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LeedsLad123
03 September 2024 23:15:24

Yes, the south doesn’t suffer from a SEly flow in the same way with much more of a continental influence. It should be warmer and more humid in the south but perhaps a bit unsettled at times. NW Scotland might be very pleasant too.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


A SE flow is good for here as it mostly travels over hot land (i.e East Anglia/Lincolnshire). A straight easterly is usually pretty poor though. 

I can’t imagine any kind of easterly being particularly good for Aberdeen as it will always have to travel over the sea.
Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
DEW
  • DEW
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04 September 2024 06:45:25
WX temp charts vary from day to day. This morning week 1 is warm well up into the Baltic, even hot in Poland, while cooler through Britain into France. This pattern is amplified in week 2 with quite cool weather reaching SE to Austria and the Adriatic. Some warmth not too far from Cornwall; ominously a large freezing patch over Iceland. Rain focused on S England, France and Italy in week 1, very dry for Spain and E Baltic; in week 2 this rain area expands to cover most of W Europe.

GFS Op - current trough covering the N Sea shifting S-wards and becoming focused in the Channel 1005mb Mon 9th; ridge of HP connecting Atlantic and Baltic HPs but not as well developed as previously shown. By Thu 12th the Channel LP has broadened out and moved to Sweden followed by several days of  cold N-lies for Britain and going on to affect the continent. After a muddled few days with pressure generally low over NW Europe, HP pushes in from the SW Wed 18th for England with shallow LPs running over/past Scotland.

ECM - the ridge of HP is much stronger, appears earlier (Fri 6th) but declines more quickly than GFS; the channel low is less deep. Then the LP Thu 12th is deeper (995mb) and closer (Orkney) with N-lies for Britain generally stronger.

GEM - similar to GFS but both the HP Mon 12th and LP Thu 12th are more strongly developed

GEFS - temps mostly a few degrees above norm to Wed 11th then distinctly cold (as much as 8C below norm) for a week before recovering. Rain 5th-9th (Thu - Mon)  and again from Fri 13th in the S, Scotland misses most of the former period and has less rain in the latter esp in NE. 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+3
GezM
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04 September 2024 09:59:25
The next few days are looking very wet across southern England. 3 days of weather warnings from tomorrow have now been issued 
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
Retron
04 September 2024 10:56:24

The next few days are looking very wet across southern England. 3 days of weather warnings from tomorrow have now been issued 

Originally Posted by: GezM 


Across bits of southern England, anyway. There are two "light rain" symbols here on the MetO automated over the next three days, which is an improvement over yesterday's forecast (none), but... let's just say I'll be pleasantly surprised if we get a soaking.

I've never known so much phantom rain as we've seen this summer with the GFS down here. In the GFS' world it would be a lovely verdant wonderland rather than the parched dustbowl it's become!

(GFS has 12mm of rain here tomorrow, the MetO raw has two hours of light rain, so maybe 3mm?)
Leysdown, north Kent
Jiries
04 September 2024 10:59:06

The next few days are looking very wet across southern England. 3 days of weather warnings from tomorrow have now been issued 

Originally Posted by: GezM 


I do hope it push further south to keep Epsom dry on Saturday and visit my old work friend in Windsor as it was looking good for those areas before due to inaccurate models once again. 
Mid 20s over Midlands over the Friday to the weekend though. Uppers as high as 15c here but with boy cried wolf many times so hard to get excited this time.
GezM
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04 September 2024 11:06:51

Across bits of southern England, anyway. There are two "light rain" symbols here on the MetO automated over the next three days, which is an improvement over yesterday's forecast (none), but... let's just say I'll be pleasantly surprised if we get a soaking.

I've never known so much phantom rain as we've seen this summer with the GFS down here. In the GFS' world it would be a lovely verdant wonderland rather than the parched dustbowl it's become!

(GFS has 12mm of rain here tomorrow, the MetO raw has two hours of light rain, so maybe 3mm?)

