theweatheroutlook

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tallyho_83
07 October 2024 22:51:23

Strongest Atlantic hurricane had 190mph sustained winds, and numerous others have had 180/85mph winds.

I think Milton isgoing to at least rival hurricane Allen's 190mph, and potentially exceed it setting a new record.

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


Yeah - well only a few days ago it was forecast to strengthen to a mere cat 3 or maybe 4 and look where we are at now?! Max sustained wind  of 180mph and there is more strengthening on it's way.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/072058.shtml? 
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Gandalf The White
07 October 2024 23:08:35
NBC website covering the Milton story
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather/live-blog/hurricane-milton-live-updates-rcna174253 
Not sure I’ve ever seen a forecaster almost in tears; he’s stunned by the rate at which Milton is intensifying. Note that he doesn’t shy away from referring to global warming as the reason for the record ocean heat which has been fuelling these rapid developments.

The storm surge looks pretty dangerous again.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


tallyho_83
07 October 2024 23:15:05

Yeah - well only a few days ago it was forecast to strengthen to a mere cat 3 or maybe 4 and look where we are at now?! Max sustained wind  of 180mph and there is more strengthening on it's way.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/072058.shtml? 

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


Interesting - thanks for sharing! above.

This is the latest so far - apparently the central pressure of Milton is now down to 905mb

https://youtu.be/2wcx0DBU5lI?si=HKqqy5gO2n1lyPCN 

What is also very bizarre is how Milton is going from west to east in the Gulf - usually it goes from east to west or south to north etc!?
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


tallyho_83
08 October 2024 01:28:55
Latest on Milton as of 8PM ET time - Milton now has a centre of a low pressure system measuring 897mb:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XFiY5yq5sbU 
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


The Beast from the East
08 October 2024 02:47:36

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
08 October 2024 07:20:31


What is also very bizarre is how Milton is going from west to east in the Gulf - usually it goes from east to west or south to north etc!?

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


Milton’s expected track from the western Gulf to the west coast of Florida is unprecedented in living memory. In data going back to 1851, only three hurricanes – all of them prior to 1900 – moved from the vicinity of the Bay of Campeche to make landfall in western Florida. Unlike the more common approach from the south-southwest, Milton’s approach from the west-southwest is giving Milton much more time than usual to evolve over the Gulf before landfall.

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2024/10/category-5-milton-poses-an-exceptionally-serious-threat-to-floridas-west-coast/ 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Hungry Tiger
08 October 2024 09:57:45

Latest on Milton as of 8PM ET time - Milton now has a centre of a low pressure system measuring 897mb:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XFiY5yq5sbU 

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


Incredible.  Scary as well.   😞 
Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


tallyho_83
08 October 2024 10:05:16
It's weakened to 150mph winds so down to a cat 4 now which was not in forecast by any model or meteorologist.  It was forecast to strengthen not weaken. Good news for West coast of florida.
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


idj20
08 October 2024 10:20:35

Latest on Milton as of 8PM ET time - Milton now has a centre of a low pressure system measuring 897mb:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XFiY5yq5sbU 

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


That's almost like the 850 hpas being dragged down to almost sea level. 
Folkestone Harbour. 
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
08 October 2024 10:24:37

It's weakened to 150mph winds so down to a cat 4 now which was not in forecast by any model or meteorologist.  It was forecast to strengthen not weaken. Good news for West coast of florida.

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


The link I posted earlier forecast this weakening as part of an Eyewall Replacement Cycle.

Good news in terms of the strength of the wind, bad news in terms of the storm surge as it means that hurricane-force winds will now extend over a larger area (the eye was only a few miles across) and enhance the surge.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+1
Quantum
08 October 2024 10:46:43

The link I posted earlier forecast this weakening as part of an Eyewall Replacement Cycle.

Good news in terms of the strength of the wind, bad news in terms of the storm surge as it means that hurricane-force winds will now extend over a larger area (the eye was only a few miles across) and enhance the surge.

Originally Posted by: DEW 


I don't think it was an ERC that caused the weakening; doesn't look like one from the satellite imagery or microwave data.
If I had to guess the mountainous terrain to the south disrupted an inflow layer and caused the inner core to degrade. Its a little suprising since the land is relatively far away from the centre of the storm; but these things are not always obvious. There was also a little island near the eye; its possible the inner core was so tightly bound that the island messed it up.

But I don't think it was an ERC; no big spiral bands prior.
Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Gandalf The White
08 October 2024 12:02:37

It's weakened to 150mph winds so down to a cat 4 now which was not in forecast by any model or meteorologist.  It was forecast to strengthen not weaken. Good news for West coast of florida.

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


That’s not correct, the commentary referred to signs of an eye wall replacement cycle, which has the effect of weakening the hurricane - but expanding the area of the storm.  Once the eye wall replacement has completed then it’s normal for a hurricane to strengthen again, if conditions are favourable; but in this case increased winds shear and ingress of drier air is likely to inhibit further strong development as it approaches the west coast of Florida.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


+1
Gandalf The White
08 October 2024 12:05:11

I don't think it was an ERC that caused the weakening; doesn't look like one from the satellite imagery or microwave data.
If I had to guess the mountainous terrain to the south disrupted an inflow layer and caused the inner core to degrade. Its a little suprising since the land is relatively far away from the centre of the storm; but these things are not always obvious. There was also a little island near the eye; its possible the inner core was so tightly bound that the island messed it up.

