WX charts - the cold plunge from Iceland persisting and becoming more extensive into week 2, eventually reaching down to Italy and the Balkans. Britain on the western edge of the plunge, Norway becoming extremely cold. Rain (which is likely to be snow for the Alps and mountains in Norway) for most of NW Europe in week 1, breaking up into separate areas, Baltic, Balkans and Portugal, in week 2.

GFS Op - current trough SW Britain - N Norway with attendant NE-lies shrinking NE-wards as pressure rises briefly over the weekend. New LP for Mon 30th 1000mb N England then alternating, a brief ridge of HP (Wed 2nd) and LP moving quickly E-wards (Fri 4th, 1000mb, E coast). The latter deepens over the N Sea 980mb with N-ly gales for the east coast before large HP settles over Britain 1030mb from Wed 9th.

ECM - like GFS to Wed 2nd when the HP stays put through to end of run Sat 6th, being slowly encroached on by LP sitting off W Ireland.

GEM - like GFS but LPs running further N, over N England and Scotland

GEFS - showers at first, cold to Mon 30th recovering briefly to norm with rain at that time, after which a long period with little ens agreement; mean temp a little below norm, op and control amongst the coldest ens members; less rain than shown yesterday but most likely in time around Sat 5th and least likely in area of NE Scotland.

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My goodness! Thats the first time I've seen Newcastle mentioned on ESTOFEX!! ... "Another QPF peak occurs in the Newcastle area but this is probably more a cold jet/TROWAL event"  .

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WX temps show the incursion of cold air being pushed further eat but also becoming colder. In week 1 it's directed S-wards into C Europe as far as Austria with Britain on the edge of the cold area; in week 2 something a little warmer moves into W Europe incl Britain from the W or SW but Norway, N Sweden, Finland and N Russia become extremely cold.  Scandinavia quite dry for both weeks, but the rest of W Europe wet, and in week 2 a new development on the Atlantic sees Britain and N Spain extremely wet. 

GFS Op - current trough with its N-lies swinging away E-wards, brief HP tomorrow (Sat), then LP 1000 mb running up the Channel Mon 30th before dropping SE-wards into Europe. New LP 985 mb off NW Scotland Thu 3rd, linking with that over Europe and slowly moving SE-wards to cover Britain 995mb  Mon 7th. Hurricane Isaac reaches Brittany 960mb early Fri 11th, still at least tropical storm force, and crosses Britain to be off NE England 965mb later that day - very stormy and drawing in cold air from the NW behind it, all of which promotes large LP 975mb W of Ireland Sun 13th (Isaac still detectable near S Iceland in the circulation of that large LP)

ECM - differs from GFS from Thu 3rd when pressure remains fairly high over Britain and the new LP stays in mid-N Atlantic, however by Mon 7th it has filled and moved to SW of Ireland with a weak but broad trough extending E-wards across Britain.

GEM - More like ECM but the new LP is over Scotland rather than in mid-Atlantic and stays there rather than moving S. No sign of hurricane Isaac on this side of the Atlantic

GEFS - current cool temps back to norm Tue 1st, then a little cooler but mild again by Sat 5th with fair end agreement, then mostly cool/cold until Sun 13th but with variations. Rain Mon 30th, briefly dry than again from Sat 5th, quite heavy at first but declining.

GFS is horrendous - keep your fingers crossed that it's wrong!

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I was thinking the same. Quite depressing considering we're only in early Autumn. We've had enough rain in the last few weeks to last the whole autumn and there's a whole load more on the way by the looks of things. The only silver lining is there at least appears to be the occasional ridge of high pressure leading to one or two dry days. Make the most of those I suppose!

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‘Hurricane Isaac reaches Brittany 960mb early Fri 11th, still at least tropical storm force, and crosses Britain to be off NE England 965mb later that day’
This system is not Issac - that’s already been absorbed in the Atlantic and phased with the low to the west 6th/7th.
The one you mention is another system and as you say looks to remain sub-tropical right into the Bay of Biscay. I wonder if we’ll see more of this as the SSTs warm.

