WX temp charts for week 1 show the remnants of storm Boris breaking into small pools in various places but Europe as a whole returning to something above norm. Then in week 2 a fresh plunge from the north, Europe from the Alps and Pyrenees northwards becoming cool, Scotland cold and S Norway freezing. Dry in week 1 for Scotland, but England and most of W Europe wet, this area stretching down to the Med around Italy. In week 2, only Ukraine is dry, the rest of Europe wet including Scandinavia which has the heaviest of the rain.
GFS Op - HP gradually moving N as (thundery?) LP moves from the south to cover England 1015mb Sun 22nd. This gradually moves NE-wards and joins forces with new LP from Atlantic to form a trough from S Britain (980mb Wales) to N Norway by Thu 26th with strong NE-ly feed from well north of the Arctic Circle. Again this moves away NE-wards, and pressure rises for a couple of days, before another Atlantic LP 995mb reaches Biscay Wed 2nd, and sets up a reload of the NE-lies though much weaker. By Sat Oct 5th, back to the conventional zonal W-lies. Jet stream in strong but intermittent streaks across Britain throughout.
ECM - like GFS. The NE-lies perhaps not quite as strong but at end of run Sun 29th has LP near Rockall and threatening an earlier re-load.
GEM - similar to GFS throughout
GEFS - temps dropping to near norm by Thu 26th with good ens agreement, then a cool/cold period to Wed 2nd with less agreement and the op run amongst the coldest. Some recovery after that. Rain starting Sun 22nd in the S, a couple of days later in Scotland, frequent and continual into October but front-loaded in the north.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell
Chichester 12m asl