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picturesareme
22 September 2024 23:21:01
?si=_knPbtB58IU9c42d
Not unknown but also not that common... And un spring.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
23 September 2024 05:54:38
One dead and several missing after 'unprecedented' rains in Japan
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c20pkwd4dg2o 

War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
23 September 2024 07:21:50
This seems to be the year of floods globally! 
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
Gandalf The White
23 September 2024 12:43:42

This seems to be the year of floods globally! 

Originally Posted by: GezM 


Warmer oceans + warmer air = more moisture in the air, stronger storms and more precipitation.  We are busily destabilising our atmosphere and the predictions are coming true - but rather faster than expected.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Jiries
23 September 2024 15:16:49
Lot of interesting storms over Cyprus in the last 3 days, temperatures sent down as low as 19.5C yesterday in Nicosia which is consider cold for this time of the year when aveage is 34C  A lot interesting there than here so boring bog standard rain for 2 days for no reason why it not cleared away within few hours.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
23 September 2024 16:00:45

Warmer oceans + warmer air = more moisture in the air, stronger storms and more precipitation.  We are busily destabilising our atmosphere and the predictions are coming true - but rather faster than expected.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


But not the year of hurricanes, despite earlier confident predictions that it would be a record-breaking year. On a naive view, widely higher SSTs should have guaranteed bigger storms - but the normal trigger events (i.e. troughs moving out of W Africa and crossing to the Caribbean) were  displaced northwards. The Sahel got unusual rain and potential hurricanes were quenched because they entrained dry Saharan air.

I've not seen an explanation yet.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Gandalf The White
23 September 2024 19:33:24

But not the year of hurricanes, despite earlier confident predictions that it would be a record-breaking year. On a naive view, widely higher SSTs should have guaranteed bigger storms - but the normal trigger events (i.e. troughs moving out of W Africa and crossing to the Caribbean) were  displaced northwards. The Sahel got unusual rain and potential hurricanes were quenched because they entrained dry Saharan air.

I've not seen an explanation yet.

Originally Posted by: DEW 


I think there are parallels with forecasts for cold UK winters: the pieces have to fall the right way.  As you say, the analysis will be interesting.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


SydneyonTees
24 September 2024 22:12:54

Warmer oceans + warmer air = more moisture in the air, stronger storms and more precipitation.  We are busily destabilising our atmosphere and the predictions are coming true - but rather faster than expected.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 



We also shouldn't discount the impact of the  2022 Hunga Tonga–Hunga Haʻapai eruption. 

"The underwater explosion also sent 146 million tons of water from the South Pacific Ocean into the stratosphere. The amount of water vapor ejected was 10 percent of the stratosphere's typical stock. It was enough to temporarily warm the surface of Earth. It is estimated that an excess of water vapour should remain for 5–10 years."

The impacts of the irruption contentious perhaps, but what it put into the atmosphere isn't.

Plus if we get a La Nina this year it would be the 4th in 5 years, which is very unusual. For Australia that means wetter and cooler summers, at least for the eastern seaboard anyway.
NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
25 September 2024 05:58:05

We also shouldn't discount the impact of the  2022 Hunga Tonga–Hunga Haʻapai eruption. 

"The underwater explosion also sent 146 million tons of water from the South Pacific Ocean into the stratosphere. The amount of water vapor ejected was 10 percent of the stratosphere's typical stock. It was enough to temporarily warm the surface of Earth. It is estimated that an excess of water vapour should remain for 5–10 years."

The impacts of the irruption contentious perhaps, but what it put into the atmosphere isn't.

Plus if we get a La Nina this year it would be the 4th in 5 years, which is very unusual. For Australia that means wetter and cooler summers, at least for the eastern seaboard anyway.

Originally Posted by: SydneyonTees 


I’m sure some time back I asked the same question. Apparently the consensus in the scientific community was that the water went into a place where it would have minimal if any impact on atmospheric water concentrations.
Or something like that and it merely coincided with increased rainfalls around the planet due to other factors. I’m certainly no expert and haven't really followed the story but thanks for reminding me.
Vale of the Great Dairies
South Dorset
Elevation 60m 197ft
Gandalf The White
25 September 2024 13:06:12

We also shouldn't discount the impact of the  2022 Hunga Tonga–Hunga Haʻapai eruption. 

"The underwater explosion also sent 146 million tons of water from the South Pacific Ocean into the stratosphere. The amount of water vapor ejected was 10 percent of the stratosphere's typical stock. It was enough to temporarily warm the surface of Earth. It is estimated that an excess of water vapour should remain for 5–10 years."

The impacts of the irruption contentious perhaps, but what it put into the atmosphere isn't.

Plus if we get a La Nina this year it would be the 4th in 5 years, which is very unusual. For Australia that means wetter and cooler summers, at least for the eastern seaboard anyway.

Originally Posted by: SydneyonTees 


Thanks for that; some interesting points.

First, the warming effect of the extra 10% of water vapour shows the climate change impact of a warming atmosphere holding more moisture: a ‘double whammy’ if you like, of CO2+water vapour, plus a question mark over the effect on cloud cover (can be positive or negative).

It has also been suggested that the changing ENSO pattern might also be linked with climate change.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Chunky Pea
25 September 2024 13:17:12

We also shouldn't discount the impact of the  2022 Hunga Tonga–Hunga Haʻapai eruption. 

"The underwater explosion also sent 146 million tons of water from the South Pacific Ocean into the stratosphere. The amount of water vapor ejected was 10 percent of the stratosphere's typical stock. It was enough to temporarily warm the surface of Earth. It is estimated that an excess of water vapour should remain for 5–10 years."

