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White Meadows
21 August 2024 22:29:41

We've had no rain this week in west Kent, and while I've never claimed it to be a desert, I think that 6mm of rain in the past 5 weeks is remarkably dry. I don't know whether this comes under the formal definition of a drought.

Perhaps it is worth taking account of the fact that people tend to comment on their own specific locality, and that rainfall amounts can vary over quite a short distance.

Originally Posted by: AJ* 


Possibly, but further unexpected showers here this evening off the back of a ‘bone dry’ forecast. Guess they could have popped up anywhere, varying greatly over a large distance?
Meanwhile, prospects for a mini heatwave continue to build ..about a week from now we could be expecting 30c in the usual SE calm spots, away from coasts. 
AJ*
  • AJ*
  • Advanced Member
22 August 2024 06:53:36

One aspect of the weather here in Fulham is the continual windy weather which has characterised much of this summer and August so far is no exception. Although it has been largely dry the temperature for this time of the year has been tempered by the  wind and the current pattern shows no sign of abating.

Originally Posted by: cultman1 


I agree about the wind this summer - it seems to me to have been unusually windy, with today's weather being a very good example. Thankfully it looks as though it will become more settled next week and continue into September, at least according to GEFS 18z London Mean Wind Speed.
Angus; one of the Kent crew on TWO.
Tonbridge, 40m (131ft) asl
DEW
  • DEW
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22 August 2024 07:17:08
WX temps - much as yesterday, warmer weather consolidating and moving N over NW Europe to reach England and S Scotland in week 2, while at the same time colder weather pushes S-wards over Finland and W Russia. C Europe staying hot and S Spain becoming very hot. Rain in both weeks on the Atlantic and brushing W-facing coasts of Scotland & Norway. Most of continental Europe plus England dry.

GFS Op - broad trough moving E-wards across Britain but not really clearing until Sunday. Then a long period with LP in the Atlantic, often close to N Ireland or W Scotland and cool/unsettled for these areas, but their circulation bringing up warm/hot air from points between SE and SW for the rest of Britain (peak Thu 29th and Sun 1st maybe). On Tue 3rd the LP deepens and moves across the Outer Hebrides, and the winds swing round to a conventional W-ly through to Sat 7th though pressure remains quite high.

ECM - That LP in the Atlantic is closer to Scotland from Tue 27th and winds are from the SW so not as hot as GFS. Then a sharp difference as the LP extends into a narrow N-S trough moving E-wards and lying down the centre of Britain Fri 30th, moving SE-wards to become a centre 1010mb Holland Sun 1st with N-lies for E Britain and a ridge of HP for all the W side of Britain.

GEM - much closer to GFS than ECM, though more of a suggestion of a break in the warm spell after 30th as the position of the LP is such that winds go round W or SW.

GEFS - in the far S, heavy rain for Sat 24th with a dip in temp to follow, but from Tue 27th temp well above norm through to Sat 7th, peak 7 or 8C above norm around Fri 30th and almost no rain.  For the Midlands and N England, not much rain on the 24th but some sporadic rain later, temps well above norm after 30th but not as extreme and a dip Sun 1st between two warm periods. For Scotland, temp profile like N England but rain now and also likely around Fri 30th and Wed 4th, though as ever heavy and frequent in the NW

MetO rainfall chart contradicts GEFS with heavy rain for the S moving in from the SW on Tue 27th
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+5
Retron
22 August 2024 17:53:26
I was hoping we'd seen the end of hot weather, now we're heading into autumn, but nope - the GFS has been ramping up the heat for the past few runs and now has 28C next Wednesday and 31C in a week's time, while the MetO has 26 and 25 respectively. Typical.

At least there's some rain in the forecast for Saturday, albeit I'll not be at all surprised if that "poofs" nearer the time just as all the other rain has recently!
Leysdown, north Kent
White Meadows
22 August 2024 20:38:29

I was hoping we'd seen the end of hot weather, now we're heading into autumn, but nope - the GFS has been ramping up the heat for the past few runs and now has 28C next Wednesday and 31C in a week's time, while the MetO has 26 and 25 respectively. Typical.

At least there's some rain in the forecast for Saturday, albeit I'll not be at all surprised if that "poofs" nearer the time just as all the other rain has recently!

