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White Meadows
18 September 2024 13:18:00
This warm period increasingly being spoilt by near gale force winds along the coast. Not sure how far inland this has become an issue but we’re getting gusts close to 40mph and tomorrow due to be even worse. Good for sailing, bad for most other things leisure related! Not to mention the leaves prematurely being stripped from the trees. 


Jiries
18 September 2024 14:41:06

This warm period increasingly being spoilt by near gale force winds along the coast. Not sure how far inland this has become an issue but we’re getting gusts close to 40mph and tomorrow due to be even worse. Good for sailing, bad for most other things leisure related! Not to mention the leaves prematurely being stripped from the trees. 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 



I rather take winds than clouds was a massive failure forecast as sun came out severe late at 2pm and not windy. Predicting 24 here tomorrow so need sun rise to peak time to achieve this for this time of the year.
picturesareme
18 September 2024 15:56:31

This warm period increasingly being spoilt by near gale force winds along the coast. Not sure how far inland this has become an issue but we’re getting gusts close to 40mph and tomorrow due to be even worse. Good for sailing, bad for most other things leisure related! Not to mention the leaves prematurely being stripped from the trees. 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 


Strongest gusts have been in the Worthing & Dover areas and they've been close to 30mph. Here they have been in the lower 20's in exposed locations but that hasn't stopped the temperature climbing to 25C.
DEW
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19 September 2024 07:17:53
WX temp charts for week 1 show the remnants of storm Boris breaking into small pools in various places but Europe as a whole returning to something above norm. Then in week 2 a fresh plunge from the north, Europe from the Alps and Pyrenees northwards becoming cool, Scotland cold and S Norway freezing. Dry in week 1 for Scotland, but England and most of W Europe wet, this area stretching down to the Med around Italy. In week 2, only Ukraine is dry, the rest of Europe wet including Scandinavia which has the heaviest of the rain.

GFS Op - HP gradually moving N as (thundery?) LP moves from the south to cover England 1015mb Sun 22nd. This gradually moves NE-wards and joins forces with new LP from Atlantic to form a trough from S Britain (980mb Wales) to N Norway by Thu 26th with strong NE-ly feed from well north of the Arctic Circle. Again this moves away NE-wards, and pressure rises for a couple of days, before another Atlantic LP 995mb reaches Biscay Wed 2nd, and sets up a reload of the NE-lies though much weaker. By Sat Oct 5th, back to the conventional zonal W-lies. Jet stream in strong but  intermittent streaks across Britain throughout.

ECM - like GFS. The NE-lies perhaps not quite as strong but at end of run Sun 29th has LP near Rockall and threatening an earlier re-load.

GEM - similar to GFS throughout

GEFS - temps dropping to near norm by Thu 26th with good ens agreement, then a cool/cold period to Wed 2nd with less agreement and the op run amongst the coldest. Some recovery after that. Rain starting Sun 22nd in the S, a couple of days later in Scotland, frequent and continual into October but front-loaded in the north. 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+6
The Beast from the East
19 September 2024 09:53:24
Looks awful for next week. Autumn arrives with a vengeance. Will have to check the boiler still works!
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
+2
Chunky Pea
19 September 2024 13:30:20
EC seems to be holding onto the idea of another cooler shot towards the end of the month. Northerly shots do seem to be increasing in frequency over the last few weeks. 
UserPostedImage
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
DEW
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20 September 2024 07:17:14
WX temps: In week 1 the cold pool over C Europe moving a little W-wards and hanging on longer than shown yesterday while Britain to its north has some milder air though no more than average. Then in week 2 another cold shot but again slightly different from yesterday with the main plunge moving SE rather than S-wards heading for Czechia; Scotland catching a bit of it but SW England still mild.

GFS Op - HP across the north dissipating as LP moves from the south to Cornwall 1010mb Sun 22nd. This moves on to Norway but is joined by another from the Atlantic 990mb Wales Wed 25th and the two together form an extended trough with strong N-lies at first, going round NW-ly by Sat 28th. A modest reload on Sun 29th with poor weather mainly affecting the east coast followed by a rise in pressure 1025mb covering all Britain Tue 1st. Atlantic LP then brings up warmth from the south, gradually moving east and filling 1010mb Brittany Fri 4th as a a new strong area of HP returns to Scotland 1025mb Sun 6th. In the latter stage of this forecast an ex-hurricane is storming N-wards heading for Greenland. 

ECM - similar to GFS until Sun 29th when there is no reload as LP settles near Iceland instead of crossing Britain from the SW.

