WX temps have backed down from the spectacular cooling shown yesterday, but not completely. Week 1 has a zonal distribution of temp, still quite hot for S France and across to Poland, cooler for N Scotland and Norway, Britain in between. Week 2, slight cooling for France, more definitely for Scotland and the whole of Scandinavia, SE England still just about warm. Rain in week 1 patchy for continental W Europe, drier for Britain, also especially Russia; in week 2 concentrated over France and S England, very dry for Scotland east to the Baltic and Russia.
GFS Op - pressure rising over the next few days to become centred over NE Britain Sat 31st 1025mb. For the following week pressure remains high over Scotland in the shape of a bridge between the Atlantic and Scandinavia, while shallow areas of LP affect S England (1015mb Holland Wed 4th, 1010mb Channel Mon 9th). From the 9th, the HP re-arranges into a broad ridge from Iceland to Scotland with any LP retreating further S into France.
ECM - something like GFS, but a deep trough between the Atlantic and Scandinavian centres Sun 1st, though too far west to affect all but extreme W Britain. LP then affects S Britain from the Channel only on Thu 5th, and the development of a ridge of HP to Iceland starts as early as Sat 7th.
GEM - the HP bridge referred to above doesn't establish straight away, with all of Britain under a trough lying N-S on Wed 4th. Later, once HP on the Atlantic and Scandinavia link up, LP moves further N to cover all of England Fri 6th
GEFS - temps back to norm Sat 31st then warm again Mon 2nd with good ens agreement. After Thu 5th the mean stays near norm to the end of run (chance of something warmer in the far N Mon 9th), but very little agreement between ens members (on the 7th, a 20C spread between hottest and coldest in the S). Rain most likely for a week beginning Mon 2nd but only a few ens members show large amounts and those mostly in the S.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell
Chichester 12m asl