Originally Posted by: Retron 


Is that when it all ends up in Brighton? 
Rob K
22 August 2024 20:40:01

I was hoping we'd seen the end of hot weather, now we're heading into autumn, but nope - the GFS has been ramping up the heat for the past few runs and now has 28C next Wednesday and 31C in a week's time, while the MetO has 26 and 25 respectively. Typical.

At least there's some rain in the forecast for Saturday, albeit I'll not be at all surprised if that "poofs" nearer the time just as all the other rain has recently!

Originally Posted by: Retron 


The iPhone app had 29C for me on Friday yesterday but today it has moderated to 24C so I assumed there had been some kind of flip to cooler weather in the models. Apparently that’s not the case and it’s just the phone app being odd?
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Jiries
22 August 2024 21:55:51

The iPhone app had 29C for me on Friday yesterday but today it has moderated to 24C so I assumed there had been some kind of flip to cooler weather in the models. Apparently that’s not the case and it’s just the phone app being odd?

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


They often undercook temperatures by few degrees plus same to Nicosia and Furnace Creek, aggressive 24 hours overcast cloud symbols, rarely sunny ones even when it was actual sunny, fictional rain when it not raining outside. and during frosty night, it extremely well over cooked temperatures as they never go lower than -1C when outside is -5C or below with deep frosts.  -1 is just slight air frost that not frozen everywhere from my West Ewell night frost data and amount of frostiness levels.  Plus -1 doesn't frost hard on the car but easily scrape off slight frost most on windscreen than side windows.

Still looking good for warming up next week and into September for warmth and hopefully first prolonged settled weather for 2024 with possible first time wall to wall sunshine.
White Meadows
23 August 2024 01:58:49

The iPhone app had 29C for me on Friday yesterday but today it has moderated to 24C so I assumed there had been some kind of flip to cooler weather in the models. Apparently that’s not the case and it’s just the phone app being odd?

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


The iPhone app is notoriously inconsistent and inaccurate. Probably because Apple buys its weather data from US based agencies such as ‘The weather Channel’, which in itself is the Metcheck equivalent in the US. 



DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
23 August 2024 07:22:43
WX temps - in week 1 Europe is getting to be hot anywhere south of a line  from the Channel to the Baltic (England still ordinarily warm, Scotland cool) with the heat consolidating in week 2 in that area (SE England really hot, some warmth reaching further N but not as far as N Scotland). Rain in week 1 locally for NW-facing coasts, still there but less in week 2, and rather dry virtually everywhere in the rest of Europe.

GFS Op - current stormy trough clears away by the end of Saturday, giving way to fresher W-lies, then from Wed 28th LP to the W or NW of Britain in conjunction with HP near Denmark brings warm or very warm weather up from the south for a long period; the western coast of Britain still cooler at times notably Fri 30th when for a couple of days pressure also drops to the SW. About Thu 5th the HP shifts to the W of Britain; although the flow is less warm, HP and fine weather persists for Britain. 

ECM - promotes a larger area of LP on the Atlantic, still not very close to Britain but enough to bring winds in from the SW rather than the hotter SE.

GEM - the position of the LP is closer so W areas a little cooler until Fri 30th when HP becomes centred over Britain

GEFS - a dip in temps to below norm Mon 26th, then climbing steadily to warm or in the S very warm by Fri 30th, dropping slowly after that but still above norm to Sat 7th. Peak of rain for the far south tomorrow then mostly dry, in the north dry at first then occasional rain from Fir 30th in some runs, always cooler and wetter in the far NW
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+6
Retron
23 August 2024 08:36:13
The GFS continues to double down on a hot, or very hot spell down here: this morning's offering has 31C on both Thursday and Friday, which would be a good 8 or 9C above average. The 18z run had an overnight minimum down here of 23C on Thursday into Friday, this morning's run has 21C. Steamy sums it up!
The MetO raw has 27 and 24C respectively for next Thursday and Friday, but we've seen many times this summer that it tends to start off low and then rise as the time approaches.
Leysdown, north Kent
Jiries
23 August 2024 10:17:32

The GFS continues to double down on a hot, or very hot spell down here: this morning's offering has 31C on both Thursday and Friday, which would be a good 8 or 9C above average. The 18z run had an overnight minimum down here of 23C on Thursday into Friday, this morning's run has 21C. Steamy sums it up!
The MetO raw has 27 and 24C respectively for next Thursday and Friday, but we've seen many times this summer that it tends to start off low and then rise as the time approaches.

