theweatheroutlook

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ozone_aurora
25 August 2024 10:18:28
Looks like some proper settled conditions as we enter September, as I thought would happen for a while now.
Retron
25 August 2024 10:43:55

Looks like some proper settled conditions as we enter September, as I thought would happen for a while now.

Originally Posted by: ozone_aurora 


We've had "proper settled conditions" for 6 weeks down here... about time we had what used to be our typical "3 fine days then it rains" summer back.

Hopefully the high pressure will end up glued to the north, so a) we stay cooler down here due to winds off the sea and b) we might actually get some rain.
Leysdown, north Kent
Jiries
25 August 2024 11:55:01

We've had "proper settled conditions" for 6 weeks down here... about time we had what used to be our typical "3 fine days then it rains" summer back.

Hopefully the high pressure will end up glued to the north, so a) we stay cooler down here due to winds off the sea and b) we might actually get some rain.

Originally Posted by: Retron 


There was no proper settled weather at all including the SE as proper settled bring sunny cloudless days everywhere had not occurred once this summer.  September will bring out first settled weather this year.  
+1
Retron
25 August 2024 12:19:55

There was no proper settled weather at all including the SE as proper settled bring sunny cloudless days everywhere had not occurred once this summer.  September will bring out first settled weather this year.  

Originally Posted by: Jiries 


As I said, you shouldn't have left Kent! I've lost count of how many cloudless days there have been here - loads of them, and warm or very warm with it too.

Good riddance to it, frankly, and I hope the 31C that GFS has in a week's time here poofs in the same way the rain has, repeatedly, over the past 6 weeks.
Leysdown, north Kent
sunny coast
25 August 2024 15:52:35
Yes same here in east sussex . First decent rain yesterday for some time.  By no means a poor summer here . Have known infinitely worse over the decades  . Not as dry a West and North Kent tho we rarely are .
+1
Jiries
25 August 2024 16:05:47

Yes same here in east sussex . First decent rain yesterday for some time.  By no means a poor summer here . Have known infinitely worse over the decades  . Not as dry a West and North Kent tho we rarely are .

Originally Posted by: sunny coast 


Once we get our first proper setttled spell for 2024 in September will be first time for everyone including SE which had a very poor summer as well, see posts in NW forum full of evidence how poor everywere and more poorer further north.  Proper 1025-30mb pressure nationwide over UK had been absent since as far as last year.

Warm midweek then cool down to average before returning back up again.  Heat spikes do one and get lost please, no use to restricted heat cloudy dirty spikes type.
+1
Retron
25 August 2024 16:51:02
You can't accuse the GFS of being boring! The 06z run had 31C here in a week's time, with 18C dewpoints and lots of sun. The 12z update has 12C at noon (!), just 19C lower, lots of rain and of course a much lower dewpoint: 11C.

I'd put money on neither of them coming off. I'd reckon next Sunday will end up much as the latter half of the summer has here: dry, largely sunny, warmer than average.
Leysdown, north Kent
sunny coast
25 August 2024 16:51:17
As Retro  has said its not been a bad second d half of summer . We've not had a washout  remember those of 2012 and 2007 as recent examples let alone some of the shockers of the past.. .These days even the worst summers get a 30 somewhere along the line that was not the case in past decades . I would imagine that all the 60s summers were cooler than this one . 
+1
Retron
25 August 2024 16:55:58

.These days even the worst summers get a 30 somewhere along the line that was not the case in past decades . I would imagine that all the 60s summers were cooler than this one . 

Originally Posted by: sunny coast 


Yes, I mentioned the former point when Ally Pally Snowman was moaning earlier in the year, saying that we wouldn't get to 30 at all this summer. I said at the time you could add 5C onto all of his predictions and so it's been - 30C reached in all three months, and as usual getting warmer as summer's gone on.

As for the 60s summers, you're spot on: the hottest temperature in the 60s was 33.9, recorded in 1961 in London and Gillingham (presumably Kent) - some things never change in terms of the hot spots! We were also hotter than any day in the 80s as well. (Source  - Trevor Harley's site)

The hottest this year was 34.8, I can't see that being beaten in September but you never know with our modern climate!
Leysdown, north Kent
Ally Pally Snowman
25 August 2024 19:14:17

Yes, I mentioned the former point when Ally Pally Snowman was moaning earlier in the year, saying that we wouldn't get to 30 at all this summer. I said at the time you could add 5C onto all of his predictions and so it's been - 30C reached in all three months, and as usual getting warmer as summer's gone on.

As for the 60s summers, you're spot on: the hottest temperature in the 60s was 33.9, recorded in 1961 in London and Gillingham (presumably Kent) - some things never change in terms of the hot spots! We were also hotter than any day in the 80s as well. (Source  - Trevor Harley's site)

The hottest this year was 34.8, I can't see that being beaten in September but you never know with our modern climate!

