I've noticed that in recent GFS runs, the above mentioned latest being a direct strike on Kent a la Oct '87. Other models are showing a variation on a theme/toned down set up, so while there are some leg room for changes it seems a spell of even more wet, unsettled and very windy conditions are on the cards for later next week - as if we haven't had enough of that lately and we're only barely into October. So much for poor Summers tending to lead to warm settled Autumns, then. 

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6z GFS looks even worse - direct hit from Kirk with a sub 950mb low.
Unlikely to happen as forecast but definitely one to watch.

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Is the 06z out yet? Im still getting the 00z on Meteociel

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Annoyingly, the 6z has it around 200 miles further north, so the worst winds (force 11? 12?) would hit North Wales, NW England, NI and Western Scotland. I preferred the 0z solution!!




https://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/web/en/2024/10/02/basis06/euro/prec/24101012_0206.gif 

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WX temp charts - cool weather continues for Britain and the rest of NW Europe for the next two weeks, broadening out to cover everywhere from N Spain to Poland and with freezing conditions more extensive over Norway in week 2. Rain widespread over this area in both weeks, heaviest on Atlantic coasts and the Adriatic in week 1, then for N Italy week 2.

The main interest in the models is the location of ex-hurricane Kirk in a week's time. There is now a dedicated ('Severe weather')thread for this; what follows here is a more general review.

GFS Op - quiet weather through to Mon 8th with S-lies for Britain between HP to the east and LP to the west. The LP wins out and moves in before the arrival of ex-hurricane Kirk 970mb Cornwall Fri 11th rapidly moving through to 985mb Oslo by Sat 12th with a burst of N-lies behind it. Pressure rises strongly behind 1040mb Scotland Wed 16th, but this HP cell moves SW-wards with winds going round to points between N & E.

ECM - similar to GFS but ex-Kirk arrives a day earlier, still on the same track, but 970mb E Anglia Thu 10th and the HP following is situated further S, 1030mb S England Sun 13th.

GEM - close to ECM with additional feature that ex-Kirk is slower-moving, taking from Wed 9th to Fri 11th to cross from Cornwall to Dogger 

GEFS - temps rising and staying close to norm through to Fri 11th, then sharply cooler esp in England for a few days before uncertainly recovering. Very wet Mon 7th - Fri 11th, then less rain but by no means dry.

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Charts relating to next Thursday moved to the severe weather thread

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WX temps: for both the next two weeks, cool weather (though still just above norm) blowing in from the NW to affect NW Europe and Scandinavia. Something a little warmer appearing over Biscay & Spain in week 2, no sign of any effect from next week's forecast storm. Rain widespread in Europe week1, wettest for Ireland and the Alps; in week 2 withdrawing to N Atlantic coasts, England and France becoming dry.

GFS Op - for a few days LP is off W Ireland but as continental HP withdraws, the LP moves across Britain 995mb Tue 8th and then N-wards. Ex-hurricane Kirk arrives Thu 10th 965mb Pembroke, filling more rapidly and taking a more S-ly track than yesterday to Dover 990mb early Sat 12th but linking with the original LP to bring in N-lies. The whole complex clears rapidly to Norway by Sunday with HP 1030mb S England. Then a new Atlantic Storm (?ex-hurricane Leslie?) appears in mid-Atlantic. This time however HP hangs on and the storm swings past N Scotland and then down into the Baltic with less effect on Britain. Pressure rises after this storm passes reaching the remarkably high value of 1040mb Fri 18th E Anglia.