The impacts of the irruption contentious perhaps, but what it put into the atmosphere isn't.

Plus if we get a La Nina this year it would be the 4th in 5 years, which is very unusual. For Australia that means wetter and cooler summers, at least for the eastern seaboard anyway.

Originally Posted by: SydneyonTees 


I saw a video recently claiming that the Hunga Tonga eruption may end up having a net cooling effect in the longer term. Can't remember which channel I saw it on, or the specific details  but I'll try to root it out later on. 
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 


"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Gandalf The White
25 September 2024 13:35:36

I saw a video recently claiming that the Hunga Tonga eruption may end up having a net cooling effect in the longer term. Can't remember which channel I saw it on, or the specific details  but I'll try to root it out later on. 

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 


I am not aware of any atmospheric processes whereby a sudden increase in gases and water vapour following an eruption could have any long term effects. Surely a return to the status quo is the outcome?  If not, surely the effects of every major eruption would have left a lasting measurable impact - which again, I don’t think is the case?
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Chunky Pea
25 September 2024 13:42:26

I am not aware of any atmospheric processes whereby a sudden increase in gases and water vapour following an eruption could have any long term effects. Surely a return to the status quo is the outcome?  If not, surely the effects of every major eruption would have left a lasting measurable impact - which again, I don’t think is the case?

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


I recall reading an incredible book in the uni library years ago charting the effects of the Icelandic eruption of the late 18th century over northern Europe. Electrified summers, with, and I remember this line, 'no rain without thunder'. Dry fogs (haze) and bitter winters. The effect of this eruption lasted for a few years, with no doubt some lag effect going on as the atmosphere reset itself. 
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 


"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Saint Snow
25 September 2024 13:51:59

But not the year of hurricanes, despite earlier confident predictions that it would be a record-breaking year. On a naive view, widely higher SSTs should have guaranteed bigger storms - but the normal trigger events (i.e. troughs moving out of W Africa and crossing to the Caribbean) were  displaced northwards. The Sahel got unusual rain and potential hurricanes were quenched because they entrained dry Saharan air.

I've not seen an explanation yet.

Originally Posted by: DEW 



That's rather fascinating - and it'll be great to read the explanations when they finally get published.



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Saint Snow
25 September 2024 13:55:40
On a wider topic, the number of 'freak' weather events and displaced weather patterns has been much higher than usual this year.

Every time, though, that climate change is mentioned as a likely cause, the army of deniers (and bots for the fossil fuel industry) will dredge up some historical event in that place to attempt to prove that, because 🇪🇬 the Danube flooded just as bad if not worse in the 17th Century, talk of climate change is hokey. The problem is that these events are happening in many more places much more regularly.



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
25 September 2024 14:29:13

I recall reading an incredible book in the uni library years ago charting the effects of the Icelandic eruption of the late 18th century over northern Europe. Electrified summers, with, and I remember this line, 'no rain without thunder'. Dry fogs (haze) and bitter winters. The effect of this eruption lasted for a few years, with no doubt some lag effect going on as the atmosphere reset itself. 

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 


That book is probably Island on Fire: The extraordinary story of Laki, the volcano that turned eighteenth-century Europe dark
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Island-Fire-extraordinary-volcano-eighteenth-century/dp/1781250049
A good read too.
Vale of the Great Dairies
South Dorset
Elevation 60m 197ft
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
27 October 2024 22:27:15
Philadephia, Nashville  and Atlanta about to have their first entirely dry October since records began (1870s). The US as a whole is suffering a major drought, despite Helene and Milton, and this October may well be the second driest month ever recorded in any season - current total averaged across the contiguous US is 0.57 inch.

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2024/10/october-is-aiming-to-smoke-u-s-records-for-dryness-and-warmth/ 

War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
29 October 2024 17:02:35
Mount Fuji remains snowless for longer than ever before

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx2dp1l8wklo 

War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
30 October 2024 07:14:26
https://news.sky.com/story/several-bodies-found-as-flash-floods-sweep-cars-through-streets-in-spain-13244275 


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Ulric
30 October 2024 08:03:26
The situation in Valencia is extraordinary. 343 mm of rain was recorded in just 4 hours yesterday, between 4:30 PM and 8:30 PM.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c93qlpp5gxvo 


No rational argument will have a rational effect on a man who does not want to adopt a rational attitude. - Karl Popper
Ally Pally Snowman
30 October 2024 08:53:53
51 dead now is Spanish floods. Significant event.
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
The Beast from the East
30 October 2024 09:30:23

51 dead now is Spanish floods. Significant event.

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


If this was America, there would be wall to wall media coverage. 

Is there a radar animation available of what happened?
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Ally Pally Snowman
30 October 2024 10:08:52

If this was America, there would be wall to wall media coverage. 

Is there a radar animation available of what happened?

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Exactly,  it is now though the top story on the BBC website, as it should be. Apparently some areas had 50cm of rain in 8hrs. Crazy!
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Russwirral
30 October 2024 10:38:47
Aye, in Chiva they had 490mm in 8 hrs

Here is the closest i could find: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/ICHIVA40/graph/2024-10-29/2024-10-29/daily

Alot of interest in hurricanes, this i would say surpasses that kind of impact for deluge specifically... 8hrs!
Hungry Tiger
30 October 2024 11:18:27

Aye, in Chiva they had 490mm in 8 hrs

Here is the closest i could find: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/ICHIVA40/graph/2024-10-29/2024-10-29/daily

Alot of interest in hurricanes, this i would say surpasses that kind of impact for deluge specifically... 8hrs!

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 


Incredible. I wondered what the totals were. There's some Incredible photos of these floods.  😞 
Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


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