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That weekend looks horrendous on the 0z GFS

Next weekend, GFS shows high pressure to our ENE just holding a deep Atlantic low to the west of the UK mainland (sorry Ireland!). But GEM has the low smashing into the UK. ECM offers an entirely different scenario, with that high to our ENE riding westwards to the north of the UK, sending the low on a more southerly trajectory over the Channel.

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Autumn shaping up to start with a very negative NAO

WX temps show as previously that a large amount of cool/cold air has flooded virtually all of Europe, bar Mediterranean and Atlantic coasts. Today's charts show this as more persistent than yesterday - for Britain only just a hint of a little warmth for the SW, but the very cold area around N Scandinavia is less extensive. Less rain for Britain than shown yesterday - week 1 some for Ireland, separately Alps and Balkans; week 2 the former area moves N to affect NW Scotland and the northern N Sea, the latter still in place.

GFS Op - mobile at first; HP today, LP Mon 30th 1005 mb crossing England , HP back again by Wed 2nd. Then for a long period the N Atlantic and British weather is only HP by default,  while the active weather is dominated by LP starting as hurricane in central S Atlantic Sun 6th moving first N-wards (and integrating with Atlantic jet) to Rockall 970mb early Wed 9th, then 950 mb E Iceland late Thu 10th, then SE-wards 970mb to N Sea off E Scotland Sat 12th bringing in N/NE-lies before drifting off to Sweden. 

ECM - like GEM below but then does produce a hurricane as in GFS above!

GEM - Differs from GFS as HP does not last after Wed 2nd; but by Sat 5th LP mid N Atlantic is linking up with LP Scandinavia and Britain is under cold NE-lies from Mon 7th with the trough lying across N England. No sign of hurricanes on this side of the Atlantic.

GEFS - temps recovering to near norm, with rain Mon 30th for England, indeed temps slightly above norm around Sun 6th with more rain about that date. Agreement between ens members then breaks down, wildly so in the north - compare hurricane dates in GFS Op, showing how difficult models find predicting how ex-hurricanes behave. Anyway, quite different from yesterday, mean temps cool but op and control staying near norm at least in England, some rain at many times but not excessive through to Mon 14th

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WX temp predictions shifting around; cold for NW Europe in week 1 with only a little mildness on Atlantic coast, then week 2 a fresh cold plunge crossing Britain on its way to N Spain all the way across to the Alps (however this wasn't shown in last night's version based on GFS 18z, with NW Europe simply cool while really Arctic conditions spread across Scandinavia). Rain well distributed over Europe in both week. only S Spain staying dry; for Britain wettest in S week 1 and in N week 2.

GFS Op - LP crossing Britain Mon 30th 1005mb followed by ridge of HP moving down from the north, being buffeted by bits of ex-hurricane on the Atlantic until Fri 4th when the jet and the moisture from the hurricanes get their act together and generate LP Faeroes, at its deepest 975mb Sun 6th projecting troughs and N-lies S-wards across Britain. Eventually this fills and moves to the  east, then another brief ridge of HP Thu 10th before the next hurricane-sponsored trough arrives 985mb W Britain Sun 13th moving SE and heading for Holland.

ECM - like GFS until Fri 4th when the combined LP  heads for central Britain, not the Faeroes, off SW Ireland on Sun 6th and by Wed 9th 990mb Irish Sea. Deep hurricane to SW at this time with nothing to stop it heading for Britain (compare GFS above Sun 13th)

GEM - closer to ECM but the LP over Britain from Sun 6th has linked to another near N Norway with stronger and colder N-lies. Atlantic hurricanes weaker and well distant to SW.

GEFS - rain tomorrow (Mon 30th) esp heavy in S, then dry to Sat 5th after which wet for a couple of days and rain on and off thereafter to Tue 15th; temps near maybe even above norm to the 5th with quite good ens agreement then more of a spread with mean temp on the cold side (2-3C below norm) but both op and control at times much colder (10-12C below!). Inverness showing at least one run with snow every day from 6th onwards.

