theweatheroutlook

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Retron
27 September 2024 03:33:50

Soon to make landfall. Perhaps 140mph. Worth watching CNN now

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Spot on.

Hurricane Helene Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL      AL092024
1120 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...HELENE MAKES LANDFALL IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...

Based on NWS Doppler radar data, the eye of Helene has made landfall
as a Category 4 hurricane in the Florida Big Bend region at about
11:10 PM EDT (0310 UTC) just east of the mouth of the Aucilla
River.  This is about 10 miles (15 km) west-southwest of Perry,
Florida.  Based on data from Air Force reconnaissance aircraft, the
maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 140 mph (225 km/h) and
the minimum central pressure is 938 mb (27.70 inches).
Leysdown, north Kent
+1
DEW
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27 September 2024 07:26:32
Isaac horror show on Fri 11th 😮

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gfs/00_336_mslp500.png 

Fortunately ECM and GEM, though Fri 11th is beyond the end of their published run, show no sign of Isaac moving towards Britain keeping it slow-moving in mid-Atlantic.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
wingman
27 September 2024 07:31:25

Isaac horror show on Fri 11th 😮

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gfs/00_336_mslp500.png 

Fortunately ECM and GEM, though Fri 11th is beyond the end of their published run, show no sign of Isaac moving towards Britain.

Originally Posted by: DEW 


We are currently holidaying in Porto (leaving next Saturday) and a possible landfall for Issac in Portugal was mentioned above. What would be the best source of info to keep an eye on Issacs path?
DEW
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27 September 2024 07:36:29

We are currently holidaying in Porto (leaving next Saturday) and a possible landfall for Issac in Portugal was mentioned above. What would be the best source of info to keep an eye on Issacs path?

Originally Posted by: wingman 


https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc  for early development

or

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx  for E Atlantic later on - latest GFS for longer term but ECM later on as the latter updates
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+2
DEW
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28 September 2024 06:16:45
TS Joyce now formed in mid-Atlantic. 
NHC tracks show both Joyce and Isaac losing their way in mid-Atlantic rather than affecting coasts of W Europe as shown in some models yesterday but still need watching. 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Bertwhistle
28 September 2024 11:06:54

You might find this interesting:

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20240712-modern-hurricanes-are-rewriting-the-rules-of-extreme-storms 

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


A very interesting article, thanks. I have been thinking about the intensity of storms but as mentioned in this, the danger lies in the broader unpredictability associated with a warming ocean, including earlier start seasons and different paths. One might expect more northerly tracks eventually possible, although the unique shape of the gulf and the latitude of the Ethiopian highlands might mitigate to some degree.
A great article.
Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
The Beast from the East
29 September 2024 00:08:46
GFS picking up another potential hurricane hitting the pan handle again next week
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
DEW
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29 September 2024 06:50:33
Isaac still a tropical storm S of Iceland by Fri 4th according to NHS forecast
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?start#contents 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
doctormog
29 September 2024 06:54:33

Isaac still a tropical storm S of Iceland by Fri 4th according to NHS forecast
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?start#contents 

Originally Posted by: DEW 


It is forecast to be extra-tropical (I.e. lost its tropical characteristics) by tomorrow.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Rob K
29 September 2024 07:06:34

GFS picking up another potential hurricane hitting the pan handle again next week

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Yes I noticed that, seems like a rather similar path to Helene. The NOAA is watching that area.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Retron
29 September 2024 08:06:49

It is forecast to be extra-tropical (I.e. lost its tropical characteristics) by tomorrow.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Yup, as indicated by the white background to the "S" symbols. I know people have been caught out by that in the past. 😁
Leysdown, north Kent
The Beast from the East
29 September 2024 08:53:21

Yes I noticed that, seems like a rather similar path to Helene. The NOAA is watching that area.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


