theweatheroutlook

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DEW
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29 August 2024 07:41:33
WX charts: week 1 temps show a S-ward dip in the zonal isotherms around Britain i.e. cooler weather as far south as the Midlands/Wales while further east, the heat spreads north up to the S Baltic. Week2 shows a more general cooling in NW Europe, though curiously this skips over Britain, England and S Scotland still comfortably warm while parts of Germany and Switzerland are cool. Week 1 generally wet for Europe in week 1, Britain one of the drier parts (Russia very dry). In week 2 most of W Europe quite wet, Britain apart from far N and far S dry.

GFS Op - HP moving E-wards across Britain 1025 mb Sat 31st, replaced by a slow moving trough lying down the N Sea until Thu 5th. Then pressure rises from the SW soon forming an arc from SW of Ireland to N Scotland to Baltic to S Russia while a large area of slack LP affects England and the near continent through to Tue 10th. HP then retreats SW-wards but still fairly high over Britain (and an ex-hurricane waiting in the Atlantic).

ECM - the 'slow moving trough' sets up over the Irish Sea 1000mb Tue 3rd and affects Britain more generally. While the 'arc' of HP then sets up, it falls apart by Sun 8th and LP is back to W Scotland 1000mb Sun 8th with trough extending S-wards.

GEM - the initial HP moves across to Norway but is soon followed by another HP cell from the Atlantic so any trough is restricted to a small area 1015mb S England Mon 2nd. The HP then intensifies from the Atlantic end and covers Britain Thu 5th with no eastward extension, gradually moving  N to Scotland 1030mb Sat 7th but ridging S-wards. Two ex-hurricanes in the W Atlantic at this point.

GEFS - warm around Mon 2nd (v warm in SE, not so much in N) with good agreement but mean soon dropping back to norm and staying there but with some wide variations; hint of something warmer around Sat 7th esp in N. More rain than shown yesterday, small amounts in most runs from Mon 2nd but some very large spikes in a few runs later that week esp in S.

A wide range of outputs today!
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+4
HighPressureGloom
29 August 2024 07:42:07

The GFS 12z op is pretty terrible after Saturday.  An evil little depression interacting with the jet which bull dozes into the high pressure, then sits slack over the UK until gone midweek .

Originally Posted by: HighPressureGloom 


The ECMWF has picked up this scenario and ran with it on the 12z and morning run. Hopefully the GEM is closer to the mark. 
The Beast from the East
29 August 2024 11:55:11
Oh dear, looks like summer has gone pete tong. 
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
cultman1
29 August 2024 13:49:36
Brian's' summary forecast today  implies a possible return to dry and warmer weather early next week ? 
Ally Pally Snowman
29 August 2024 17:45:36
Better GFS 12 so far,  the cut off low causing chaos with the models. They don't have a clue where it will end up.
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
+1
Ally Pally Snowman
29 August 2024 18:54:34
Better ECM 12z as well but I'm not convinced any model has a clue about next week. 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
David M Porter
29 August 2024 18:57:18

Ecm eventually brings the heat at day 9. But it's not trustworthy at that range . It's been terrible this summer in the 168/240 range

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


That's what I've been thinking too. Anytime that a nationwide settled spell with HP on top of or very close to the British Isles has been suggested by ECM and other models in the 7-10 day range, it seems to have always been watered down in extent and duration or removed completely.

I think Ally is right about the cut-off low causing real difficulties for the models at the moment. Until the behaviour of this is sorted out one way or another, what happens next week is very much open to question.
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
+1
DEW
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30 August 2024 07:16:38
WX temp charts keep shifting. Today it's the turn of NE Europe (Germany, Poland) to see a dramatic cooling in week 2 after the current warmth while SW Europe (France, Spain) stays warm. Britain is between - week 1, generally a little above average, warmer in the SE; week 2, somewhat cooler with any warmth just fringing the S Coast. Rai in ek 1 quite widespread from Norway down to Spain though mostly not heavy; week 2, two areas of heavy rain developing, one for Finland and Norway, the other for Alps and Pyrenees, Britain and N Europe very dry.

GFS Op - HP 1025mb over N Sea tomorrow moving quite quickly E-wards followed by a shallow trough (less marked than shown yesterday) on Tue 3rd followed in turn by more HP from the SW. 1030mb N Ireland Fri 6th. This HP stays around, slowly shifting to Scotland 1030mb Sat 14th, just about fending off LP running through Norway earlier and encroaching from the SW later. Yesterday's forecast of a hurricane on the Atlantic has been cancelled.