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Not sure I can ever remember model output like this so early in the autumn before with such cool and unsettled weather forecast so early in the autumn.

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Interesting. Might not mean much in terms of what happens at the back end of the autumn as we approach winter, but we shall see.

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WX temp charts maintain a cold outlook for Europe but the focus changes day by day. This morning, for week 1, not far from normal for most of NW Europe though this will be perceived as cool by comparison with recent autumns; Britain mildest in the far SW and a colder pool developed over Austria. In week 2 not much change for most of Europe; but N Scotland cooler and the large area of freezing weather from Norway across the N Baltic to Russia reappears after being absent from the forecast for a couple of days. In week 1, rain in N Atlantic and in SE Europe; in week 2 the former intensifies affecting all western coasts, inland towards the Alps, and especially heavy for Spain and W France (uncomfortably close to S England).

GFS Op - current LP moving away E-wards, followed by ridge of HP from the north which just about hangs on until the weekend. Trough near NW Scotland is present for Mon 7th and slowly sinks S-wards to Brittany Thu 10th, central pressure ca 1000mb and close enough to keep pressure over Britain low, nearest significant HP is Greenland. Then an ex-hurricane moves in 975mb Biscay Sat 12th and moves to Holland 985mb Mon 14th and so onwards, with gales from NE (but yesterday's 18z chart showed HP over England on Sun 13th!)

ECM - like GFS until about Wed 9th when the trough instead of trundlling S-wards changes directions and crosses N England. In the last chart of the series Thu 10th the hurricane is there but not making much progress E-wards.

GEM - trough from Mon 7th links to LP N Norway and brings in some very cold and strong NE-lies for a couple of days; but the hurricane is shown as moving N in mid-Atlantic

GEFS - just on the cool side at first, becoming mild Sun 6th after which ens agreement breaks down but majority of runs are cool so mean is 3 C or so below norm. Op run milder than this at first, colder later. Dry after today to about Sun 6th then generally modest but frequent amounts of rain, heavier in the N esp soon after 6th, a few spikes appearing randomly in the S.

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Interesting running the GEFS 0z 850Hpa chart from 0 to 384 hours this morning. You can see the cold air amassing across the whole of northern Europe and looking for a route further south. That ex-hurricane gives it an opportunity to do so. 

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Anything to remove this most boring wet weather and those are so boring to me, high totals doesnt excite me from 24 hours rain days, i rather have USA or Cyprus storms that gave same amount and excitement with lot of sun in between.   If more cold air amassing up there hope that bring more prolonged dry periods over the winter months for a drier sunnier 2025 year ahead. So lot of cold air around keep us more dryer side than wet side.

Also the tail end of the GFS 00z run is reminiscent of that fateful night in mid-October '87, it even fits in the same time frame. Of course that is one run at FI, but I can't help thinking that at this time of year any surge of cold air running onto warm tropical air still present at the mid-latitudes will only serve to fuel cyclogenesis.

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WX temps have retracted their forecast of yesterday of extensive freezing conditions across the far north of Europe, now back to normal for the time of year. For both of the next two weeks, continental Europe remains unseasonably cool even cold around the E Alps; milder for the western coasts incl SW Britain, perhaps a little colder in N Scotland week 2. Rainfall pattern also changed -  areas in week 1 Atlantic down through France to Balkans mostly missing Britain; week 2 Portugal through Channel to Scandinavia.

GFS Op - current LP moving rather slowly SE-wards into Europe and filling while ridge of HP extends from the N. From Sun 6th to Wed 9th this is displaced by LP off W Britain with troughs sometimes extending E-wards, mostly over Scotland. Then an ex-hurricane steams up from the SW but stalls and heads for Biscay, however with trough N-wards linking with N Atlantic circulation, well developed by Sun 13th. The whole complex heads off for Norway and between that and large HP W of Ireland Britain is under NW-lies for most of the following week.