GEM - similar to GFS but reload on Sun 29th more marked with LP 995mb Bristol Channel

GEFS - better ens agreement this morning - from just above norm or even warmer in Scotland dropping sharply Thu 26th and settling at 7 or 8C below norm for the following week, recovering to norm from about Wed 2nd. Some rain at many times in most runs, driest in far NE,  heaviest in the S around Wed 25th, chances of dry weather greatest around Tue 1st.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+3
DEW
  • DEW
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21 September 2024 07:15:05
WX temp summary keeps cool air over C Europe in week 1, and although there is some milder air along the Channel and Baltic coasts, even warm into Poland, areas to the north incl Scotland are also cool. In week 2 Autumn really sets in with cool air over all of Europe (ca 10C day-night) except for some Mediterranean warmth, some of which escapes via Biscay and offers something milder to SW Britain. Rain quite heavy for England, France and S Baltic in week 1, then in week 2 damp but not heavy for most of Europe ( though Scotland dry).

GFS Op - current HP over Scotland being pushed away by (?thundery) LP from the SW, the LP moving on NE-wards but joined by Atlantic LP so by Thu 26th trough lying between 995mb Channel and 985mb N Norway with N-lies for Britain. On Mon 30th HP 1025mb has appeared over Britain with the N-ly plunge pushed E-wards into Europe. This HP persists through to Mon 7th though with areas of lower pressure skirmishing around SW and W coasts of Britain.

ECM - like GFS to Mon 30th when the HP is a transient affair as LP 995mb is closer to the SW and then moves to W Scotland 995mb Inner Hebrides Tue 1st and affecting the rest of Britain.

GEM - somewhere between GFS and ECM

GEFS - temps near or a little above norm until Thu 26th or a day or two earlier in the N, then dipping to cold until Tue 1st, all with good ens agreement, after which back to near norm with bigger variation between runs. Heavy rain for the S for most of the coming week, dry for a few days, then more rain from Tue 1st, this rain less likely in the N. Inverness snow row at 10/33 on Sat 28th so expect a covering for the Highlands.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+1
DEW
  • DEW
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22 September 2024 07:11:51
WX temps - a northerly influence for Europe for the next two weeks with Norway, ominously for the Autumn Equinox showing quite extensive areas of freezing condition. In week 1, the cooler weather is directed down through Britain into France (though Channel coasts escape somewhat), then in week 2 through the Baltic into Poland. Rain for much of NW Europe in week 1, especially heavy in SW Britain; in week 2 this trundles off NE-wards to affect mainly the Baltic but with a patch lingering over N Spain. Dry conditions for the E Mediterranean in week 2.

GFS Op - current thundery LP moving slowly NE but reinforced by new LP into SW Britain by Thu 26th together forming a twin-centre trough from Dogger 985mb to North Cape, Norway, 985mb and strong N-lies for Britain. By Sat 28th this LP re-groups near Svalbard while pressure rises over France, only for it to project a new trough SW-wards past W Ireland Mon 30th (with a short-lived secondary LP in the Irish Sea) . That trough moves E-wards by fits and starts with winds for Britain going round from SW to NE by Fri 3rd. At the end however, a large HP cell moves in from the N, 1035mb Scotland Tue 8th.

ECM - as GFS to Mon 30th when the trough starts to form but then swivels round to become aligned NW-SE Wed 2nd between centres 985mb Greenland and 990mb S Ireland

GEM - like GFS but on Mon 30th the 'short-lived LP' is more of a feature 1000mb Cornwall and running up the Channel so that the parent trough swings into the N Sea more quickly

GEFS - temps showing a big dip Thu 26th - Mon 30th, starting a day or two earlier in the N, down to 8C below norm with good ens agreement, a pulse of warmth on the rebound, then with much less agreement mean temp near norm, op run being one of the colder ones. Heavy rain around Thu 26th (esp in S) and Tue 1st (esp in NW), not exactly dry at other times.


A 'hat-trick' day - TWO members too busy posting about current convection to worry about the longer-term models!
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+3
Jiries
22 September 2024 10:02:12
This coming northerly will bring as low as -3C 858s air so more interesting due to sunny weather, warmer in doors and fresh air.  For now so boring wet weather for the season of death.  Any rain here give me a yawn and borefest unlike I enjoyed the past thunderstorms here or storms over Cyprus or USA i seen before.  
To note this northerly for 2nd time had not been shunted east or downgraded like recent northerlies.  If 2 shots this month how many more by winter months?
ozone_aurora
22 September 2024 10:04:53

This coming northerly will bring as low as -3C 858s air so more interesting due to sunny weather, warmer in doors and fresh air.  For now so boring wet weather for the season of death.  Any rain here give me a yawn and borefest unlike I enjoyed the past thunderstorms here or storms over Cyprus or USA i seen before.  
To note this northerly for 2nd time had not been shunted east or downgraded like recent northerlies.  If 2 shots this month how many more by winter months?