Originally Posted by: Retron 


Agreed. If you run the Met Office rain forecast, most of the rain falls south and west of London , to the south coast and all the way down to Cornwall. A bit like channel sliders in the winter, I wouldn't be surprised to see this adjusted further south with time. 
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
Jiries
04 September 2024 11:31:04

Agreed. If you run the Met Office rain forecast, most of the rain falls south and west of London , to the south coast and all the way down to Cornwall. A bit like channel sliders in the winter, I wouldn't be surprised to see this adjusted further south with time. 

Originally Posted by: GezM 


Let hope so as there so little time left to adjust south as tom is Thursday but likely overcast in Epsom to Windsor.
DEW
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04 September 2024 14:18:53

Agreed. If you run the Met Office rain forecast, most of the rain falls south and west of London , to the south coast and all the way down to Cornwall. A bit like channel sliders in the winter, I wouldn't be surprised to see this adjusted further south with time. 

Originally Posted by: GezM 


I wouldn't be surprised to see it adjusted, full stop! The predictions for the heaviest rainfall alter day by day, if not hour by hour.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Chunky Pea
04 September 2024 15:07:36
Was listening to Eric Snodgrass's latest podcast there and it seems there is a pretty major pattern shift across the whole of the northern hemisphere occurring at the moment. Heavy rains predicted for western Sahara; unusually cool weather for eastern north America and usually warm in northern Europe. 
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
+2
scillydave
04 September 2024 19:30:51
Tomorrow and Friday are looking very wet as things stand for the South West. I wouldn't be surprised to see an Amber warning issued overnight/ tomorrow morning if the detail firms up.
Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.
White Meadows
04 September 2024 22:26:10
Met office mid and long range flipped from 1st half of September to be warm, pleasant and sunny with light winds to consistent downpours for the foreseeable. 
Never ceases to amaze how the fence sitting turns occasional climb down to make solid narratives, only for the reality doing the opposite. 
Talk and hoped of an Indian summer now fade to having to build an ark. 

Jiries
05 September 2024 05:29:18

Met office mid and long range flipped from 1st half of September to be warm, pleasant and sunny with light winds to consistent downpours for the foreseeable. 
Never ceases to amaze how the fence sitting turns occasional climb down to make solid narratives, only for the reality doing the opposite. 
Talk and hoped of an Indian summer now fade to having to build an ark. 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 


Show how severe inaccuracies on all forecasts to models are today than in the past which was far more accurate and better before.  
+1
DEW
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05 September 2024 07:12:26
WX temps- not as dramatic a cool down as shown yesterday, but the next two weeks look very much alike, warm in E Europe and S Baltic, cool pushing south over Britain into W Europe. The focus of the latter moves from France in week 1 to Norway and Germany in week 2. Cold weather continues to accumulate over E Russia. Rain in week 1 in a wide area from Scotland down to the Adriatic, becoming even more widespread over Europe in week 2.

GFS Op - LP hanging around the Channel for most of the next week with pressure fairly high for Scotland. Mon 9th thisstarts to move NE-wards and links up with LP from Iceland - by Wed 11th 980mb off N Scotland with strong N-lies for Britain, and staying near Scotland to Sun 15th with HP a great distance away to W & E. New LP from Atlantic crosses Scotland (off E coast 980mb Tue 17th on its way NE-wards) and finally an area of HP 1020mb covering Britain Sat 21st.

ECM - similar to GFS but by Sun 15th the LP degenerates into a shallow trough covering all of Britain.

GEM - like GFS to Thu 12th then a rise of pressure affecting mostly the SE but with new LP threatening W Scotland

GEFS - from reasonably mild, even warm in the N,  to start with, a week of distinctly cold weather from Wed 11th before temps slowly recover to norm. In the S, frequent and often heavy rain for the next two weeks, away from the far S, mainly in two spells near 8th and 15th, in the N less heavy and not starting until Mon 9th.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+4
The Beast from the East
05 September 2024 09:28:22
Looks like the Test match will be washed out! Oh dear, looking like I'll have to see if the boiler still works, much earlier than last year when I managed to avoid turning on the heating until October
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Saint Snow
05 September 2024 09:41:06
Bizarre weather distribution on Friday.