Originally Posted by: Retron 


Well I'm glad I was wrong, it's also been a decent summer here in the very east of Hertfordshire.  After a terrible start since mid July it's been mainly dry and warm. I know its been a v poor summer though in the NW so hopefully this up coming spell is more nationwide. 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
26 August 2024 07:06:12
WX temp - as noted yesterday, the warm weather in week 1 lying generally across Europe except N Scotland and Scandinavia is being displaced in week 2 by cooler weather from the NE reaching as far as Germany. SW France still hot, as is S Russia; Britain on the edge, warm in the S, cool in the N.

GFS Op - consistent with yesterday, starting with LP near NW Scotland drawing up warm air from the SW. Then after a brief interlude Thu 29th as that LP moves across Scotland, pressure rises strongly from the SW, to settle 1030mb northern N Sea Sun 1st. This pulls back to N Scotland for the following week and dominates UK weather to Wed 11th though with shallow LP trying to establish near Cornwall, this LP with most effect Mon 9th and thence producing some strong NE-lies over SE England.

ECM - like GFS to Sun 1st but then HP pulls back to the Atlantic, still close enough to promise dry weather for Britain but cooler with winds going round to the W and then to N by Thu 5th

GEM - closer to ECM than GFS but with the same tendency for the HP to pull back to the W

GEFS - warm around Thu29th, a dip, then warm again Mon 2nd, less noticeable in Scotland. Mean temps then steadily to norm by Sat 8th, mean continues to cool, op stays warm but an increased number of quite cold ens members. Very little prospect of rain in the S, not much more in the N except for the next few days in the NW. 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+4
David M Porter
26 August 2024 08:39:27

Well I'm glad I was wrong, it's also been a decent summer here in the very east of Hertfordshire.  After a terrible start since mid July it's been mainly dry and warm. I know its been a v poor summer though in the NW so hopefully this up coming spell is more nationwide. 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Much as June and July were rather mixed here to say the least, neither month was as persistently awful as August has been in my locality. It seems that since the weather in your area improved somewhat after mid-July, ours took a turn for the worse.

There do now seem to be some reasonably consistent suggestions from the models of an end to the recent NW/SE split from around next weekend, although the precise details have still to be sorted out. It seems as though there will be a build of HP over the UK intially, with a mid-atlantic HP developing during next week according to ECM 00z. GFS seems to be keener to raise pressure over Scandinavia with a possible link-up the HP in the atlantic. I think those of us in NW areas would be very glad of such a set-up were it to develop as indicated after the August we have had.
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
+1
Jiries
26 August 2024 09:05:32

Much as June and July were rather mixed here to say the least, neither month was as persistently awful as August has been in my locality. It seems that since the weather in your area improved somewhat after mid-July, ours took a turn for the worse.

There do now seem to be some reasonably consistent suggestions from the models of an end to the recent NW/SE split from around next weekend, although the precise details have still to be sorted out. It seems as though there will be a build of HP over the UK intially, with a mid-atlantic HP developing during next week according to ECM 00z. GFS seems to be keener to raise pressure over Scandinavia with a possible link-up the HP in the atlantic. I think those of us in NW areas would be very glad of such a set-up were it to develop as indicated after the August we have had.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


Those linked up pressure pattern are the best and always deliver wall to wall sunshine for everyone once Sept arrives.  First time ever for this nasty summer had not deliver 30C, wall to wall sun, no thunder and prolonged settled periods. 0/10. Once  again infill clouds attack now as yesterday infill. I never seen infills in Sept onward always attack late spring to summer for some stupid reason.
+1
idj20
26 August 2024 12:48:41
Looking at the medium range outputs, there seems to be a slack col type set up stuck over the UK with high pressure to west and east. That's never a good thing in terms of hoping for long periods of clear skies and sunshine, once decayed weather fronts get tangled up in that col then it is going to take some shifting. 
Folkestone Harbour. 
sunny coast
26 August 2024 17:55:41

Well I'm glad I was wrong, it's also been a decent summer here in the very east of Hertfordshire.  After a terrible start since mid July it's been mainly dry and warm. I know its been a v poor summer though in the NW so hopefully this up coming spell is more nationwide. 

Ally Pally Snowman wrote:


Yes the difference between the SE and the rest of the UK also seems to be widening in recent years .  As you day a much better part 2 of meteorological summer . 
+1
picturesareme
26 August 2024 23:50:49

There was no proper settled weather at all including the SE as proper settled bring sunny cloudless days everywhere had not occurred once this summer.  September will bring out first settled weather this year.  

Originally Posted by: Jiries 


Yep, seconds to retron. We down here on the south coast have also had weeks of settled sunny weather. Dry and very warm for the most part. 
Jiries
27 August 2024 05:09:07

Yep, seconds to retron. We down here on the south coast have also had weeks of settled sunny weather. Dry and very warm for the most part. 