ECM - similar to GFS but on an accelerated timetable, with Kirk arriving a day earlier, and less deep at at 975mb. No sign of ex-Leslie on the Atlantic

GEM - pressure distribution similar to GFS but allows ex-Kirk to fill on the Atlantic so that it arrives as a 'normal' depression 990mb Belgium Sat 12th

GEFS - temps near norm to Fri 11th, then a sharp dip (6 or 7C below norm) to Tue 15th before resuming norm with a few outliers. A lot of rain Mon 7th to Sat 12th, rather less after that but still present in some runs esp in the north ( op & control amongst the driest)

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So chilly but not the massive "white wall of snow" and temps of -10C to cover the whole Country then. The mirror has got the nutter Jim Dale out early this year. 😂

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/weather/topstories/uk-weather-temperatures-plunge-to-10c-as-britain-faces-coldest-freeze-in-europe/ar-AA1rFNTU? 

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Still long range signals to a 2nd half of October settle down . Anxiously keeping an eye to the South West hoping that old foe heights to the South West doesn't emerge .

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Most of us would be happy, I think, with heights to the south in October and even into November.

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WX chart: not much change in temps for the next two weeks across Britain and N Europe, all just a bit above average. Any warmth is near Spain and the Black Sea; colder but not unseasonably so in far N. Rain for Atlantic coasts, extending further inland to France and Spain in week 1. The dry area for England shown yesterday is now simply damp.

GFS Op: LP to the west and HP to the east keep a S-ly flow going until Tue 8th when the LP moves to S Ireland and tangles with the incoming ex-hurricane Kirk. This all runs up the Channel 965mb Wight late Wed 9th and scoots through to Denmark by Thu 10th with N-lies behind it. The weather then reverts to standard zonal fare with alternating HP (Sun 13th, Thu 17th)  and LP (Tue 15th, Mon 21st), the HP always more prominent in the S and conversely the LP in the N. 

Jetstream fortunately weak around Wed & Thu so not an enhancing factor for ex-Kirk. There are however intermittent strong streaks matching the LPs above after Mon 14th

ECM: similar to GFS except (and an important difference in local weather for England) ex-Kirk runs across N France, filling to reach the Ardennes in SE Belgium 985mb early Thu 10th.

GEM: Pressure pattern similar to GFS but ex-Kirk is almost dead on its feet by Wed 9th and can only produce 990mb Biscay then, and disappears into the general circulation by Thu.

GEFS: temps normal at first but dip sharply Thu 10th - Mon 14th to 5 or 6C below norm (snow row figures for Inverness into double figures for a few days); then mean resumes near norm through to Mon 21st but agreement between ens members has been totally lost after 14th. Spectacularly heavy rain for the south Thu 10th (30-50mm), certainly some for a day or so before and after, otherwise small amounts at random intervals. Thursday's spike of rain decreases N-wards, typically 10-20mm in Scotland, but more rain expected there around Tue 15th.

Sorry for late posting - early morning flu jab!

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WX temps continue the seasonal cooling and extend it to the whole of Europe, Atlantic coasts a little below norm, the rest a little above. Rain in week 1 general, heaviest for countries in the W of Europe incl Britain, this shifting S-wards to France and Italy in week 2 and becoming dry around the N Sea and Baltic.

GFS Op - current LP near Ireland slowly moves across Britain and joins forces with ex-hurricane Kirk (now forecast to make landfall in S Biscay) to generate trough Thu 10th from Svalbard to Denmark with Britain under cold N-lies. This disappears to the NE and Britain alternates between influences from  HP (1025mb Sun 13th, N France) and LP (975mb Wed 16th Rockall) before large HP cell settles 1035mb S Norway Fri 18th , settled for Scotland, breezy E-lies for S England lasting to Tue 22nd when there are signs of a breakdown from the north.

ECM - similar to GFS though ex-Kirk is closer (975mb Thu 10th Belgium with NE gales for Dover) and the resulting trough takes a day longer to move away.

GEM - like ECM to start with; after Sun 13th picks up the HP from GFS and extends it as a ridge from Norway until at least Wed 16th holding off the Atlantic LP shown in GFS

GEFS - temp profile as yesterday with cold spell (down to 10C below norm) fortunately brief Fri 11th - Mon 14th, otherwise temps near norm, moderately good agreement from ens members even as far as Tue 22nd.  Yesterday's excesses of rain in the S have been scaled back; all runs wet around Wed 10th but mostly now below 15mm in the south, less in north; dry for the weekend, some rain in some runs from Wed 16th onwards (but dry in op & control). Peak snow row 19/33 at Inverness Wed 10th.

