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ozone_aurora
07 September 2024 20:30:54

Will this much welcome northerly finally bring a proper HP without clouds and fronts being created this time?   Once again I hope this strong northerly is pattern change for the first time in 2024 to something more reliable proper longer settled spells that can last more than 24 hours.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 


I sincerely hope so! Haven't done Astrophotography for a while!
Retron
08 September 2024 04:39:06

Reminds me a bit of September 1919, a truly bizarre month. There was a heatwave with max temperature of 32.2 C in Raunds on 11th but then dropping to approx 13.9 C in not too distant Nottingham area on 12th.

On 19th, Aberdeen recorded just 7.8 C!

Originally Posted by: ozone_aurora 


Rings a bell, I remember reading somewhere years ago that the last time there was sleet in September down here was in September 1919. That must have been some cold plunge!

The models have really been struggling with the rainfall amounts recently, and it's no surprise to see the various deluges from models as diverse as ICON-D2, Arome, GFS and UKV have all come to naught locally, even as other areas not far away saw much more. I do wonder if they'll ever be able to predict convective rainfall with any accuracy, it seems to be a tough ask due to the apparent randomness.
Leysdown, north Kent
Jiries
08 September 2024 07:02:14
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=48656&model=gfs&var=201&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1 
Can't wait to see the back of this horrible cold cloudy and muggy weather out soon.  I see it down to -2C uppers here so mean glorious sunny days on the way and hope to boost sunshine hours which still over 12 hours maxmum to avoid a very dull Sept.  Temperatures not much different from yesterday 15-16C to 13-14c under a northerly but feel warmer due to sun out.
If was winter with 3-4 days of -10 to -12C uppers with stream of snow showers over here as we did well in 2021 snowy set ups.  Hope we see many northerlies to keep us dryer, sunnier, colder and some snow around than last wet winter.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
08 September 2024 07:11:48
WX temp charts show the big cold plunge very clearly this morning, with well-below average temps for Britain, France and Germany, by comparison warmer on either side. The pocket of cold air moves on SE-wards in week 2 to affect Germany, Poland and Balkans, while warmer air returns to England from the SW. N Scotland and Norway still cool. Rain in week 1 from the N Atlantic through Britain to Austria where notably heavy, splitting into two areas in week 2, one retreating back to the Atlantic, the other over the Adriatic, with S Britain becoming dry.

GFS Op - LP over England linking with another East of Iceland; by Wed 11th these have produced a centre 975mb Norwegian Sea with strong N-lies for Britain, but by Fri 13th pushed away E-wards as HP comes to dominate Britain 1030mb Sat 14th onwards albeit with LP systems brushing N Scotland. This persists to Sun 22nd when trough moves down from the NW 990mb N Ireland Mon 23rd. By that time an intense hurricane is off Newfoundland which should introduce some uncertainty into the models.

ECM - similar to GFS though LP closer to Scotland instead of just brushing it, Sun 15th and Tue 17th, with brisk SW-lies for Britain rather than calm conditions.

GEM - closer to ECM than GFS but basically similar pattern

GEFS - heavy rain in S at first, something more persistent in N Scotland later but otherwise small amounts anywhere on random dates. Temps up to 8C below norm generally Wed 11th - Sun 15th (Inverness has its first snow row figure of the winter, 3/32 on Thu 12th). A quick rebound to above norm on Mon 16th and then settling to a mean a little above norm but with little agreement between ens members.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+3
Saint Snow
08 September 2024 13:26:03
Some great looking set-ups on current MO for the next couple of weeks.

Where were charts like...

UserPostedImage

...for the past few months??

(Not all joy, mind; like when settled conditions have arrived through this summer but then been brushed aside within a few days by more unsettled crap, so it's the case with latest output)

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
White Meadows
08 September 2024 14:07:07
An interesting feature showing its hand for early autumn: the Siberian High. A prominent and often stubborn HP perhaps to become a regular for Autumn and beyond?
Jiries
08 September 2024 14:41:51

Some great looking set-ups on current MO for the next couple of weeks.