Being really busy lately, I've not been taking much notice of the models - and instead looking at the Met Office site for forecasts, focusing on Friday (I'm at a works do at the racing) and the weekend.

For a few days, it's been showing warm/hot, dry and sunny Friday, temps dropping a touch on Saturday, then more cloudy with a chance of drizzle through Sunday.

I'd assumed south of us would be getting even better weather and was actually surprised to see Beast's comment above so looked wider.

Blimey!




Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Retron
05 September 2024 09:46:41

Bizarre weather distribution on Friday.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


The models have been struggling with that rain here - rain overnight (when they showed dry), dry now (when it showed rain), and so on. They got the mugginess right, mind you.

It looks like there will be quite a noticeable change for many of us next week... autumn arrives in style, with temperatures by day a good 6 or 7C down on current values down here, and dewpoints falling to the "fresh" range. 16C with a 5C dewpoint and a breeze next Wednesday will feel positively Baltic in comparison to what we've had for the past 7 or 8 weeks!

Manchester looks like seeing even more of a swing... 25C tomorrow (per GFS) down to a high of just 10C in a week's time.
Leysdown, north Kent
+2
Jiries
05 September 2024 09:56:37

The models have been struggling with that rain here - rain overnight (when they showed dry), dry now (when it showed rain), and so on. They got the mugginess right, mind you.

It looks like there will be quite a noticeable change for many of us next week... autumn arrives in style, with temperatures by day a good 6 or 7C down on current values down here, and dewpoints falling to the "fresh" range. 16C with a 5C dewpoint and a breeze next Wednesday will feel positively Baltic in comparison to what we've had for the past 7 or 8 weeks!

Manchester looks like seeing even more of a swing... 25C tomorrow (per GFS) down to a high of just 10C in a week's time.

Retron wrote:


From overcast 25C tomorrow as I don't expect sun as like today cold and overcast to decent sunny 13C next week. I am actually looking fowrard to see this mainly to see more sun than this lately as last seen sun that last more than 5 mins was last Friday so almost a week of overcast cold and muggy weather.
Jiries
05 September 2024 10:03:27

Looks like the Test match will be washed out! Oh dear, looking like I'll have to see if the boiler still works, much earlier than last year when I managed to avoid turning on the heating until October

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Not for me the conservatory will keep us warm despite not reaching 30C plus since last Friday due to overcast cold and muggy weather outside, next week I would see the return to low 30's as I had those when outside was 12C and sunny after over night frosts last April . Northerly sunny days are much welcome and can't wait for it.  Temps recovering to normal as per ensembles but thankfully no cloudy heat spikes again.
GezM
  • GezM
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05 September 2024 12:43:00

Looks like the Test match will be washed out! Oh dear, looking like I'll have to see if the boiler still works, much earlier than last year when I managed to avoid turning on the heating until October

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Not sure about a wash out at the Oval. If it had started today I don't think we'd be seeing much play but the next few days don't look too bad. Mind you, I see that the forecast varies quite widely depending on which app/website you use!  It is looking showery but fairly warm overall. 
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
Jiries
05 September 2024 18:32:39
UKMO offering direct northerly so please let this come off to allow us to see the sun again to allow feel warmer than today temperatures, no sun and gale force winds. 
ozone_aurora
05 September 2024 19:00:02

The models have been struggling with that rain here - rain overnight (when they showed dry), dry now (when it showed rain), and so on. They got the mugginess right, mind you.

It looks like there will be quite a noticeable change for many of us next week... autumn arrives in style, with temperatures by day a good 6 or 7C down on current values down here, and dewpoints falling to the "fresh" range. 16C with a 5C dewpoint and a breeze next Wednesday will feel positively Baltic in comparison to what we've had for the past 7 or 8 weeks!

Manchester looks like seeing even more of a swing... 25C tomorrow (per GFS) down to a high of just 10C in a week's time.