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WX charts show temps across Europe about normal for the time of year, Britain just on the cool side in week 1. In week 2, milder weather from the SW approaches Britain but conversely rather cooler weather comes in from the NE reaching the Polish border W-wards, even down to Turkey S-wards. Rain for Atlantic coastal countries in week 1, Britain escaping the worst; then in week 2  heavy for W Scotland, Western Med and Caucasus, not entirely dry elsewhere except Austria.

GFS Op - LP off W Ireland filling and dropping SE to C England by Wed 9th, steering ex-Kirk across C France 985mb by Thu. Then both combine into a trough  lying down the N  Sea with N-ly blast for Britain persisting over Scotland with LP nearby  to Sun 13th while pressure rises over England.  For the following week, LP approaches Ireland from the west while the pressure rise continues, by then over Norway with strong S/SW-lies for Britain, After Sun 20th, back to standard zonal fare with LP near N Scotland and HP over France. 

ECM like GFS but brings ex-Kirk  further N, Belgium rather than Luxembourg with NE gales for Straits of Dover on Thu 11th. The it diverges on Thu 17th with the LP off W Ireland moving across Britain (GFS keeps it static)

GEM - by comparison with GFS, ex-Kirk is a weaker feature. The Hp is slower to establish, nit really until Mon 14th but then settles over Britain, not Norway.

GEFS - cold Thu 11th - Mon 14th otherwise temps near norm (above in Scotland around 17th) all with quite good ens agreement. Rain esp in S around Wed 10th, ony one or two runs showing large amounts, then dry to about Tue 15th, intermittent mostly small amounts of rain after.

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WX charts for week 1 show most of western Europe a little above norm, with anything above that well to the SE, and Britain and Norway the only cooler areas. This switches round in week 2 with much milder weather spreading north across France and reaching Britain while cooler weather pushes S-wards in the east, even reaching Turkey. Rain quite general for W Europe in week 1, though Britain is one of the drier parts; in week 2 a switch to very dry weather for a large area of C Europe, Britain on the edge of this as Atlantic coasts from Norway to Morocco continue damp.

GFS Op - current LP plus ex-Kirk (which has run across C France) combine by Thu 10th to form a trough extending all the way down the N Sea with brief but strong N-lies for Britain. Pressure rises in the S for the weekend though a new LP 995mb affects  Scotland before the HP settles over Denmark 1025mb Tue 15th which with LP S of Iceland gives Britain mild S-lies until Sat 19th (small disturbances in the flow affect the SW). Then a deep depression SE Iceland sets W-lies in operation and although HP hangs on in the S, by Thu 24th this has moved W-ward with cool NW-lies affecting Britain and most of NW Europe.

ECM - keeps pressure lower near Britain, first on Sat 12th with LP Biscay, and the subsequent rise in pressure is dented by a trough breaking off from the LP S of Iceland and crossing Britain Thu 17th interrupting the S-lies which resume later.

GEFS - rain around tomorrow and Thu, amount progressively less than previous forecasts, dry to Tue 15th then always present in moderate amounts in some but not all runs, most likely around Thu 17th esp in SW. Cold temps Thu 10th - Tue 14th, then a degree or three above norm through to Thu 24th with quite good ens agreement. 

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This web site really has seen better days. 🤣

While I'm here, might as well add my two pennies worth. I'm somewhat encouraged by what does look like a temporary warm-up by next week once we get this current unsettled muck out of the way. Possible Summer's final fling? Something to look forward to before Autumn proper really does kick in. 

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looks like the Thur Fri ‘cold plunge’ has been tempered back to an ‘average’ 12dc for us in Scotland the daytime single digits long gone.   What is it Nigel Farage says  ? ‘boring, boring, boring’

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The BBC has a max of 8°C here on Thursday.

