WX temp charts for week 1 much as before, with the current cold plunge settling over the eastern Alps while something milder works across S Britain from the SW. This mildness doesn't make much headway and in week 2, there's more cold weather from the north affecting especially Scotland and Norway. Although the cold pool in Europe is fragmenting, it's very much still there - and blue (freezing) spots are present in Iceland and N Russia. Rain in week 1 near Iceland, and also from Austria down the Adriatic, but Britain and Scandinavia dry; in week 2 blowing in across Biscay for Spain, France and Italy, fringing SW Britain.
GFS Op - current LP and trough soon away N-wards; HP moving in from SW and although LP brushes past NW Scotland at first, the HP soon establishes itself 1040mb Sutherland Tue 17th with broad ridge to Norway. This stays in place for the week though LP over Biscay increasingly threatens the SW and also generates stronger E-lies for England. By Sun 22nd the HP retreats to Greenland, The Biscayan LP extends a trough NE-wards to Norway and Britain comes under N-lies from Mon 23rd. Those fade after a couple of days, and after a brief interval a new Atlantic LP arrives 980 mb Donegal Sat 28th - winds mostly S-ly but quite a lot of cold air trapped in its circulation.
ECM - somewhat similar to GFS but less influence of LP from Biscay and then a distinct difference Sun 22nd when the HP instead of retreating NW-wards moves S-wards to England with the ridge to Scandinavia still much in evidence. This model has a well-organised ex-hurricane on mid-Atlantic by then; GFS if anything only has fragments which however may be responsible for the above LP Sun 28th.
GEM - closer to ECM; the HP still there on 22nd but still over Scotland. This model leaves out the ex-hurricane.
GEFS - in the S temps recover to norm by Sun 15th and stay there with good ens agreement until about Tue 24th when agreement breaks up - probably becoming cooler, the mean being driven in that direction by op & control. In the N, after the temp recovers on the 15th, a second jump to much above norm by Tue 17th. That slowly declines and from Tue 24th more likely to be cool than in the S including some very cold ens members.
Very little rain throughout in most places but chances of some rain later on in the far W.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell
Chichester 12m asl