ECM - as GFS to Thu 10th when the ex-hurricane stalls even further off in mid Atlantic, just a small fragment breaking off and appearing as a minor feature over NW Ireland (but yesterday's chart looked like GEM in this respect)

GEM - like GFS until Thu 10th when the ex-hurricane doesn't stall but is placed over Fastnet 960mb, and then runs rapidly N-wards to the Hebrides, only filling slightly.

GEFS - cool at first, becoming briefly mild S 6th when rain starts up again. Good agreement between ens members to the 6th, and also on frequent rain from then to Thu 17th, but wide variation in temps, generally cold and op & control dramatically so around 15th (8-9 C below), a little drier in the north at that time.

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Heavy Rain still at 08.30hrs.

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GFS 06z has ex Hurricane hitting us. I think it will be Kirk

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Any chance for zonaltiy that had been absent this year? They deliver nice summers and reasonable sunshine and HP proper days in between in LP that move fast.  This current slack dangerous low refusing to move away brought 3 very unwelcome rains. Zonal fast low bring rains few hours never reach 24hrs.

The idea of the residual of Kirk affecting the UK around the 12th Oct has been muted on and off for a while. It is no secret that the mid-Atlantic remains anonymously warm by around 3deg above norm this year and any tropical system will likely maintain it’s characteristics for longer before it transitions to a more typical low system on track. Also into the mix is the forecast that Kirk will be a major hurricane for many days in open ocean as it moves ENE.
Fascinating for sure to see how this develops and at this stage I’d say a 10% risk of something high-end developing from it.

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Zonality has indeed been largely absent with the synoptics generally reflecting the general circulation pattern in the North Atlantic of the 1960's to 1980's.
Because of this and if this continues, what might we expect in terms of temperatures and snowfall?

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Sod's law would say a switch to strongly zonal conditions from late October all the way through to March.

Even last winter, which had a generally southerly tracking jet, managed to end up way above average.

Talking of which, the MetO's latest contingency planners' forecast is here. They've not updated the main page on their site, but a bit of URL fiddling gave it away! For OND there's a 10% chance of cold, 55% of normal and 35% of a mild 3 months. It's worth noting that none of the last 10 years have had a cold OND period via their methodology.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/3moutlook_ond_v1.pdf 

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P25 of the GFS ends with widespread snow showers across the UK.
https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2024100106/gens-25-0-384.png 

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WX temp charts show cool conditions or the next two weeks down through Britain to cold over the Alps; over this period some mildness manages to hang on in the far W of Europe but further east (Romania, Poland) it warms up somewhat. N Norway freezing but not unusual for this time. In week 1, wet for western coasts of Europe and across S France to the Alps; in week 2 the wettest areas lie N-S from Denmark & N Sea to Sardinia.

GFS Op - through to Mon 7th there's an area of LP off W Ireland and HP just about hanging on in the N Sea with often strong S-lies for Britain. The LP then swivels as a trough to Norway and combines with an ex-hurricane (?Kirk) for an extremely stormy period, its centre traversing England from 960mb Brittany Thu 10th to 965mb E Anglia Fri 11th (this feature is now forecast to arrive a day or so earlier than was the case yesterday). It moves rapidly to Sweden and for the week following HP is never far from N Scotland while a collection of shallow LPs process across England and occasionally as far N as S Scotland.

ECM - similar to GFS but brings in the ex-hurricane further north and not quite as stormy (970mb Clyde Fri 11th) but is then slower to move it on, filling but still close at 980mb Wales Sat 12th with N-lies setting in.

GEM - treats the ex-hurricane differently again, running it into N Portugal 985 mb Thu 10th where it fills while pressure rises slowly over Britain as the trough off W Ireland moves slowly N-wards

GEFS - cool and dry at first, then temp close to norm or a little above from Sun 6th with rain setting in. Then rather cool from Sat 12th, , but without much ens agreement, the colder outliers at first becoming mainstream, briefly drier in the S for that weekend. 

Hurricanes upset models by creating their own weather!

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Lets hope GFS 00z op is wrong. Full on strike from ex Kirk

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