major hurricane (cat 3 +) on landfall Thursday.

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2024/09/tropical-storm-helene-forms-in-the-western-caribbean/  is talking about a record storm surge doing as much damage as the winds
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+1
The Beast from the East
25 September 2024 08:25:50
She is going to have to start moving fast to reach landfall estimate of Tomorrow 9pm (US time)
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Bow Echo
25 September 2024 15:32:46
NHC now has Helene a s a Hurricane as of their 10am CDT update
Steve D. FRMetS
Burton Latimer, Kettering, Northants


The Beast from the East
26 September 2024 01:14:43
Now expected to be a Cat 4, cutting right through the redneck riviera and still a hurricane in Georgia
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
doctormog
26 September 2024 06:18:58
The storm surge with Helene looks as if it could be an issue for some parts of Florida. The current suggestion is that it will be up to 20 feet in places.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Bugglesgate
26 September 2024 06:21:49

Now expected to be a Cat 4, cutting right through the redneck riviera and still a hurricane in Georgia

The Beast from the East wrote:


Going to be a rainy night in Georgia then !
Chris (It,its)
Between Newbury and Basingstoke
"When they are giving you their all, some stagger and fall, after all it's not easy banging your heart against some mad buggers wall"
+2
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
26 September 2024 06:28:43

The storm surge with Helene looks as if it could be an issue for some parts of Florida. The current suggestion is that it will be up to 20 feet in places.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Helene is enormous - not only this record-breaking surge on the west coast of Florida but also reaching across to give a (much smaller) surge on the east coast as well, and all the way up to North Carolina.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
johncs2016
26 September 2024 06:41:40

Going to be a rainy night in Georgia then !

Originally Posted by: Bugglesgate 


Looks like being a lot more than that by the sound of things.
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
doctormog
26 September 2024 06:49:22

Going to be a rainy night in Georgia then !

Originally Posted by: Bugglesgate 


Certainly is and not a good day to catch the midnight train.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/032536.shtml?rainqpf#contents 



Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
+1
nsrobins
26 September 2024 07:21:41
It’s reasonable to assume the latest blend solution of a low end Cat3 storm at landfall is about right given Helene’s reluctance to undergo RI. This could all change of course and I see no reason for Helene not to bomb in the next 18hrs. Latest geo-visual shows a ragged eye forming.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
The Beast from the East
26 September 2024 09:34:23
Yes, not developing as expected. Now only expected to be a weak Cat 3. 
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
nsrobins
26 September 2024 11:19:53

Yes, not developing as expected. Now only expected to be a weak Cat 3. 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


I wouldn’t bet against a very rapid intensification cycle in the 6hrs to landfall.
Should the double rather ragged eye wall mix out to a single closed eye then she’ll take off.

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
nsrobins
26 September 2024 12:38:36
Dawn rising on Cat2 Helene and the eye is now discrete and closed. Could go ballistic from this point.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
26 September 2024 14:02:58
Don't lose sight of TS Isaac, unusually becoming a hurricane mid Atlantic and then making a beeline for Portugal in a week's time. That's probably a contributor to the uncertainly in the general models. And there's a more conventional Cabo Verde wave with 90% odds of development. too.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+1
Gandalf The White
26 September 2024 18:17:30

Don't lose sight of TS Isaac, unusually becoming a hurricane mid Atlantic and then making a beeline for Portugal in a week's time. That's probably a contributor to the uncertainly in the general models. And there's a more conventional Cabo Verde wave with 90% odds of development. too.

Originally Posted by: DEW 


I was looking at how ECM and GFS handle Isaac so differently. The 12z GFS still wants to build high pressure in its path and steer it north. I wonder whether the 12z ECM will still show it being steered under the HP cell.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gandalf The White
26 September 2024 18:24:20

I wouldn’t bet against a very rapid intensification cycle in the 6hrs to landfall.
Should the double rather ragged eye wall mix out to a single closed eye then she’ll take off.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


Latest NHC discussion (from 4pm our time) suggests Cat 3 with two models showing Cat 4. The eye wall has tightened and Helene will be moving over a very warm ocean before landfall.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Bertwhistle
26 September 2024 18:47:51
Media has made much of the SSTs of >30C contributing to the intensification of this hurricane quoting temperatures as much as 2C above average. When we look back to the series category 5 hurricanes in 2005, for example (including Katrina) , were there significant SST anomalies then?  
Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
Gandalf The White
26 September 2024 19:57:31

Media has made much of the SSTs of >30C contributing to the intensification of this hurricane quoting temperatures as much as 2C above average. When we look back to the series category 5 hurricanes in 2005, for example (including Katrina) , were there significant SST anomalies then?  

Bertwhistle wrote:


Possibly - the 50-year trend shows ca 1c of warming of the Gulf of Mexico surface temperature, which may not seem a lot but represents a significant amount of energy input.

As you know, there are other factors that influence hurricane development besides ocean temperatures- but it’s the predominant energy source.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


+1
Gandalf The White
26 September 2024 20:04:11
There’s now coverage of the storm on the BBC website: 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/ckgmx8vm8pnt 

Now predicting a Cat 4 on landfall. A potential 6-metre storm surge will be horrendous.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


doctormog
26 September 2024 22:47:13
It is now a Cat 4 hurricane.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Gandalf The White
26 September 2024 22:53:34

It is now a Cat 4 hurricane.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


The latest NHC discussion makes for sombre reading:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/262043.shtml? 
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gandalf The White
26 September 2024 22:56:51

I was looking at how ECM and GFS handle Isaac so differently. The 12z GFS still wants to build high pressure in its path and steer it north. I wonder whether the 12z ECM will still show it being steered under the HP cell.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Interestingly, ECM has come into line with GFS now in showing Isaac not moving east towards Portugal.  This is noted on the latest NHC advisory.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gandalf The White
26 September 2024 23:00:34

Media has made much of the SSTs of >30C contributing to the intensification of this hurricane quoting temperatures as much as 2C above average. When we look back to the series category 5 hurricanes in 2005, for example (including Katrina) , were there significant SST anomalies then?  

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 


You might find this interesting:

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20240712-modern-hurricanes-are-rewriting-the-rules-of-extreme-storms 
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


+1
The Beast from the East
27 September 2024 00:49:21
Soon to make landfall. Perhaps 140mph. Worth watching CNN now
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President

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