This seems to be the year of floods globally! 

Originally Posted by: GezM 

Warmer oceans + warmer air = more moisture in the air, stronger storms and more precipitation.  We are busily destabilising our atmosphere and the predictions are coming true - but rather faster than expected.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

But not the year of hurricanes, despite earlier confident predictions that it would be a record-breaking year. On a naive view, widely higher SSTs should have guaranteed bigger storms - but the normal trigger events (i.e. troughs moving out of W Africa and crossing to the Caribbean) were  displaced northwards. The Sahel got unusual rain and potential hurricanes were quenched because they entrained dry Saharan air.

I've not seen an explanation yet.

Originally Posted by: DEW 

Warmer oceans + warmer air = more moisture in the air, stronger storms and more precipitation.  We are busily destabilising our atmosphere and the predictions are coming true - but rather faster than expected.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

We also shouldn't discount the impact of the  2022 Hunga Tonga–Hunga Haʻapai eruption. 

"The underwater explosion also sent 146 million tons of water from the South Pacific Ocean into the stratosphere. The amount of water vapor ejected was 10 percent of the stratosphere's typical stock. It was enough to temporarily warm the surface of Earth. It is estimated that an excess of water vapour should remain for 5–10 years."

The impacts of the irruption contentious perhaps, but what it put into the atmosphere isn't.

Plus if we get a La Nina this year it would be the 4th in 5 years, which is very unusual. For Australia that means wetter and cooler summers, at least for the eastern seaboard anyway.

Originally Posted by: SydneyonTees 

We also shouldn't discount the impact of the  2022 Hunga Tonga–Hunga Haʻapai eruption. 

"The underwater explosion also sent 146 million tons of water from the South Pacific Ocean into the stratosphere. The amount of water vapor ejected was 10 percent of the stratosphere's typical stock. It was enough to temporarily warm the surface of Earth. It is estimated that an excess of water vapour should remain for 5–10 years."

The impacts of the irruption contentious perhaps, but what it put into the atmosphere isn't.

Plus if we get a La Nina this year it would be the 4th in 5 years, which is very unusual. For Australia that means wetter and cooler summers, at least for the eastern seaboard anyway.

Originally Posted by: SydneyonTees 

We also shouldn't discount the impact of the  2022 Hunga Tonga–Hunga Haʻapai eruption. 

"The underwater explosion also sent 146 million tons of water from the South Pacific Ocean into the stratosphere. The amount of water vapor ejected was 10 percent of the stratosphere's typical stock. It was enough to temporarily warm the surface of Earth. It is estimated that an excess of water vapour should remain for 5–10 years."

The impacts of the irruption contentious perhaps, but what it put into the atmosphere isn't.

Plus if we get a La Nina this year it would be the 4th in 5 years, which is very unusual. For Australia that means wetter and cooler summers, at least for the eastern seaboard anyway.

Originally Posted by: SydneyonTees 

I saw a video recently claiming that the Hunga Tonga eruption may end up having a net cooling effect in the longer term. Can't remember which channel I saw it on, or the specific details  but I'll try to root it out later on. 

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 

I am not aware of any atmospheric processes whereby a sudden increase in gases and water vapour following an eruption could have any long term effects. Surely a return to the status quo is the outcome?  If not, surely the effects of every major eruption would have left a lasting measurable impact - which again, I don’t think is the case?

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

But not the year of hurricanes, despite earlier confident predictions that it would be a record-breaking year. On a naive view, widely higher SSTs should have guaranteed bigger storms - but the normal trigger events (i.e. troughs moving out of W Africa and crossing to the Caribbean) were  displaced northwards. The Sahel got unusual rain and potential hurricanes were quenched because they entrained dry Saharan air.

I've not seen an explanation yet.

Originally Posted by: DEW 

I recall reading an incredible book in the uni library years ago charting the effects of the Icelandic eruption of the late 18th century over northern Europe. Electrified summers, with, and I remember this line, 'no rain without thunder'. Dry fogs (haze) and bitter winters. The effect of this eruption lasted for a few years, with no doubt some lag effect going on as the atmosphere reset itself. 

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 

51 dead now is Spanish floods. Significant event.

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

If this was America, there would be wall to wall media coverage. 

Is there a radar animation available of what happened?

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

Aye, in Chiva they had 490mm in 8 hrs

Here is the closest i could find: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/ICHIVA40/graph/2024-10-29/2024-10-29/daily

Alot of interest in hurricanes, this i would say surpasses that kind of impact for deluge specifically... 8hrs!

Originally Posted by: Russwirral