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Brian Gaze
13 August 2024 07:15:39
Business as usual. I wonder if we could still be talking about the likelihood of 30C being reached in September.

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Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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Rob K
13 August 2024 08:34:53

Business as usual. I wonder if we could still be talking about the likelihood of 30C being reached in September.

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Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


The precip spikes seem to be melting away, for the south at least. Still some pretty warm runs in there (and a couple bringing brief shots of near-zero upper air)
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
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The Beast from the East
13 August 2024 08:43:44

Business as usual. I wonder if we could still be talking about the likelihood of 30C being reached in September.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


September is another summer month these days. I remember the old days of playing rugger in the mud at school after going back after the summer holidays. Nowadays the ground is too hard
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
+1
Jiries
13 August 2024 09:17:15

Business as usual. I wonder if we could still be talking about the likelihood of 30C being reached in September.

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Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Soon will be watching out for Sept and with my off work 2 to 19th so hope to get my first sunny heatwave or very warm prolonged sunny days.  Today a lot warmer and sunnier than yesterday one.
Saint Snow
13 August 2024 09:22:10

The precip spikes seem to be melting away, for the south at least. Still some pretty warm runs in there

Originally Posted by: Rob K 




Even just halfway up the country and a very different picture:

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Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
ozone_aurora
13 August 2024 14:29:20

Business as usual. I wonder if we could still be talking about the likelihood of 30C being reached in September.


Quite likely. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if it reached the low 30's.

September usually brings a good deal of warm, dry, sunny weather these days, at least in the SE half of UK.
Caz
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14 August 2024 02:55:36

Business as usual. I wonder if we could still be talking about the likelihood of 30C being reached in September.

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


I think it’s likely, given the way temps have yo-yo’d this summer. It’s been notable how readily it’s risen from below average one day, to above average the next, rather than a steady rise.  
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Retron
14 August 2024 04:03:19

I think it’s likely, given the way temps have yo-yo’d this summer. It’s been notable how readily it’s risen from below average one day, to above average the next, rather than a steady rise.  

Originally Posted by: Caz 


Well, it's been warm here for weeks, and will be for another week - true, there was see-sawing in both June and July, but the unusually cool start to July seems a million miles away now!

Those of us in the far SE are in a warm, dry rut at the moment, enhanced by Debbie, and until the pattern changes we're stuck with it. The MetO raw shows temperatures remaining above average all the way out to day 8, and so far every day in the last 3 weeks has been above average...

SSTs have now reached 21C in the Thames Estuary (and also locally along the East Sussex Channel coast), so not much relief from that direction... note too, how the cooler waters around the Westcountry show up, it explains why it's cooler down there.

https://www.meteociel.fr/obs/sst/2024-08-12.gif 

I think before the summer started if you said you'd have a spell of a month from late-July to late-August with warmer than average conditions, only 4mm of rain and endless sunshine, most people (not me!) would snap your arms off for it.

As I've said before, come to Kent for your holidays folks! 😂
Leysdown, north Kent
DEW
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14 August 2024 06:59:31
WX temps: fairly warm for the SE over the next two weeks, perhaps moving a little further north, but not a great deal above norm like W Europe generally. Hot weather moving N over E Europe up to S Finland, a change from the cooling previously forecast there. In week 1, heavier rain for N Atlantic (incl NW Scotland) and C Europe around the Alps; both areas persist but shrink in week 2. Becoming very dry in E Europe.

GFS Op - LP N of Scotland with W/SW winds over Britain for the next 10 days and troughs moving W-ward from time to time, first governed by the present depression then by a deeper one formed by ex-hurricane Ernesto 965mb S Iceland Thu 22nd. After that a change of pattern as a secondary spawned by Ernesto slides SE-wards, 1000mb past SW Ireland Mon 26th followed by a strong rise of pressure for N Britain as part of a ridge from Atlantic to Norway while (possibly thundery) LP sits over the SE 1015 mb Thu 29th.