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


Still no full HP at all over UK so no proper settle ones this year and all NW posters living in south coasts including Londoners posted grim stats and report of lot of dull days and well below average sunshine hours.  What you got is unnoticed to all population who not seen weeks of genuine sunny weather wall to wall ones.  Doesn’t count sunny if there clouds pop up anytime.   Horrible cloudy heat spike to 26 tomorrow here to 29C over London.  I am more looking forward to genuine much warmer sunny full nationwide HP in September.  Highest genuine temps under near full sun as possible was only 25C might break next month. 
Retron
27 August 2024 05:32:31

Yep, seconds to retron. We down here on the south coast have also had weeks of settled sunny weather. Dry and very warm for the most part. 

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


No change in the forecast either, the MetO raw has seven days in a row of full sunshine... The switch that happened in mid-July was really remarkable, and we've only had one really wet day (Saturday) since then. That water's all long gone, of course, the ground is baked and there's no end in sight to the dry/warm setup.

I suspect the change, when it happens, will be sudden and dramatic.

UserPostedImage
https://ukwct.org.uk/weather/leys17.jpg 
Leysdown, north Kent
+1
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
27 August 2024 07:24:55
WX temps - week 1 continuing a zonal pattern, cool in N Europe (i.e N Scotland, Scandinavia) and hot in the south (i.e Mediterranean) with gradation in between. Then a bif change ine week 2 with the forecast quite unlike yesterday; instead of cooler air working in from Russia as far as Germany, E Europe (Russia, Finland, Poland) remains warm/not while there is a big push southwards of cool/cold air through Britain all the way down to southern France. In week 1 patchy rain for most of Europe except Russia which remains dry; in week 2, again a big difference from yesterday, with an area of heavy rain from the N Sea down through E France to Italy. Note: this somewhat depressing forecast seems to be based on GFS Op; other models and even many ens members within GFS do not support it.

GFS Op - current LP near Scotland with warm SW-lies moving on and giving way to broad area of HP lying SW-NE across Britain by Mon 2nd. This splits, allowing LP to dominate the N Sea with N-lies for Britain esp the E Coast; LP Holland 1003mb 1010mb by Wed 4th and staying around. Brief resurgence of HP Sun 8th but again breaks down with LP from N 1005mb covering all of Britain Wed 11th, cold for all.

ECM - the HP developing and splitting as above but the LP causing the split is further east ( S Norway/Sweden) so HP hangs on for Britain albeit with (much weaker N-lies)

GEM - minimises any split and keeps HP centred over Britain through to Thu 5th 1025mb

GEFS - Warm in immediate future, and again Mon 2nd, with dip to norm between and after, less pronounced in Scotland, with good ens agreement. Mean continues near norm but ens members vary with op in particular taking a very cold line. Some rain in some runs  from about Mon 2nd  onwards (and also in near future in far N)
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+4
soperman
27 August 2024 08:11:37
There has been no settled spell of weather in South Devon this summer except for 3 straight days of sun a couple of weeks back.  We have had plenty of rain and the gardens look fantastic which is the upside. Never cold though!
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
27 August 2024 09:54:35

Yep, seconds to retron. We down here on the south coast have also had weeks of settled sunny weather. Dry and very warm for the most part. 

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


Here in the East Midlands, we’ve had a decent summer with plenty of days in the mid 20’s and very little rain in recent weeks.  We’ve had a some very warm days and it’s recently been quite breezy.  All useable summer weather!  
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
cultman1
27 August 2024 10:23:14
For London the Met Office App shows unbroken  sunshine this week . Interestingly it's completely cloudy here in Fulham as at 11 am on Tuesday yet the app shows  sunshine. I have a hunch going forward whilst there will be an increase in temperatures there will be more cloud than sun under this existing high pressure
+1
Jiries
27 August 2024 11:14:33

For London the Met Office App shows unbroken  sunshine this week . Interestingly it's completely cloudy here in Fulham as at 11 am on Tuesday yet the app shows  sunshine. I have a hunch going forward whilst there will be an increase in temperatures there will be more cloud than sun under this existing high pressure

Originally Posted by: cultman1 


I am so pleased to know the forecast gone very wrong as I was so right from yesterday something gone wrong and once it gone wrong it stay wrong until it finish completely this wrongness.  No useable weather this summer and had been mostly stuck indoors, we want to go to the Sheldon country park next to the Birmingham airport runway but not able to do so due to cloudy cool weather, need clear skies to watch planes take off and landing.  At least models showing decent September start give us a chance to go outside in more sunny useable weather.
sunny coast
27 August 2024 13:58:43
We have had several weeks of usable weather not always clear unbroken sun but  by no means a poor second half of Summer 
+1
Retron
27 August 2024 17:19:28
Heads-up - the Met Office automated forecasts now come with a "maximum possible" value and a "minimum possible" value too. I guess this is from whatever ensembles they're using behind the scenes, and it's good to see. Hopefully they'll keep it!

https://ukwct.org.uk/weather/update.jpg 
UserPostedImage
Leysdown, north Kent

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