Originally Posted by: Retron 


App show only average 22 here and 23 for London on Fri and saw the chart showing 31 here to 32 London. Who going to be right?  
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
23 August 2024 11:12:50

App show only average 22 here and 23 for London on Fri and saw the chart showing 31 here to 32 London. Who going to be right?  

Originally Posted by: Jiries 


I think it is largely a question of which model output is going to be right. GFS 0z Ops was at the warm end of a warm set of ensembles compared with ECM (as DEW alluded to above). ECM shows a significant cool down after midweek. I think the apps and charts are showing both ends of the range of possible outcomes.  
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
Jiries
23 August 2024 12:11:55

I think it is largely a question of which model output is going to be right. GFS 0z Ops was at the warm end of a warm set of ensembles compared with ECM (as DEW alluded to above). ECM shows a significant cool down after midweek. I think the apps and charts are showing both ends of the range of possible outcomes.  

Originally Posted by: GezM 


I criticise those idiots charts and apps if they can’t give us true outcomes as it inside FI range now.  Today going for overcast skies is mostly sunny periods and much warmer than yesterday so let it day by day and see yourself from the window.   More interested with settlement period for September than next week unknown weather forecast.
Taylor1740
23 August 2024 13:14:30

I think it is largely a question of which model output is going to be right. GFS 0z Ops was at the warm end of a warm set of ensembles compared with ECM (as DEW alluded to above). ECM shows a significant cool down after midweek. I think the apps and charts are showing both ends of the range of possible outcomes.  

Originally Posted by: GezM 


Interesting that it's the GFS going for hot weather this time rather than ECM as it normally seems to be the other way round.
NW Leeds - 150m amsl
+1
Retron
23 August 2024 15:50:58
Tomorrow's rain is interesting. The high res ICON and AROME both have 20mm+ widely across the far SE, and there appear to be two extremely heavy pulses of rain involved - one early morning, and a second very heavy pulse in the early afternoon.
Here's the 12z ICON-D2's snapshot - note the >30mm/hour rainfall over parts of Kent! Even here has 15mm/hour - and that's not an instant snapshot rate, remember, it's the total modelled rainfall for that hour.
https://images.meteociel.fr/im/34/7974/icond2_1_23_0pil2.png 
UserPostedImage
Totals by mid-afternoon are in excess of 80mm in the same areas of Kent.
https://images.meteociel.fr/im/90/13920/icond2_25_26_0nns9.png 
UserPostedImage
The global models aren't showing anywhere near as much, but looking at the high-res stuff - it really is a very narrow core of exceptional rainfall rates, and that won't be picked up by the GFS etc.
It'll be interesting to see how this pans out. If the high-res models are right, there will be widespread flooding down here by tomorrow evening.
Leysdown, north Kent
+1
Zubzero
23 August 2024 17:48:39

I criticise those idiots charts and apps if they can’t give us true outcomes as it inside FI range now.  Today going for overcast skies is mostly sunny periods and much warmer than yesterday so let it day by day and see yourself from the window.   More interested with settlement period for September than next week unknown weather forecast.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 


The apps are mostly using raw data with some tweaks I guess. The best App by far is the Met office one. By far the best since it was updated. 
+2
cultman1
23 August 2024 21:05:15
It's amazing how the Met Office is constantly changing their medium term forecasts for next week with the potential high pressure and settled conditions being forecast from Tuesday onwards . With state of the art forecasting technology it is irritating at best that they seem unable to nail down a reliable forecast indicating that the projected fine weather may well deteriorate sooner than expected . Interesting times ahead ....
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
24 August 2024 07:29:23
WX temp - still on course for a steady warming over NW Europe over the next two weeks, though not reaching so far north as previously shown around Britain - the SE gets its heat wave in week 2 but N Scotland still under the influence of a cooler Atlantic; if anything the S Baltic benefits from more extra warmth. Rain in week 1 on the Atlantic, still plaguing NW Scotland but a new development for week 2 with heavy rain for NSpain and France, just about crossing the Channel while N Britain is drier.

GFS Op - As previously, LP off W Ireland brings in warm air from the S, at its peak Wed 28th but then after a brief drop in pressure generally, HP moves in from the SW and by Sat 31st covers Britain, before moving north to persist near NW Scotland while continental LP dominates S England, far more so than previously shown.