ECM - similar to GFS though pressure higher esp in S until Ernesto arrives

GEM - the SE-sliding LP is generated by Ernesto as early as Thu 22nd but then the rest of Ernesto goes back to reinforcing the LP N of Scotland and W-lies return

GEFS - mean temps near norm or a little above i S or a little below in N to end of August though with a lot of variation between ens members; suggestions of warmer periods in S Fri 23rd and Wed 28th, less marked in N. A widespread brief spell of rain tomorrow Thu 15th, then in the S Mainly dry , just a little rain from time to time; in the N more persistent from Mon 19th but decreasing later.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+6
DEW
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15 August 2024 07:23:26
NB; with Ernesto rampaging across the Atlantic in a week's time (see hurricane thread) there is more than the usual uncertainty.

WX temp charts - profile for the next two weeks not showing much change; cool across N Scotland and N Scandinavia, comfortably warm (i.e. a little above norm) for NW Europe including England, hot south of the Alps. A development of extremely hot weather shown in week 2 between Black and Caspian Seas. Rain in week 1 on Atlantic and less heavy but quite widely over C Europe; in week 2 the Atlantic rain retreats W-ward and the continental stuff organises into a band from Norway to Italy, S England very dry throughout grading to wet in NW Scotland.

GFS Op - the general pattern of LP near NW Scotland and HP over France continues to the end of August (yesterday's chart showed HP developing later on but this has gone). From time to time the LP dips further S, wetter for Scotland, also affecting N parts of England (Tue 20th, Sat 24th including remnants of Ernesto which yesterday was shown as deep LP in its own right, Sat 31st).

ECM - similar to GFS except that the LPs are mostly further N and have less effect on Britain BUT Ernesto arrives and adds one extra trough traversing Britain well south on Thu 24th.

GEM - like ECM, and the Ernesto trough affecting areas even further S

GEFS - In S England, temps near or a little above norm, poor agreement between ens members but suggestions of something warmer near Fri 23rd and again a week later, very dry with tonight's rain the last significant for some time except in far SW. In the N, similar temp profile from a lower base i.e. mean a little below norm, plus a cooler spell for the next few days. Rain in many runs from Tue 20th, amounts small in most but not all cases, but larger amounts and more frequent in far NW.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+3
Saint Snow
15 August 2024 08:59:35

Even just halfway up the country and a very different picture:

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Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 




I always forget that, when you hotlink to a model chart on here, it changes with each run.

That GEFS graph looks a fair bit drier than it did when I made that post two days ago.


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
fairweather
15 August 2024 12:44:30
Amazed so little being mentioned on the forecasts and on here regarding the drought in the South East (all regions? or just Essex?). We've had just 2-3mm in the past month and that barely wet the ground. Silver Birch tree leaves now starting to go yellow and will soon start shedding them. Gardens are like dust an the pond is drying up rapidly up. Really could do with some spells of heavy rain now but can't see any in the forecast.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
cultman1
15 August 2024 13:15:50
Brian alludes to heavy rain early next week for the south . Guess what it's the bank holiday weekend looming ....
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
15 August 2024 13:17:18

Amazed so little being mentioned on the forecasts and on here regarding the drought in the South East (all regions? or just Essex?). We've had just 2-3mm in the past month and that barely wet the ground. Silver Birch tree leaves now starting to go yellow and will soon start shedding them. Gardens are like dust an the pond is drying up rapidly up. Really could do with some spells of heavy rain now but can't see any in the forecast.

Originally Posted by: fairweather 


No drought here. Certainly a very dry period - not much rain since mid-July but a few mm here and there - and it's a relief that the rain finally stopped! Water tables are falling back down and thick mud that has been in our local woods all year has dried out at last. Landscape has that lovely brown tinged late summer appearance. All good and in readiness for the inevitable autumn wind and rain not far over the horizon. 
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
doctormog
15 August 2024 13:30:12
You’re welcome to our rain. I have recorded over 45mm in the last three days alone. 
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Retron
15 August 2024 17:32:22

Amazed so little being mentioned on the forecasts and on here regarding the drought in the South East (all regions? or just Essex?). We've had just 2-3mm in the past month and that barely wet the ground. Silver Birch tree leaves now starting to go yellow and will soon start shedding them. Gardens are like dust an the pond is drying up rapidly up. Really could do with some spells of heavy rain now but can't see any in the forecast.