Originally Posted by: Jiries 


There seems to be signs of a downgrade according to latest GFS (11.05 am). The end of the month also looks potentially quite warm in the SE (perhaps quite thundery too). Anyway, we see how things pan out.
doctormog
22 September 2024 10:15:12
The 528 dam line (500 - 1000 hPa) is knocking on the door here on Friday. Chilly for September.
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_126_33.png 
UserPostedImage
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
+3
Retron
22 September 2024 10:27:19

The 528 dam line (500 - 1000 hPa) is knocking on the door here on Friday. Chilly for September.
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_126_33.png 

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


That's a (northerly) blast from the past! Back when I watched these things more closely, whenever the MRF/AVN/GFS showed a similar cold plunge this time of year, or more commonly in early October, two things followed. One, the cold plunge got watered down nearer the time and two, the following winter was invariably mild, wet and windy.

Hopefully things have moved on since the late 90s/early 2000s!
Leysdown, north Kent
+1
Jiries
22 September 2024 10:30:20

There seems to be signs of a downgrade according to latest GFS (11.05 am). The end of the month also looks potentially quite warm in the SE (perhaps quite thundery too). Anyway, we see how things pan out.

Originally Posted by: ozone_aurora 


If a downgrade by taking away further wet weather after the northerly then that good if they are bringing in warmer temps asap.  I always like a repeat of Oct 1995 that lasted nearly 4 weeks of dry, sunny weather and cut the Death season durnation.
DEW
  • DEW
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23 September 2024 06:45:50
WX temps in week 1 clearly showing a plunge of the N-lies through Britain and down to the S of France and Switzerland, SSTs along the Channel keeping it a little milder there. In week 2, the focus moves east, as the colder air displaces warmth over the E Baltic and Poland, while warmer temps move N over W France. Norway and to some extent N Scotland get caught both weeks. Rain for NW Europe and Scandinavia week 1, heavy in various places, this wet area moving N-wards in week 2 to clear France and Germany but not Britain and Scandinavia.

GFS Op - as previously, current LP moves NE-wards only to be reinforced by an Atlantic LP reaching the south so by Thu 26th an elongated trough between 985mb centres in N Norway and Cornwall with cold NE-lies setting in. This trough pivots about its N end so by Sat 28th winds go round to NW-ly. Then a brief rise of pressure before new Atlantic LP reaches N England 995mb Mon 30th. More LPs on passage, N of Scotland with secondary to Ireland Thu 3rd then 1005mb E Anglia Sun 6th but with a SW-ly cast it should become mild. Finally HP establishes across England 1020mb Tue 8th though still some NW-lies for NE Scotland.

ECM - like GFS but pressure rise after Sat 28th looks stronger and may persist

GEM - like GFS 

GEFS - temp dips some 7 or 8 C below norm , in the S 26th - 30th, in the N 25th - 1st, with good ens agreement, recovering swiftly and then staying near norm but with less agreement. Heavy rain now for the S, more generally around Thu 26th and Tue 1st with the S getting the worst of it, much less in far NE, decreasing later but still not dry. 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+4
DEW
  • DEW
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24 September 2024 07:05:32
WX temp charts continuing yesterday's trend; a N-ly plunge in week 1 with notably cool air spreading through Britain to affect France and Germany, Poland still warm. Then in week 2 the plunge is diverted eastwards to affect Germany and Poland, with warm/mild air from the SW coming back to France and S Britain. N Scotland is still cool and Scandinavia cold throughout. Rain in week 1 for much of NW Europe and Scandinavia, heavy in places, declining and retreating towards the Atlantic in week 2.

GFS Op - as noted previously, current LP resolving into a twin-centre trough by Thu 26th, between 985mb N Finland and 990mb C England with cold NE-lies developing. This cold plunge is diverted E-wards by a brief rise in pressure over England before a new LP steams in from the Atlantic 990mb Clyde Mon 30th. This is followed by  a weaker LP 1000mb Irish Sea Thu 3rd before pressure rises and eventually settles over Denmark 1025mb Mon 7th. Britain then lies in warm and (probably) dry S-lie s between this HP and a static LP mid-Atlantic.

ECM - as GFS to Mon 30th when the new LP (Mon 30th) is further south 985mb SE Ireland Tue 1st. This fills in situ, and the 'weaker LP' is not hew but just the remnants of the first one

GEM - as GFS but the LP Mon 30th is much deeper (960mb) with severe gales and then drifts into the N Sea, filling as in ECM. This model has better-defined remnants of ex-hurricanes on the Atlantic but not close to Britain.