ECM - like GFS though air is from SW not S and more breezy so not perhaps as warm; by the end of its run (3 Sep) the Hp stays around to affect Britain as a whole.

GEM - closer to ECM than GFS

GEFS - in the S becoming warm but not lasting, unlike yesterday; back to norm by Sat 31st and then a long period with temps a degree or two above norm, not the previously hotter version. After today, very dry. In the north, a similar temp profile but from a lower base, and more variation between ens members later on. Some rain but not agreed between ens members except for the NW in the middle of next week.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+3
Rob K
24 August 2024 08:03:35
Looks like the modelled "heatwave" has been curtailed but still a chance of high 20s or even 30C on Wednesday and then an extended spell of low to mid 20s for the south into the following week, which is not bad for September.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
+1
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
24 August 2024 08:45:43

Looks like the modelled "heatwave" has been curtailed but still a chance of high 20s or even 30C on Wednesday and then an extended spell of low to mid 20s for the south into the following week, which is not bad for September.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


I’d take low to mid 20’s any day, rather than 30c.  To be fair, we’ve had a lot of days like that here this summer and it’s what I consider comfortable and useable weather. 
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
+3
Jiries
24 August 2024 11:57:42

I’d take low to mid 20’s any day, rather than 30c.  To be fair, we’ve had a lot of days like that here this summer and it’s what I consider comfortable and useable weather. 

Originally Posted by: Caz 


I am more keen on the prolonged settlement of weather in September than the proposed possible cloudy warmth this week.  It was showing 31c here yesterday chart which turn out to be another heat spike so thank but no thanks. I hope September will deliver a first 30C at some point for this area that not seen one yet otherwise I saw already in Phlippines back in June for 2024.  For sure September will deliver firsrt wall to wall sunshine since last winter did.
Hungry Tiger
24 August 2024 11:58:46

I’d take low to mid 20’s any day, rather than 30c.  To be fair, we’ve had a lot of days like that here this summer and it’s what I consider comfortable and useable weather. 

Originally Posted by: Caz 


Same here.   🙂 
Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


+1
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
25 August 2024 07:27:04
WX temp charts keep hot weather going over Europe for week 1, with England still getting extra warmth though Scotland never really makes it. In week 2, cooler weather spreads in from the east, Russia quite cold, Germany much cooler and any real warmth restricted to France and (just hanging on) England and S Ireland. In week 1, dry for France and England, wet for the N Atlantic; in week2 Britain (exc far SW) and Scandinavia very dry, rain for France and Italy.

GFS Op - starts with W-lies for Britain, then LP develops near NW Scotland  and brings up the predicted warmth from the S for E Britain (though more from the SW so not the blowtorch predicted earlier) This drifts across Scotland on Thu 28th, closely followed by HP from the SW linking to Scandinavia. A broad ridge of HP then establishes across Britain through to Tue 10th though with LP from France always threating more unsettled weather for the far S and esp SW (e.g. Fri 6th). LP in week 1 in S Russia and in week 2 in Baltic states is responsible for drawing down the colder air referred to above.

ECM - the HP promised by GFS is slower to establish and does not link to Scandinavia, so although the two models look quite similar for Britain by Mon 2nd, the HP then withdraws towards Greenland allowing N-lies to encroach on N Sea coasts. LP over France is restricted to the S if that country and does not affect Britain.

GEM - similar to GFS though HP is centred further W with NE-lies threatening at end of run Tue 3rd

GEFS - brief warmth for Wed 28th, more so in the S, dropping back to norm Fri 30th, then a long period of temps a little above norm (Op considerably above as one of small group of ens members) finally cooling slightly around Sat 8th (a few v cold outliers at this time). Dry in the S to Thu 5th then some chances of rain; in the N some rain in the next few days then small chances of light rain from time to time.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+3
David M Porter
25 August 2024 08:28:26
If the models have it right, it looks as though that around next weekend there may finally be something of a pattern change allowing HP to build in to a greater extent than has been the case through most of the summer and which, if it develops as indicated, might benefit rather more of the UK than just SE England as seen recently. Let's hope so- certainly not before time!
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
cultman1
25 August 2024 09:51:57
It certainly is beginning to look that way after a cooler blip on Thursday- Friday

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