Where were charts like...

UserPostedImage

...for the past few months??

(Not all joy, mind; like when settled conditions have arrived through this summer but then been brushed aside within a few days by more unsettled crap, so it's the case with latest output)

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


Look like this strong 3 to 4 northerly is possible a proper pattern reset or re shuffles to something more typical British past patterns in our favour that we not see this year at all.  Today first time to see blue skies since end of August thanks to storms further south to clear up this muck.
DEW
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09 September 2024 07:09:17
WX temp summary much as yesterday, the cold plunge from a freezing Iceland reaching as far south as Alps and Pyrenees in week 1, and then in week 2 settling down as a cold pool in Austria and neighbouring regions, while some warmth creeps back from Biscay across S Britain. Rain mirroring the temp pattern with broad band of rain from the Norwegian Sea down to the Adriatic in week 1 (Britain on the fringe of this) and then in week 2 splitting, part to the N Atlantic, part to C Europe and the Adriatic while S Britain becomes mainly dry.

GFS Op - the current thundery trough in S England filling and moving N as it becomes entangled with a developing LP from E Iceland, that deepening 985mb Bergen Wed 11th with NW-lies for Britain. Having delivered its package of cold air to Europe, the LP moves off N-wards and a ridge of HP from the SW moves in along the Channel trapping the cold  to the south. That ridge is 1030mb in the Channel Sat 14th, SW-lies for Scotland, and LPs passing rather close to the far NW. That ridge moves first N-ward to Scotland 1030mb Tue 17th with NE-lies for England and then back again to S England Sat 21st. The following week looks uncertain with HP hanging on the S but a major ex(?)-hurricane mid-Atlantic set to confuse the models.

ECM - similar to GFS but in final chart Thu 19th the ridge of HP over Scotland has become a significant centre off N Norway 1035mb, dominating all of Britain except for some weak E-lies along the Channel.

GEM - somewhat like GFS but the ridge of HP intensifies across England Tue 17th rather than moving N-wards

GEFS - good ens agreement on a cold spell (7 or 8C below norm) Wed 11th - Sun 15th, temps recovering sharply and then the mean remains slightly above norm to end of forecast but with increasing uncertainty. Perhaps a little warmer for Scotland around Wed 18th. Very little rain for the S, at random intervals; rather more likely in the N esp far NW, greatest chances Sun 15th for a few days and again a week later.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+3
Saint Snow
09 September 2024 10:13:18
Both GFS and ECM 0z's continuing to show the development of high pressure just to the north/north-east of the UK as we move into the FI zone. It's a set-up I always like (but know it's not ideal for those on the east coast)

GEM more keen on high pressure over the south of the UK.

All would give some of the more traditional 'mists and mellow fruitfulness' that are beautiful in September.

One thing that did catch the eye right at the end of GFS was the movement towards the UK in the mid-Atlantic of what looks like a hurricane (more accurately a former hurricane, as I doubt it would still meet the criteria at that point). I don't think it's even formed yet, so an imaginative piece of modelling by GFS!

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
10 September 2024 07:23:07
WX temps show a cold pool derived from the N-ly plunge currently passing over Britain settling over the eastern Alps while into week 2 warmth comes back to England and S Scotland from the SW. The cold pool at that time links up with a large area of rather cool weather from Scandinavia to Russia which will be quite a change for E Europe. The rain in week 1 is located in the N Atlantic and Austria; in week 2 these wet areas move further apart and a large area of very dry weather develops over the N Sea and the Baltic, also reasonably dry for Britain on the edge of this.

GFS Op - LP 980mb near Shetland tomorrow bringing N/NW-lies for Britain for a few days until HP pushes in from the SW 1030mb S England Sat 14th. This persists, developing a broad ridge to Scandinavia, until Sat 21st when the centre moves east and LP flirts with the western coasts of Britain. By Wed 25th there is a very intense hurricane in the W Atlantic.