Originally Posted by: fairweather 


4mm here in the past 3 and a bit weeks. The dust clouds raised by my neighbour's cocker spaniel running around my garden earlier were most impressive, mind you!

Hopefully we'll both see some useable rain tonight, it seems the front will for once perk up once it reaches us... GFS suggests around 5mm here in the early hours, which is a good time... during daylight hours it'd just evaporate. The concern though is that the concrete-like soils around here will just mean the rain runs off.

Incidentally, and on a completely different subject, does anyone else on here upload weather station data to WOW? Not Warcraft, but the Met Office knock-off of Weather Underground.

The reason I mention it is that the forecasts here have become much more accurate recently, within a degree of what's seen on the ground. Coincidentally I have the only WOW station in the area and, maybe, my little weather station is being factored in to the Met Office's model. Here's a quote which raises the possibility, from a tendering document . Note the bit in bold!

"The Met Office has been operating the Weather Observations Website (WOW) since 2012, enabling members of the public to submit their weather station observations and exploiting them as an increasingly important source of third party data for use in forecast applications."
Leysdown, north Kent
+1
The Beast from the East
16 August 2024 00:45:38
The front did provide brief heavy rain but now it’s already dried up. 
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
16 August 2024 07:00:49
WX temps - the pattern of a steady gradation from cold and well below norm for Iceland to hot and well above norm for the Mediterranean continues for the next 2  weeks. SE England is perhaps a little warmer, N Scotland stays cool. Extra-hot spots in week 2 appear in SW Spain. Romania and near the Caspian. Rain over N Atlantic-facing coasts continues but that over the Alps dies out. NW Europe incl S Britain becoming rather dry, also Ukraine and S Russia.

GFS Op - The pattern of LP generally near Iceland and HP in Biscay continues for the next two weeks, with episodes in which a deeper LP develops and/or troughs affect areas further south e.g. on Tue 20th (just an extended trough), Thu 22nd (985mb Hebrides, incl remains of Ernesto), Sat 24th (locally 985mb Cape Wrath),  then a weak circulation until Sun 1st (990mb Rockall). Sat 24th is BH w/e.

ECM - similar to GFS though no clear distinction between Thu 22nd and Sat 24th, and this grouping has a trail oof rather cool N-lies on Mon 26th

GEM - Similar to GFS except that the LP on Sat 24th does not develop and indeed pressure rises over most of Britain at that time, up to 1025mb

GEFS - In the S, mean temp mostly near norm through the remainder of August, but a significant number of runs suggesting something warmer Wed 21st, Sat 24th, and Thu 29th, certainly not the 40C clickbait from some media outlets, and of course cooler in between these dates. Very little rain, a few runs have spikes in w/b Tue 20th. In the N, similar temp pattern though the emphasis is on the cooler periods between the above dates; rain begins around Tue 20th and continues in small amounts in the NE, large amounts in the NW.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+2
AJ*
  • AJ*
  • Advanced Member
16 August 2024 07:55:17

Amazed so little being mentioned on the forecasts and on here regarding the drought in the South East (all regions? or just Essex?). We've had just 2-3mm in the past month and that barely wet the ground. Silver Birch tree leaves now starting to go yellow and will soon start shedding them. Gardens are like dust an the pond is drying up rapidly up. Really could do with some spells of heavy rain now but can't see any in the forecast.

Originally Posted by: fairweather 


I'd include West Kent in the drought area, with signs such as areas of mown grass turning yellow, and rock-hard clay soil in my garden. I've been watering with the hosepipe to keep shallow-rooted plants alive.

Last night's rain (all of 2mm) is the first we've had since 3mm on 2nd August. Before that, the last rainfall of more than 1mm was on July 14th, so we've had 5mm in the last month.