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It does feel like we need some fresh faces on this site. So many people seemed to have left. I guess forums are not trendy now? 

I do expect traffic and input to increase once we get the first real signs of wintry weather in the models

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I think you must be right there - I had a look on NetWeather, they've had 3 posts today in their main model output thread. UKWW has had 5, all from one poster.

(20 minutes later I'm still trying to check usw - seems the posters from there moved to
https://groups.google.com/g/weatherandclimate  once Google dropped Usenet!)

EDIT: Finally managed to get onto usw, and that was a right palaver - my news provider has dropped it, so had to find a new server, then find some software - eventually settling on the old Microsoft stuff which is no longer available. Was it worth it? Hmm...

https://ukwct.org.uk/weather/usw.jpg 


I guess it's all on Facebook or Twitter these days - can't imagine Instagram or Tiktok would be much use for discussions!

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The forums used to be full, especially the science and climate section which was full of vibrant debate. Unfortunately, it was over modded in my opinion, it became a bit of a nonentity and now does not even exist.

WX temp charts week 1 show most of Europe near seasonal norm, Britain and Norway a little cooler, Romania and Greece a little warmer. I  week 2 becoming milder in the west including Britain compensated by a much larger  and very cold area appearing in E Russia. Rain in week 1 general for W Europe though Britain escapes the worst; in week 2 dry or very dry for all of Europe except Italy. 

GFS Op - current LP and ex-Kirk combining to form trough on Thu 10th 985mb widely from Belgium to N Norway and brief burst of Nlies for Britain. Pressure rises uncertainly (shallow LPs hanging around N Scotland and Portugal) but 1025mb Britain Sun 13th, the HP moving to Denmark leaving Britain in strong S-lies between it and LP S of Iceland through to Mon 21st, with minor hiccup as trough fizzles out over Britain Wed 16th. Then firmly established HP over N Sea 1035mb to Fri 25th.

ECM - like GFS until Wed 16th when the HP retreats SE-wards and the trough doesn't fizzle but instead LP approaches from the Atlantic with a secondary 990mb near SW Ireland and (moist?) SW-lies for Britain

GEM - The HP after Sun 13th never really gets established, LPs 980mb Thu 17th and Sat 19th affecting most of Britain with any HP over France ca 1025mb 

GEFS - cold but dry to Tue 15th, temp recovering and becoming mild for a while though slowly dropping back to norm (op run stays mild, even warm). Small amounts of rain in several runs from Thu 17th onwards (more likely in SW) but dry in op and control. Some rain in the far N now and Sun 13th, snow likely in the Highlands at these times. 

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I'm sad to read that, R'ski. As a non-expert I enjoy seeing what folks have to say here as this is the raison d'être of the forum. I find it useful. Posters do have a wide range of interests and views that they like to discuss elsewhere. Some infuriating, I grant you. I enjoy that too, mostly!

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There's also a clue in the thread title. When the forum started the NWP models were new to most of us and there was a lack of understanding about their capabilities and limitations. Over time we learned that when looking more than a few days ahead things quickly became uncertain and the predictions unreliable. Obviously that was particularly clear in the winter months. There was then a widespread perception that national forecasting agencies (e.g. UK Met) had access to oodles more "secret" data which automatically put them in the box seat. When much of that became available publicly available (e.g. MOGREPS, Arome) it quickly became clear that there wasn't that much advantage to be derived.  

Therefore, I think unless people fall for "snake oil" posts there isn't that much which can be posted that adds value to anyone who has some basic knowledge, which is most forum members. I'd say exceptions are DEW's daily summary because it gives an "at a glance" view and Darren's ensemble watch posts because they also offer something tangible which can be quickly understood.

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Agreed, I always pop in to read DEW's summary, but that is it, I can look at the charts myself if I want to check something.