But I don't think it was an ERC; no big spiral bands prior.

Originally Posted by: Quantum 


From the 4am CDT NHS update:

“The structure of Milton has changed significantly overnight.  The
pinhole eye seen yesterday has filled and earlier aircraft data
showed a double eyewall structure.  More recent microwave images
show only one larger eyewall, and it is clear that Milton is
completing an eyewall replacement cycle.  These eyewall replacement
cycles are common in strong hurricanes and often cause the peak
winds to fluctuate, while the wind field generally expands. ”
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


+1
Quantum
08 October 2024 12:16:41

From the 4am CDT NHS update:

“The structure of Milton has changed significantly overnight.  The
pinhole eye seen yesterday has filled and earlier aircraft data
showed a double eyewall structure.  More recent microwave images
show only one larger eyewall, and it is clear that Milton is
completing an eyewall replacement cycle.  These eyewall replacement
cycles are common in strong hurricanes and often cause the peak
winds to fluctuate, while the wind field generally expands. ”

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


I disagree with them. The earlier double eyewall structure could have led to an ERC but it did not, and those outer rainbands fizzled. The inner core became disrupted quite suddenly and it appeared to be unrelated to that convection which had already severely weakened by that point. I'm still thinking land interaction not ERC.
Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Gandalf The White
08 October 2024 12:25:51

I disagree with them. The earlier double eyewall structure could have led to an ERC but it did not, and those outer rainbands fizzled. The inner core became disrupted quite suddenly and it appeared to be unrelated to that convection which had already severely weakened by that point. I'm still thinking land interaction not ERC.

Originally Posted by: Quantum 


You disagree with the experts on the subject?  Gosh
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Quantum
08 October 2024 12:29:31

You disagree with the experts on the subject?  Gosh

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


I am technically an expert on this subject if it matters.

I am allowed to disagree.

But even if I wasn't an expert in the traditional academic sense, that doesn't mean you aren't allowed to have opinions if you are informed enough about the subject matter. Anyone who has read enough papers on the subject can have an opinion.
Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
+1
Gandalf The White
08 October 2024 12:29:43
Also worth noting that Milton is predicted to still be a hurricane even after crossing Florida for about 10 hours. I guess the speed at which it is predicted to move will mitigate the normal weakening over land.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gandalf The White
08 October 2024 12:30:46

I am technically an expert on this subject if it matters.

I am allowed to disagree.

Originally Posted by: Quantum 


I’m not saying you can’t disagree, I’m just expressing surprise that you think you know better than the guys who have access to all the data and have the greater knowledge and experience.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Quantum
08 October 2024 12:32:56

I’m not saying you can’t disagree, I’m just expressing surprise that you think you know better than the guys who have access to all the data and have the greater knowledge and experience.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Well my doctorate was in a subject not a million miles away from this subject. But that's not the point. I'm not saying I know better, I might be wrong, I have enough expertise to have a different opinion about this subject while not invalidating anyones knowledge and experience. To me this doesn't look like an ERC. I'm sure papers will be written on this subject in a couple of years, so perhaps I will change my mind. But to me it looks like land interaction of some kind.


The points against it is that:

- the double eyewall structure became *less* prominent not more. If this was an ERC you'd expect the outer rainbands to get stronger and more symmetrical; the opposite happened.
- the weakening was very rapid; I'd expect something a bit more gradual with an ERC
- not a huge amount of evidence of a wind field expansion which would be expected with an ERC

But what I do think is that a pinhole eye structure means a very small tightly bound inner core. I don't think it would take much to disrupt it. The little island could be enough; or perhaps Yucatan cut off an inflow layer. It doesn't look to me that the eyewall has been replaced by any outer convective structure; but that something has disrupted it.
Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Hungry Tiger
08 October 2024 18:33:39
What is the prognosis for Florida.  🙂 
Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


doctormog
08 October 2024 18:35:51

What is the prognosis for Florida.  🙂 

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 


https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?start#contents  
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Chunky Pea
08 October 2024 19:13:04
Eric Snodgrass gave a run down for the potential impacts for Tampa earlier. If the eye tracks south, it'll keep the worst of any surge at bay; if it tracks a bit further north, it'll be a disaster. I think he mentioned that the central pressure of the storm went below 900 hPa at one stage, but I could have picked that up wrong. 
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Quantum
08 October 2024 19:17:09

Eric Snodgrass gave a run down for the potential impacts for Tampa earlier. If the eye tracks south, it'll keep the worst of any surge at bay; if it tracks a bit further north, it'll be a disaster. I think he mentioned that the central pressure of the storm went below 900 hPa at one stage, but I could have picked that up wrong. 

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 


Briefly down to 897 hPa. Its intensifying again now, the eye has cleared out and the presentation is improving.
Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
+1
Quantum
08 October 2024 20:08:48
OK its clearly intensifying rapidly again. Raw ADT latest is T7.6 corresponding to a MSLP of 906mb and a wind speed of 178mph. Basically its a cat5 again without much doubt and its trying to beat its previous intensity.
Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
The Beast from the East
09 October 2024 00:47:48

OK its clearly intensifying rapidly again. Raw ADT latest is T7.6 corresponding to a MSLP of 906mb and a wind speed of 178mph. Basically its a cat5 again without much doubt and its trying to beat its previous intensity.

Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Perhaps only a few hours left before the vertical sheer kicks in and it weakens again, but the storm surge and flooding is baked in for large areas  regardless
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
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