Uncertainty in forecasts this morning reflected by the difference, at least for S England, between the MetO headline forecast for Sunday and Monday (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/gcp3nqsgd#?date=2024-08-31) which shows dry and sunny periods, and their rainfall prediction (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/maps-and-charts/uk-weather-map) which has periods of rain moving north across the region, sometimes heavy. From the regular sources:
WX maps: a more consistently zonal distribution of temperature than recently - cool for Scotland and Scandinavia, warm/hot for the Mediterranean, gradient between - but generally cooler for Europe N of the Alps in week 2. Rain outlook has also altered, now showing week 1 wet in E Spain, damp for W Europe, dry in the east; week 2 extends the area of heavier rain to cover most of W Europe including Britain.
GFS Op - HP currently near the N Sea moving east to N Russia 1030mb by Tue 3rd, replaced by shallow trough over Britain extending well south into France. New HP from the Atlantic moves in to form broad ridge W-E across Scotland 1030mb Fri 6th but with continental LP never far from the S Coast, persisting to Tue 10th. HP then collapses and LP over France links to LP near Iceland; a shallow trough at first but deepening by stages to 990mb Irish Sea Mon 16th with cold pool covering Britain. Ex-hurricanes stirring up the Atlantic in a week's time.
ECM - similar to GFS for a change but the HP by Tue 10th has removed to Iceland rather than collapsing, and a broad ridge to Denmark still dominating most of Britain.
GEM - like a dramatically accelerated version of GFS with HP not lasting after Fri 6th, the link-up of LP between France and Iceland in place by Sun 8th and the cold pool with LP centre in the Irish Sea by Mon 9th.
GEFS - warm or very warm around Tue 2nd and Mon 8th, possibly Sun 14th, with dips back to norm between. Small amounts of rain in many ens members at most times in the S, reducing to occasional but heavier spikes in only a few runs in the N specially now and near Sun 7th and 14th.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell
Chichester 12m asl