ECM - only matches GFS to Tue 3rd, when the 'shallow' trough is deeper and cooler (1000mb N Ireland) and moves S to Biscay by Fri 6th with a broad ridge of HP from Scotland to Norway. This LP then returns N-wards, running up the W Coast, while HP (not LP!) is centred in the Baltic 1030mb Mon 9th with warm S-ly flow for Britain perhaps entraining a thundery low.

GEM - closer to GFS though the HP after Fri 6th retreats to NW  and by Sun 8th continental LP has moved up to 1010mb E Anglia

GEFS - warm or very warm for Mon 2nd, then after a slight dip quite warm again around Sat 7th in most runs. After this agreement between ens members breaks down but mean temp is near norm. Small amounts of rain at any time but some runs throwing up a few big peaks in the N at first and in the SW later.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+4
Ally Pally Snowman
30 August 2024 07:18:49
Better 0z again . Most models making less of the cut off low. Most have it drifting sw and dragging up some heat. Especially the ECM. Still don't think any model has next week sorted though.
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
briggsy6
30 August 2024 10:50:46
Well reading the headlines on the Huff Post is a mugs game. Either we're heading for a heatwave or another storm or possibly a cold spell with temps falling to 1c. About as clear as mud as usual on there.
Location: Uxbridge
DEW
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31 August 2024 07:29:37
Uncertainty in forecasts this morning reflected by the difference, at least for S England, between the MetO headline forecast for Sunday and Monday (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/gcp3nqsgd#?date=2024-08-31) which shows dry and sunny periods, and their rainfall prediction (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/maps-and-charts/uk-weather-map)  which has periods of rain moving north across the region, sometimes heavy. From the regular sources:

WX maps: a more consistently zonal distribution of temperature than recently - cool for Scotland and Scandinavia, warm/hot for the Mediterranean, gradient between - but generally cooler for Europe N of the Alps in week 2. Rain outlook has also altered, now showing week 1 wet in E Spain, damp for W Europe, dry in the east; week 2 extends the area of heavier rain to cover most of W Europe including Britain.

GFS Op - HP currently near the N Sea moving east to N Russia 1030mb by Tue 3rd, replaced by shallow trough over Britain extending well south into France. New HP from the Atlantic moves in to form broad ridge W-E across Scotland 1030mb Fri 6th but with continental LP never far from the S Coast, persisting to Tue 10th. HP then collapses and LP over France links to LP near Iceland; a shallow trough at first but deepening by stages to 990mb Irish Sea Mon 16th with cold pool covering Britain. Ex-hurricanes stirring up the Atlantic in a week's time.

ECM - similar to GFS for a change but the HP by Tue 10th has removed to Iceland rather than collapsing, and a broad ridge to Denmark still dominating most of Britain.

GEM - like a dramatically accelerated version of GFS with HP not lasting after Fri 6th, the link-up of LP between France and Iceland in place by Sun 8th and the cold pool with LP centre in the Irish Sea by Mon 9th.

GEFS - warm or very warm around Tue 2nd and Mon 8th, possibly Sun 14th, with dips back to norm between. Small amounts of rain in many ens members at most times in the S, reducing to occasional but heavier spikes in only a few runs in the N specially now and near Sun 7th and 14th.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+6
DEW
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01 September 2024 07:41:02
WX temps for week 1 not showing much change, generally warm across Europe, even hot in the east, cooler on Atlantic coasts. Then in week 2 Autumn arrives in earnest with temperatures dropping typically 5 or 6C in most places north of the Alps, just about still warm in W France and S England. Rain in week 1 concentrated in France and SW Britain, E Europe dry; in week  rain generally through France and C Europe, Scotland and Iceland dry.

GFS Op - broad trough of LP drifting in from the W so by Tue 3rd Britain under unfocused LP between Atlantic and Scandinavian HP. This trough gathers itself and moves to France, by Friday 6th 1005mb Biscay while a ridge of HP sets up across Scotland extending to Scandinavia. This ridge declines and moves N-wards while the Biscayan LP re-invents itself and becomes a trough lying W-E from W Ireland to Denmark for w/b Mon 9th, typically 1005mb for a wide area . At the end of the week HP returns to Scotland from the north.

ECM - the trough on Tue 3rd is weaker and further east, and soon replaced by a large area of HP from the Atlantic which persists over all of Britain for that week. Then on Mon 9th it retreats to the Atlantic and LP from Norwegian Sea generates strong N-lies for all of Britain from Tue 10th.

