WX temps - much as yesterday, warmer weather consolidating and moving N over NW Europe to reach England and S Scotland in week 2, while at the same time colder weather pushes S-wards over Finland and W Russia. C Europe staying hot and S Spain becoming very hot. Rain in both weeks on the Atlantic and brushing W-facing coasts of Scotland & Norway. Most of continental Europe plus England dry.
GFS Op - broad trough moving E-wards across Britain but not really clearing until Sunday. Then a long period with LP in the Atlantic, often close to N Ireland or W Scotland and cool/unsettled for these areas, but their circulation bringing up warm/hot air from points between SE and SW for the rest of Britain (peak Thu 29th and Sun 1st maybe). On Tue 3rd the LP deepens and moves across the Outer Hebrides, and the winds swing round to a conventional W-ly through to Sat 7th though pressure remains quite high.
ECM - That LP in the Atlantic is closer to Scotland from Tue 27th and winds are from the SW so not as hot as GFS. Then a sharp difference as the LP extends into a narrow N-S trough moving E-wards and lying down the centre of Britain Fri 30th, moving SE-wards to become a centre 1010mb Holland Sun 1st with N-lies for E Britain and a ridge of HP for all the W side of Britain.
GEM - much closer to GFS than ECM, though more of a suggestion of a break in the warm spell after 30th as the position of the LP is such that winds go round W or SW.
GEFS - in the far S, heavy rain for Sat 24th with a dip in temp to follow, but from Tue 27th temp well above norm through to Sat 7th, peak 7 or 8C above norm around Fri 30th and almost no rain. For the Midlands and N England, not much rain on the 24th but some sporadic rain later, temps well above norm after 30th but not as extreme and a dip Sun 1st between two warm periods. For Scotland, temp profile like N England but rain now and also likely around Fri 30th and Wed 4th, though as ever heavy and frequent in the NW
MetO rainfall chart contradicts GEFS with heavy rain for the S moving in from the SW on Tue 27th
Edited by user
22 August 2024 07:23:22
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Reason: Not specified
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