GEFS - For the S, this week has plenty of rain before temps dip sharply for about 3 days from Thu 28th, with good ens agreement. Periods of rain thereafter most likely around Mon 30th, Thu 3rd and Mon 7th; mean temps a little below norm from 30th onwards but with much divergence (op & control 8C respectively above and below norm by Thu 10th). In the N, less rain now and also around Mon 7th; the cool period starts almost immediately but finishes just as abruptly. after that, as for the south. 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+2
Ally Pally Snowman
24 September 2024 07:10:29
Looks like the Mud season is here again right on time.
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
+2
CField
24 September 2024 08:09:05
Looking beyond the current unsettled spell , signals showing a potential Oct 1978 weather spell developing. Think this winter could be our best chance for a colder than average winter since 2010.
Favourite snowstorm
Famous channel low
Dec 31st 1978
Hastings East Sussex
Foot of level snow severe drifting
Next day max temp -4 degrees Celsius
Gandalf The White
24 September 2024 08:24:08

Looking beyond the current unsettled spell , signals showing a potential Oct 1978 weather spell developing. Think this winter could be our best chance for a colder than average winter since 2010.

Originally Posted by: CField 


2010 was just after the last solar (sunspot) minimum; we’re now approaching the maximum of the current cycle.  Of course that doesn’t rule out a cold winter but it makes it less likely.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


The Beast from the East
24 September 2024 08:37:33
Storm system for Monday looking concerning. Lets hope it doesnt wind up as suggested in some models
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
+1
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
24 September 2024 10:21:07

Looks like the Mud season is here again right on time.

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Yes, the mud-free season was a very short one this time. I've got a long off road bike ride planned for this Sunday too! At least it might not rain although I'm nervous about the timing of the next depression.
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
+1
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
25 September 2024 07:26:21
WX temps as yesterday show cold air from the vicinity of Iceland slowly shifting its focus eastwards from week 1 (Britain, E France, Germany) to week 2 (Germany, Poland, Baltic States), Scandinavia and N Scotland cold/cool throughout, something milder moving from Biscay to SW England but less marked than yesterday. Rain for Europe N of the Alps and including Scandinavia in both weeks, heavy in S England in week 1, in Scandinavia week 2 where presumably much early snowfall over mountains.

GFS Op - trough setting up by tomorrow between centres both 985mb North Cape and North Sea. Brief N-lies replaced by brief HP England 1025mb at the weekend, then a series of LPs moving E-wards over/near Britain but not as stormy as shown yesterday (1005mb England Mon 30th, 1000mb Brittany Thu 30th, 980 mb Fair Isle Sat 5th) finally 1030mb HP N Sea Wed 9th, moving SE-wards but extensive enough to control British weather through to Fri 11th.

ECM - similar to GFS, the last LP on Fri5th deepening and bringing back N-lies

GEM - as GFS to Mon 30th, then that LP is deeper (985mb) and further N (Cumbria) but not followed by other LPs; pressure rises but is threatened by ex-hurricane moving  towards Brittany Sat 5th.

GEFS - Rain for the next few days in the S ushering in the cold spell already present in the N, followed by a 'dead-cat bounce' of more rain and briefly milder Mon 30th, then a long period with little ensemble agreement, mean temp near norm but with spread increasing to +/-10C either side and rain likely to occur at any time. 

Notably little agreement between and within models from early next week
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+5
AJ*
  • AJ*
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25 September 2024 10:19:11

Yes, the mud-free season was a very short one this time. I've got a long off road bike ride planned for this Sunday too! At least it might not rain although I'm nervous about the timing of the next depression.

Originally Posted by: GezM 


... as was the gardening season which started in mid-July when the evenings were aready starting to draw in, and ended in mid-September, giving two months of reliably useable weather (after a wash-out Spring and a June spent in and out dodging the intermittent rain).

It looks as though autumnal weather, of frequent rain, and occasional chilly spells is set in for the forseeable according to GEFS.
Angus; one of the Kent crew on TWO.
Tonbridge, 40m (131ft) asl
picturesareme
25 September 2024 10:41:18

... as was the gardening season which started in mid-July when the evenings were aready starting to draw in, and ended in mid-September, giving two months of reliably useable weather (after a wash-out Spring and a June spent in and out dodging the intermittent rain).

It looks as though autumnal weather, of frequent rain, and occasional chilly spells is set in for the forseeable according to GEFS.

Originally Posted by: AJ* 


June was extremely dry with plenty of sunshine. Only complaint about June was the chilly nights towards the beginning of the month. July was perfect for the farmers after a bone dry June with plenty of rain but also lots of warmth & sunshine. August was decent with plenty of heat & sunshine but some rain at times, however nothing extreme. 

+1
Tim A
25 September 2024 15:44:05
Things dried out here in August but think Spring 2023 could be the last time it was completely mud free. 
Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
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