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FWIW, the Met Office still have a few tricks up their sleeve that aren't available to us mere mortals. The new model that drives their automated short-range, for one, but also tools like DECIDER (which summarise all the models) and of course the Chief Forecaster's discussion, which is what drives the text forecasts on their site - but we don't get to see the original.

In fact, looking on the usw archives, there used to be a whole suite of stuff that we didn't get to see - and I don't mean models, I mean the value-added discussion which drives the media forecasts! Martin Rowley - who worked at the MetO, IIRC - posted this some 24 years ago, and I'd bet they still have similar products available internally.

In effect, unaware of all the extent of all this, we've over the years been replicating what the Met Office does themselves! The main difference is that whereas the MetO stuck with very old-fashioned, but proven methods, you tend to see more, shall we say, experimental methods pushed to the fore on forums - think of the teleconnections crowd on NW, for example.

It'd be interesting to see what the modern equivalent of the below would be, but I suspect we'll never know for sure!

The bulletins are:- (D=main synoptic hours e.g. i.e. 00, 06, 12 & 18
GMT)

==================================
AXXX01 EGRR
MODEL ASSESSMENT AND EMPHASIS
(Issued around D+3)
1. DISCUSSION OF PRELIMINARY GLOBAL MODEL OUTPUT (sub-divided as
follows:)
A. PRESSURE PATTERN. Comments on whether the Prelim. Global model has
captured the main features correctly at T+0 and T+3 and what the Chief
thinks of the forecast sequence.
B. INTERPRETATION OF MODEL FRONTS AND PRECIPITATION OUTPUT. Fairly self-
explanatory, with comments on coupling of fronts to theta-W isopleths,
whether the model has enough (or too much) rain, snow etc.

2. HEADLINE SUMMARY: (the equivalent, albeit in much shortened form, of
the old SR Part 1)

3. CHANGES IN EMPHASIS FROM PREVIOUSLY ISSUED GUIDANCE: self explanatory
==================================
AXXX02 EGRR
HAZARDS AND UNCERTAINTIES
(Issued around D+3.5)
1. WARNINGS:
A. EARLY WARNINGS
(Major threat of disruption etc.)
B. WEATHER WATCH
(Lesser risk of disruption, but the situation needs watching)
C. OTHER HAZARDS:
SNOW/THAW:
FROST:
ICY ROADS:
FOG:
STRONG WINDS:
HEAVY RAIN:
LIGHTNING RISK:

2. DISCUSSION OF CONFIDENCE. Self-explanatory.

3. MOS TEMPERATURES. Comments as to whether the MOS (Model Output
Statistics) data are in touch with reality or not.

4. PERCENTAGE PROBABILITY FORECASTS. (For selected stations across the
UK, for both temperature and precipitation. A matrix of stations.)
==================================
AXXX03 EGRR
SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION
(Issued around D+4)

1. AMENDS TO EARLIER GUIDANCE.

2. DISCUSSION.
This bulletin is the closest thing to the old SR Part 2 and contains all
the buzz-phrases like relaxing troughs, trough disruption, vertical
partitioning, WV analysis etc.
==================================
AXXX08 EGRR
PRELIMINARY MEDIUM-RANGE ASSESSMENT
(Issued around D+5; using main Global runs 00, 12 GMT data)
This bulletin is designed to give the outfield a first sight of thoughts
on the new Global Model sequence, before the main Extended Range
guidance is issued by the Deputy Chief Forecaster about D+7 (for days 2
and 3) and D+11 (for days 4 and 5). It is usually fairly short and flags
major changes from previous guidance.
==================================
AXXX05 EGRR
National Media Script Issued by NCPU
(Issued around D+4/4.5)
The National Media Script is supposed to be a 'rip and read' media
orientated script based on the guidance above. Although the bulletins
are not issued externally, its components can be found as part of the
scripts on the Met.Office and BBC web sites, plus some BBC CEEFAX
output.
==================================

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