Looking ahead, there's not much shown on GEFS for the London gridpoint, so we'll have to see what turns up next Tuesday.
Angus; one of the Kent crew on TWO.
Tonbridge, 40m (131ft) asl
scillydave
16 August 2024 10:17:18
I'm always amazed at the huge variations in climate over such short distances in this country.
Here in South Wales it's definitely been a wet (though not overly so) month with no sign of drought whatsoever. 
The SouthEast climate really is a much more pleasant one (barring the summer heat) than the rest of the UK.
Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.
+1
Retron
16 August 2024 10:28:55

I'm always amazed at the huge variations in climate over such short distances in this country.
Here in South Wales it's definitely been a wet (though not overly so) month with no sign of drought whatsoever. 
The SouthEast climate really is a much more pleasant one (barring the summer heat) than the rest of the UK.

Originally Posted by: scillydave 


I'd far rather have the climate we used to have - snow on the ground wasn't uncommon in winter, where seeing large areas of yellowed grass was a rarity, when you could count on rain even though the summer... and where 30C was noteworthy, not expected. It seems that down here we've moved southeast a couple of hundred miles compared to the 80s. Maybe in another 30 years we'll finally have that 80s-style Mediterranean climate!

The flipside is that our current climate is heading your way, slowly but inexorably. "You don't know what you've got 'til it's gone", as the saying goes!

EDIT: Confirmed. We now have a warmer climate here in SE England than Paris had in 1961-90. Scary, huh?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_of_Paris 

(Go down to the 61-90 airport section).
Leysdown, north Kent
fairweather
16 August 2024 10:36:09

4mm here in the past 3 and a bit weeks. The dust clouds raised by my neighbour's cocker spaniel running around my garden earlier were most impressive, mind you!

Hopefully we'll both see some useable rain tonight, it seems the front will for once perk up once it reaches us... GFS suggests around 5mm here in the early hours, which is a good time... during daylight hours it'd just evaporate. The concern though is that the concrete-like soils around here will just mean the rain runs off.

Incidentally, and on a completely different subject, does anyone else on here upload weather station data to WOW? Not Warcraft, but the Met Office knock-off of Weather Underground.

The reason I mention it is that the forecasts here have become much more accurate recently, within a degree of what's seen on the ground. Coincidentally I have the only WOW station in the area and, maybe, my little weather station is being factored in to the Met Office's model. Here's a quote which raises the possibility, from a tendering document . Note the bit in bold!

"The Met Office has been operating the Weather Observations Website (WOW) since 2012, enabling members of the public to submit their weather station observations and exploiting them as an increasingly important source of third party data for use in forecast applications."

Originally Posted by: Retron 


Yes, my drought comment worked as usual. Same here with just 4.5mm but has filled the water butts. Went outside at midnight just to get that refreshing smell of rain after a long dusty spell. I was on WOW but will have to check to see if I'm still sending. I am to Wunderground.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
fairweather
16 August 2024 10:38:34

I'd include West Kent in the drought area, with signs such as areas of mown grass turning yellow, and rock-hard clay soil in my garden. I've been watering with the hosepipe to keep shallow-rooted plants alive.

Last night's rain (all of 2mm) is the first we've had since 3mm on 2nd August. Before that, the last rainfall of more than 1mm was on July 14th, so we've had 5mm in the last month.

Looking ahead, there's not much shown on GEFS for the London gridpoint, so we'll have to see what turns up next Tuesday.

Originally Posted by: AJ* 


Yep, pretty much the same here though id get 4.5mm last night.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
sunny coast
16 August 2024 14:43:26
Up until last night was looking pretty dry here too but 13 mm gave a good watering to the gqrden last night . So now on just over an inch this month . 
Matty H
16 August 2024 15:26:32

I'd far rather have the climate we used to have - snow on the ground wasn't uncommon in winter, where seeing large areas of yellowed grass was a rarity, when you could count on rain even though the summer... and where 30C was noteworthy, not expected. It seems that down here we've moved southeast a couple of hundred miles compared to the 80s. Maybe in another 30 years we'll finally have that 80s-style Mediterranean climate!

The flipside is that our current climate is heading your way, slowly but inexorably. "You don't know what you've got 'til it's gone", as the saying goes!

EDIT: Confirmed. We now have a warmer climate here in SE England than Paris had in 1961-90. Scary, huh?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_of_Paris 

(Go down to the 61-90 airport section).

Originally Posted by: Retron 


Scary? Exciting. 
Yate, Nr Bristol
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