ECM - similar to GFS; if anything the ridge of HP is narrower and further south to start with so Scotland gets SW-lies around Tue 17th, then it moves north so the Channel gets NE-lies Fri 20th

GEM - rather closer to ECM; then by Fri 20th the HP is centred just north of Scotland rather than ridging to Scandinavia emphasising the NE-lies.

GEFS - cold or very cold to Sat 14th (say, 7 or 8 C below norm) then abruptly back to norm and staying there for the south or somewhat above for the north until Thu 26th with better agreement of ens members than yesterday, though not perfect. Minimal amounts of rain in the south, not much more in the north, without any special focus (except for the NW where some is likely around 15th and 25th)
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+4
Saint Snow
10 September 2024 09:15:26
The main models keeping with the general theme of much more settled weather after this week to take us to late September, with high pressure building first over the south then drifting NNE'wards to centre to the NE of the UK - but ridging SW over us (and further beyond at time)

Temps looking 'pleasant' rather than 'warm' in light winds (from a NNE to E'ly source.

I'd take that!



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
White Meadows
10 September 2024 10:26:45

The main models keeping with the general theme of much more settled weather after this week to take us to late September, with high pressure building first over the south then drifting NNE'wards to centre to the NE of the UK - but ridging SW over us (and further beyond at time)

Temps looking 'pleasant' rather than 'warm' in light winds (from a NNE to E'ly source.

I'd take that!

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


Indeed, today the last semi-foul day down south at least with high pressure becoming nicely established. It’ll be lovely having some blue skies and to light up the warm hues on the leaves while the temperature drops to a comfortable sleeping level overnight. 
Jiries
10 September 2024 11:04:01

Indeed, today the last semi-foul day down south at least with high pressure becoming nicely established. It’ll be lovely having some blue skies and to light up the warm hues on the leaves while the temperature drops to a comfortable sleeping level overnight. 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 


Yes thanks to the northerly blast that will change this horrible pattern we had for whole of 2024 so far.  Looking good as having my garden make over so having decent dry sunny days is a big help no mud around.    There was no northerly blast at all since Jan which brought sunny days so that 9 months wait.
White Meadows
10 September 2024 11:25:00

Yes thanks to the northerly blast that will change this horrible pattern we had for whole of 2024 so far.  Looking good as having my garden make over so having decent dry sunny days is a big help no mud around.    There was no northerly blast at all since Jan which brought sunny days so that 9 months wait.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 


Yep, an utterly uninteresting and boring year of Uk weather this year. Coolest since 2015, windy, plagued by cloud… which only served to drag up CET with muggy nights. Could have been even colder otherwise. 
Now we hope for some clear air from the pattern change, much better wind direction for this time of year to come. 
Retron
10 September 2024 17:02:23
If only it were January!
The GFS 12z is a picture. First up a cold NW'ly:
UserPostedImage
then the Azores High ridges in, linking with the Siberian High (already visible above), leading to something we've not seen in winter in years - a massive, blocking high stretching from Iceland to Finland, with ridging further east. NE'lies across the UK and a low near the south for added instability:
UserPostedImage
The whole lot then retrogresses, before eventually a low moves up from the south - a classic snowy breakdown (in January).
UserPostedImage
The odds of a repeat of this at the time of year when it would bring widespread snow are, of course, minimal. There is a theory that the weather has memory, i.e. patterns repeat after a while if the background drivers remain consistent, and indeed we saw it for the first half of summer, where the first halves of June *and* July were unusually cool compared to recent years. Will the pattern crop up again in winter? Perhaps, but I'd reckon late spring is more likely!