GEM - like GFS at first but the trough from Mon 9th does not extend E-wards, rather linking with LP near Greenland 

GEFS - temp profile not too different from yesterday, warm now, a dip to norm and fairly warm again around Sat 7th, more marked in N, and then with fair agreement back to norm through to Tue 17th though outliers do occur. But there's a lot more rain, in some runs very heavy, especially in S Wed 5th - Fri 13th and in N now and Mon 9th - Fri 13th, less in far N
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+5
DEW
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01 September 2024 19:53:45
Monstrous amount of rain running east to west along southern coastal counties on Thursday, say MetO

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/maps-and-charts/rainfall-radar-forecast-map 

EDIT 12 hours later, it's been down graded and moved to Friday!
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+1
DEW
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02 September 2024 07:22:42
WX temp charts repeat yesterday's forecast: week 1 not showing much change, generally warm across Europe, even hot in the east, cooler on Atlantic coasts. Then in week 2 Autumn arrives in earnest with temperatures dropping typically 5 or 6C in most places north of the Alps, just about still warm in W France and S England. Rain pattern quite different though: week 1, the most persistent rain in an area from Scandinavia down to Italy with Britain and France on the fringe; week 2 i's back on the N Atlantic with  patch in the Alps, N Europe including England very dry.

GFS Op - HP tends to persist over the Atlantic SW of Britain and in Scandinavia, Britain in a trough between the two. This trough deepest Sun 8th when 995m N Sea off Yorkshire. Then after a brief rise in pressure Tue 10th, the trough comes back and not until Fri 16th is there HP 1030mb properly covering Britain. It doesn't last - the following week da capo, HP tends to persist over the Atlantic SW of Britain and in Scandinavia, Britain in a trough between the two

ECM - like GFS at first though the deepest part is 1000mb Belgium also Tue 10th. The rise of HP following lasts longer as a deep depression develops near the Azores instead of the GFS which keeps HP there.

GEM - differs from above in keeping HP across Scotland with the remains of the current trough settling along the Channel by Thu 5th. But by Sun 8th this revives to cover Britain between the two blocks of HP. Although this soon moves off SE-wards, a new LP has reached Ireland 1005mb Wed 11th

GEFS - cooling, then warmer again around Sat 7th, back to norm for the rest of the period perhaps a bit cooler around Thu 12th in England, much cooler in Scotland, Rain in most ens members around Sat 7th and again Sat 14th, a few with big totals for England; Scotland gets rain earlier and then stays dry-ish until 14th. 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+5
Ally Pally Snowman
02 September 2024 19:15:45
Models continue to be batshiit crazy atm. No consistency beyond 96h. Everything possible  from very humid south easterlies to cold northerlies. 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Jiries
03 September 2024 04:40:53

Models continue to be batshiit crazy atm. No consistency beyond 96h. Everything possible  from very humid south easterlies to cold northerlies. 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


SE flow normally very dry air and sunnier flow of from the continent?  Will be very sunny and warm from Friday under very rare SE flow. 
doctormog
03 September 2024 06:11:07

SE flow normally very dry air and sunnier flow of from the continent?  Will be very sunny and warm from Friday under very rare SE flow. 

Originally Posted by: Jiries 



Haar then?

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK00_90_24.png 
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Jiries
03 September 2024 06:26:42

Haar then?

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK00_90_24.png 

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Not from the SE flow never bring clouds most from NE flow in Spring to early summer.  Not sure what your problem with it? 
johncs2016
03 September 2024 06:33:04

Haar then?

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK00_90_24.png 

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


We didn't get a lot of easterlies during the summer but we can still get that east coast haar when they do occur as was the case yesterday here in Edinburgh.

Looking ahead at the latest model output, it is also looking as though we may well get a lot more of that going ahead with high pressure looking likely to set itself up to our north which would then feed in an easterly wind across the UK.

Of course, we're more likely to get haar if those easterlies are originating from the Mediterranean rather than Arctic because that is a warmer air mass overall which would be more likely have more of its moisture condensing out into mist and fog as it crosses those cooler waters in the North Sea.

The latest model output suggests that these easterlies do indeed, look likely to be originating from the Mediterranean and that is why that risk of haar exists.
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
+2
doctormog
03 September 2024 06:38:08

Not from the SE flow never bring clouds most from NE flow in Spring to early summer.  Not sure what your problem with it? 