Originally Posted by: Retron 


Reminds me a bit of September 1919, a truly bizarre month. There was a heatwave with max temperature of 32.2 C in Raunds on 11th but then dropping to approx 13.9 C in not too distant Nottingham area on 12th.

On 19th, Aberdeen recorded just 7.8 C!
+2
Gandalf The White
05 September 2024 20:00:19
Not sure where to post this but I’ve just watched on BBC News24 a fascinating discussion about the use of AI in weather forecasting. There was a senior guy from the MetOffice and the head of the ECMWF.  Apparently it’s on, or will be, YouTube.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


+1
DEW
  • DEW
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06 September 2024 07:25:17
WX temps continue the theme, for week 1, of cool weather pushing south over Britain and down as far as S France while it remains relatively warm in E Europe and N-wards into Finland. In week 2, interestingly, the cold incursion wraps itself up into a cold/cool pool across S Europe from S France to the Balkans, while there is something warmer from England to the S Baltic. Scotland stays cool and Scandinavia  cooler. Rain in week 1 for most of Continental Europe, for Britain heaviest in the S; in week 2 reverts to the Atlantic but also with a large area over SE Europe, Britain except NW Scotland rather dry at this time.

GFS Op - starts with LP over S England and broad ridge of HP from Atlantic to Russia across Scotland, By Sun 8th the centre of this ridge collapses and LP from Iceland links to the LP in S England bringing down N/NW-lies over Britain into W Europe. By Fri 13th this complex has  moved N-wards, and HP from the SW links up with that from Russia to form a large area of HP over Norway 1035mb Mon 16th This HP persists to dominate Britain for that week before a shallow trough slips in from the NW on the following weekend.

ECM - similar to GFS though LP close to Scotland Fri 13th implies a day of gales before the HP establishes

GEM - differs sharply from GFS after Fri 13th with new LP from Atlantic Sat 14th 990 mb NI and another approaching on Mon 16th; little sign of significant HP nearer than Russia

GEFS - rather cool Wed 11th - Sun 15th, otherwise mean temps near norm though op & control warmer for a time after 15th. Rain in the S & SW more intermittent than shown yesterday but still big totals in some ens members; more continuous in the N & NE after Mon 9th but less extreme variation. 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+4
DEW
  • DEW
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07 September 2024 07:15:31
WX temps - week 1 colder than norm from Iceland down through Britain and France to the Alps (even absolutely cold for Norway and Switzerland), warmer on either side. In week 2 this cold plunge disperses over the Balkans while other areas recover to norm, albeit Norwegian coast and Iceland still cold. Rain in week 1 for most of W Europe except Spain; in week 2 the rain area splits, part to the Black Sea and part to the N Atlantic, most of Europe dry though Britain esp SW still on the damp side.

GFS - current LP over S England slowly drifting NE to Norway where by Tue 10th it links with LP E of Iceland generating N-lies for Britain, slowly going round to the NW as the LP moves to Sweden Sun 15th and HP moves up from the SW.  This slowly grows (though Atlantic LPs brush NW Scotland at first) to become a broad area of HP covering Britain and extending E-wards, only by Mon 23rd beginning to slide SE-wards.

ECM - similar to GFS though the HP by Tue 17th is actually in separate areas, over Britain and over E Europe with a shallow trough lingering over Sweden

GEM - the joined-up LP shown in GFS for the 10th is localised over NE Scotland  before moving out into the Norwegian Sea and filling - but then reviving as above over Sweden.

GEFS - temp drops well below norm Tue 10th - Sun 15th in all runs, recovering and mean staying near norm though op run is warmer. Rain heavy in far S tomorrow but after that much drier than shown yesterday. Other than this everywhere have a scattering of predictions for small amounts of rain at any time.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+5
Jiries
07 September 2024 19:02:10
Will this much welcome northerly finally bring a proper HP without clouds and fronts being created this time?   Once again I hope this strong northerly is pattern change for the first time in 2024 to something more reliable proper longer settled spells that can last more than 24 hours.

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