(The fun thing with all of this is that there's *so* much we still don't know. Why does the jet sometimes become slow-moving, leading to those repeated patterns, yet other times it suddenly becomes much more mobile? Why does an Atlantic hurricane sometimes dislodge things (i.e. earlier in the summer when we had some excruciatingly high dewpoints), yet other times it has no discernable effect? We have theories, and of course over on NetWeather the teleconnection folks would love to say they have the answers, but they don't - nobody does. For all our algorithms and data samples, we still can't crack the weather in 10 days' time with any great reliability. And I suspect that will continue to be the case for the rest of my life, at least!)
Leysdown, north Kent
+7
Jiries
10 September 2024 18:10:53
Interesting post Darren, if this set up become a habit then more chance for this to keep repeating it.  Otherwise let make this Autumn as short as possible like 1995 was the last time only 1 month Autumnal then snow at end of Nov and repeated set-up to April 1996 with easterly incursions. 
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
11 September 2024 07:02:01
WX temp charts not unlike yesterday's, in week 1 showing the cold plunge passing through Britain and settling as a cold pool over the Alps while something warmer moves back into Britain from the SW. But this renewal of warmth doesn't get so far north as previously shown  in week 2, with signs of a renewed N-ly plunge - Scotland cool and the first blue (i.e. freezing) spot of the winter in Europe, on the Norway-Sweden border. Rain in week 1 in two areas,  for the N Atlantic and around Austria,  switching in week 2 for something heading towards Biscay, splitting into two extensions, one to the Baltic and one to Italy. Yesterday's large dry area is no longer to be seen.

GFS Op - LP currently in the N Sea generating N-lies moving away N-wards in the next couple of days while HP moves in from the SW reaching its maximum 1040mb Shetland Wed 18th with broad ridge to Norway, and E-lies for England. It then retrogresses to Greenland and by Sun 22nd slack pressure ca 1016mb covers most of Europe. A new LP arises from this 980mb Dogger Wed 25th with new strong N-lies for Britain before again moving N-wards by the following weekend. Ex-hurricanes on the Atlantic are off the menu today.

ECM - similar to GFS though HP a day or two slower to establish as LP runs past NW Scotland Mon 16th

GEM - also similar to GFS; run only available to Sat 21st but at that point HP not retrogressing but rather beginning to extend a ridge to the SE

GEFS - temps recovering abruptly to norm Sun 15th and then with fair ens agreement a little (in the S) or much (in the N) above norm for the following week; then with less agreement dropping away esp in Scotland, spoilt by a short dip in op & control but not the majority Tue 17th. Very little rain for the whole period, a few small blips (showers?) at first, perhaps more in the N & W from Tue 24th.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+3
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
12 September 2024 07:21:27
WX temp charts for week 1 much as before, with the current cold plunge settling over the eastern Alps while something milder works across S Britain from the SW. This mildness doesn't make much headway and in week 2, there's more cold weather from the north affecting especially Scotland and Norway. Although the cold pool in Europe is fragmenting, it's very much still there - and  blue (freezing) spots are present in Iceland and N Russia. Rain in week 1 near Iceland, and also from Austria down the Adriatic, but Britain and Scandinavia dry; in week 2 blowing in across Biscay for Spain, France and Italy, fringing SW Britain.

GFS Op - current LP and trough soon away N-wards; HP moving in from SW and although LP brushes past NW Scotland at first, the HP soon establishes itself 1040mb Sutherland Tue 17th with broad ridge to Norway. This stays in place for the week though LP over Biscay increasingly threatens the SW and also generates stronger E-lies for England. By Sun 22nd the HP retreats to Greenland, The Biscayan LP extends a trough NE-wards to Norway and Britain comes under N-lies from Mon 23rd. Those fade after a couple of days, and after a brief interval a new Atlantic LP arrives 980 mb Donegal Sat 28th - winds mostly S-ly but quite a lot of cold air trapped in its circulation.

ECM - somewhat similar to GFS but less influence of LP from Biscay and then a distinct difference Sun 22nd when the HP instead of retreating NW-wards moves S-wards to England with the ridge to Scandinavia still much in evidence. This model has a well-organised ex-hurricane on mid-Atlantic by then; GFS if anything only has fragments which however may be responsible for the above LP Sun 28th.

GEM - closer to ECM; the HP still there on 22nd but still over Scotland. This model leaves out the ex-hurricane.