Originally Posted by: Jiries 


No, that is totally factually incorrect. A long SEly track over the North Sea will frequently bring haar to many coastal eastern regions in the northern half of the UK. That’s just a well known meteorological phenomenon. In fact, I have just checked and it is indeed mentioned in the Met Office written forecasts.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
+2
Jiries
03 September 2024 06:55:19

No, that is totally factually incorrect. A long SEly track over the North Sea will frequently bring haar to many coastal eastern regions in the northern half of the UK. That’s just a well known meteorological phenomenon. In fact, I have just checked and it is indeed mentioned in the Met Office written forecasts.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Yes Richard hate those with passion but se flow have no impact over here to London as come over short sea crossings.  I see 25 sunny on Friday then back slowly to average with possible early sunny cold northerly blast. Tom more fresher with sharp drop in temps with lot of sunshine after this lately miserable dull faux warm weather.
doctormog
03 September 2024 06:59:03

Yes Richard hate those with passion but se flow have no impact over here to London as come over short sea crossings.  I see 25 sunny on Friday then back slowly to average with possible early sunny cold northerly blast. Tom more fresher with sharp drop in temps with lot of sunshine after this lately miserable dull faux warm weather.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 


Yes, the south doesn’t suffer from a SEly flow in the same way with much more of a continental influence. It should be warmer and more humid in the south but perhaps a bit unsettled at times. NW Scotland might be very pleasant too.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Retron
03 September 2024 07:03:22

Yes, the south doesn’t suffer from a SEly flow in the same way with much more of a continental influence. It should be warmer and more humid in the south but perhaps a bit unsettled at times. NW Scotland might be very pleasant too.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Haar is rare down here (speaking as someone who lives close to the coast, and is exposed to the north, NE and east).

The only time you tend to get it here is in late spring/early summer, when the first really humid airmasses appear - IF the air gets pulled in from the east, or NE, AND the sea is cold enough, you get mist/fog/low cloud/murk. Later in the season you just get what we've had recently, a slight mistiness / haziness.
Leysdown, north Kent
DEW
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03 September 2024 07:35:46
WX charts show a contrast in week 1 between hot in Poland and the Baltic and on either side, simply average for W Europe, even cool near N Spain, and rather cold for further E in Russia. All change in week 2, with colder air  sweeping down across Finland as far as Germany, while something rather warm moves up to Biscay. Little change for Britain, though.

GFS Op - the current situation in which Britain lies in a trough between large areas of HP to W & E resolves into a situation with LP in the Channel and a ridge of HP lying W-E across Scotland. The LP in the Channel localise and deepens briefly 1000mb Isle of Wight Sun 8th (I don't see the blowtorch SE-lies hoped for above - these SE-lies have a long track over the N Sea so haar for the E coast but a very good few hot and sunny days for W Scotland). Over the following week HP noses in from the W and SW becoming widely established by Fri 13th before collapsing and allowing LP from the Atlantic to approach NW Scotland 985mb Wed 18th with strong W/SW-lies for all.

ECM - somewhat like GFS but the LP does not localise in the Channel but is more widely over S England Sun 8th before moving to Germany and bringing in E/NE-lies to Fri 13th while the HP makes a much more tentative approach to N Scotland.

GEM - like ECM but adds in LP in Norwegian Sea from Wed 11th which turns winds into N/NE

GEFS - in the S, quite a lot of rain Thu 5th - Tue 10th but also warmer, then less wet but nearer normal temps, another spell of wet and a little warmer around Mon 16th. Temp variation less marked in W but greater in Scotland. Rain much less in  the N esp NE, and mostly later on
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+2
johncs2016
03 September 2024 07:56:23

Yes Richard hate those with passion but se flow have no impact over here to London as come over short sea crossings.  I see 25 sunny on Friday then back slowly to average with possible early sunny cold northerly blast. Tom more fresher with sharp drop in temps with lot of sunshine after this lately miserable dull faux warm weather.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 


I don't think that Richard would hardly ever be happy with the weather in his neck of the woods regardless of what that was like.

Speaking of Richard though, I have noticed that it's been quite a long time since he last posted anything on this forum so I hope he's OK, especially given some of the language that he has used in a large number of his posts with words such as "suicide inducing," and so on.

I know that there was certain times recently when he was logged on but not actually posting anything as his name was often appearing on the list of logged in users who were currently viewing a particular thread, but it has now been quite a while since even that was the case.
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
+2

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