This warm period increasingly being spoilt by near gale force winds along the coast. Not sure how far inland this has become an issue but we’re getting gusts close to 40mph and tomorrow due to be even worse. Good for sailing, bad for most other things leisure related! Not to mention the leaves prematurely being stripped from the trees. 

I rather take winds than clouds was a massive failure forecast as sun came out severe late at 2pm and not windy. Predicting 24 here tomorrow so need sun rise to peak time to achieve this for this time of the year.

Strongest gusts have been in the Worthing & Dover areas and they've been close to 30mph. Here they have been in the lower 20's in exposed locations but that hasn't stopped the temperature climbing to 25C.

WX temp charts for week 1 show the remnants of storm Boris breaking into small pools in various places but Europe as a whole returning to something above norm. Then in week 2 a fresh plunge from the north, Europe from the Alps and Pyrenees northwards becoming cool, Scotland cold and S Norway freezing. Dry in week 1 for Scotland, but England and most of W Europe wet, this area stretching down to the Med around Italy. In week 2, only Ukraine is dry, the rest of Europe wet including Scandinavia which has the heaviest of the rain.

GFS Op - HP gradually moving N as (thundery?) LP moves from the south to cover England 1015mb Sun 22nd. This gradually moves NE-wards and joins forces with new LP from Atlantic to form a trough from S Britain (980mb Wales) to N Norway by Thu 26th with strong NE-ly feed from well north of the Arctic Circle. Again this moves away NE-wards, and pressure rises for a couple of days, before another Atlantic LP 995mb reaches Biscay Wed 2nd, and sets up a reload of the NE-lies though much weaker. By Sat Oct 5th, back to the conventional zonal W-lies. Jet stream in strong but  intermittent streaks across Britain throughout.

ECM - like GFS. The NE-lies perhaps not quite as strong but at end of run Sun 29th has LP near Rockall and threatening an earlier re-load.

GEM - similar to GFS throughout

GEFS - temps dropping to near norm by Thu 26th with good ens agreement, then a cool/cold period to Wed 2nd with less agreement and the op run amongst the coldest. Some recovery after that. Rain starting Sun 22nd in the S, a couple of days later in Scotland, frequent and continual into October but front-loaded in the north. 

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Looks awful for next week. Autumn arrives with a vengeance. Will have to check the boiler still works!

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EC seems to be holding onto the idea of another cooler shot towards the end of the month. Northerly shots do seem to be increasing in frequency over the last few weeks. 

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