GEFS - in the S temps recover to norm by Sun 15th and stay there with good ens agreement until about Tue 24th when agreement breaks up - probably becoming cooler, the mean being driven in that direction by op & control. In the N, after the temp recovers on the 15th, a second jump to much above norm by Tue 17th. That slowly declines and from Tue 24th more likely to be cool than in the S including some very cold ens members. 
Very little rain throughout in most places but chances of some rain later on in the far W.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+6
GezM
  • GezM
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12 September 2024 08:18:26
It probably won't make much news over here but Austria and parts of its neighbouring countries look likely to get absolutely hammered with rain over the next few days. I'm expecting reports of severe flooding in that area over the weekend and beyond.
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
13 September 2024 07:04:50
WX temp charts more positive than yesterday. Week 1 sees the notably cold pool centred on Austria, but with Britain at least in the south warmer from the SW. In week 2 the cold pool has dispersed quickly and most of Europe is comfortably warm for the time of year, But there is still rather cold weather in the north affecting the far north of Scotland, the northern Baltic and Russia. Rain in week 1 in two area the N Atlantic and the Alps/Adriatic, very dry in between including Britain; in week 2 the dry area fills in to some extent from both sides.

GFS Op - HP moving in from the SW to cover Britain 1030mb by Mon 16th, though LP brushing NW Scotland while the HP gets established. For the following week it first strengthens with broad ridge to Norway but then moves N- and E-wards and weakens as shallow LP moves up from Biscay to cover England 1015mb Sat 21st. For some days most of N Europe has a slack pressure regime with HP lurking to the SW but not really dominating, resolved by a depression from the Atlantic running across N Scotland 980mb Shetland Sat 28th with W-lies for England and the near continent.

ECM - treats the breakdown of the HP differently; HP is maintained until Mon 23rd when it splits into a western and an eastern half with shallow LPs linking up from both N & S.

GEM - closer to GFS but the Biscayan LP keeps to the W and affects SW Ireland rather than England Sat 21st with SE-lies for most of Britain

GEFS - for  S England, temps soon recovering and staying near norm through to Sun 29th though ens agreement breaks up after 25th. In Scotland & N England, rather better than norm around Wed 18th  but slowly dropping back. Everywhere dry until about Mon 23rd after which an increasing number of runs have variable amounts of rain (but a small blip Sun 15th in the west). 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+5
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
13 September 2024 08:33:05
I’m interested in the weather around the Adriatic from next Friday.  We’re off on a two week cruise around Malta, Croatia, Slovenia, Montenegro and Italy.  Hoping it will be mostly rained out by then.  
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Saint Snow
13 September 2024 09:13:28
Steady as she goes, really.

Universal agreement for high pressure to migrate to our NE and ridge SW'wards over/beyond the UK, and remain like that for a few/several days.

Looking forward to it.


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Jiries
13 September 2024 09:23:41

Steady as she goes, really.

Universal agreement for high pressure to migrate to our NE and ridge SW'wards over/beyond the UK, and remain like that for a few/several days.

Looking forward to it.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


And very interesting set-up that we not see this for so long time and none of this year.  Used to be often in Spring season.  This current northerly had broke this unfavourite 2024 pattern that had been stuck since last year to something different. 1.1C this morning are interesting for not even yet mid September.
idj20
13 September 2024 09:57:52

Steady as she goes, really.

Universal agreement for high pressure to migrate to our NE and ridge SW'wards over/beyond the UK, and remain like that for a few/several days.

Looking forward to it.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


As long as low pressure over mainland Europe doesn't throw the spanner in the works as we go into next week, southern and eastern parts of the UK could end up having a lot of cloud and drizzle muck out of that while West Is Best. Probably would deliver something of a wintry note if it is late January/early February, though (most likely still be cold drizzle anyway).
Folkestone Harbour. 
+1
Jiries
13 September 2024 10:04:01

As long as low pressure over mainland Europe doesn't throw the spanner in the works as we go into next week, southern and eastern parts of the UK could end up having a lot of cloud and drizzle muck out of that while West Is Best. Probably would deliver something of a wintry note if it is late January/early February, though (most likely still be cold drizzle anyway).

Originally Posted by: idj20 


Sea temps are still high enough not to bring cloud and muck to the coastal areas than in Spring?

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