ECM and GEM op doesnt pick it up at all though, but some ensembles do
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
DEW
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30 September 2024 05:37:39
NHC becoming rather active after a quiet month - five current areas of interest; Isaac heading for N Atlantic as post-tropical, Joyce as a 'fish' storm (mid Atlantic but only troubling the fishes), TD 12 following Joyce but now forecast to become a major hurricane south-east of Bermuda, two other areas with >= 50% prospects of development, one near Cabo Verde, other in Gulf of Mexico.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+1
Ally Pally Snowman
30 September 2024 19:54:16
Looks like Hurricane Helene really packed a punch and has caught America off guard somewhat. North Carolina particularly badly hit could be 600 dead. Very slow response as well by authorities. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/crejvrzxgjpt 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Gandalf The White
30 September 2024 21:23:45

Looks like Hurricane Helene really packed a punch and has caught America off guard somewhat. North Carolina particularly badly hit could be 600 dead. Very slow response as well by authorities. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/crejvrzxgjpt 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Given the scale of destruction and the damage to infrastructure is it surprising that the response has been slow in some places?  Sometimes I think people expect miracles whenever a natural disaster strikes.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


+1
Saint Snow
30 September 2024 21:34:13

Given the scale of destruction and the damage to infrastructure is it surprising that the response has been slow in some places?  Sometimes I think people expect miracles whenever a natural disaster strikes.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 




If the Democrats were smart, they'd have had the military on high alert to go there pronto. Voters love seeing boots on the ground trying to help. And there should have been Harris with photo ops and interviews to say she prepared for the worst so that people would be helped quickly.

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
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Aneurin Bevan
Gandalf The White
30 September 2024 22:02:24

If the Democrats were smart, they'd have had the military on high alert to go there pronto. Voters love seeing boots on the ground trying to help. And there should have been Harris with photo ops and interviews to say she prepared for the worst so that people would be helped quickly.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


Do you appreciate that we’re talking about an area over twice the size of the entire UK?  The scale and extent of the damage is almost incomprehensible. 
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Chunky Pea
30 September 2024 22:42:39
I hear that people in the affected areas are planting Ukraine flags in the hope that it will attract much needed aid. 
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Gandalf The White
30 September 2024 23:23:00

I hear that people in the affected areas are planting Ukraine flags in the hope that it will attract much needed aid. 

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 


Well, at least they’ll have some understanding of what Ukrainians have had to endure for the last 30 months, won’t they.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


+1
Bertwhistle
02 October 2024 17:34:50

Isaac horror show on Fri 11th 😮

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gfs/00_336_mslp500.png 

Fortunately ECM and GEM, though Fri 11th is beyond the end of their published run, show no sign of Isaac moving towards Britain keeping it slow-moving in mid-Atlantic.

Originally Posted by: DEW 


Isaac reminds me of the Galveston hurricane of 1900, nicknamed 'Isaac's storm' after an early US meteorologist. Still one of the deadliest on record today, a huge storm surge destroyed hundreds of buildings. I recall the sudden change in wind direction in the account I read.
Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
DEW
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03 October 2024 06:44:03
Hurricane Kirk now has its own thread under Severe Weather for Britain; but just to note that TS Leslie has now been declared and predicted to become a hurricane further south than Kirk. It should develop further once interference from Kirk declines.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
tallyho_83
05 October 2024 21:51:16
"Milton" - Came out of nowhere all of a sudden we have something in the Gulf and this looks set to become a major hurricane and furthermore it could strengthen more than the model forecasts are usually conservative when it comes to wind speeds/strengths etc. This shows a direct hit on Tampa Bay if this model came off as forecasted.
UserPostedImage
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


picturesareme
05 October 2024 23:26:24

"Milton" - Came out of nowhere all of a sudden we have something in the Gulf and this looks set to become a major hurricane and furthermore it could strengthen more than the model forecasts are usually conservative when it comes to wind speeds/strengths etc. This shows a direct hit on Tampa Bay if this model came off as forecasted.
UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


Didn't exactly come out of nowhere, they've been talking about it for best part of a week now.
tallyho_83
06 October 2024 00:07:50
Well it was not on the NHC model. Usually it shows a percentage of probability like with Helena and yesterday when I checked all I could see was Kirk and Leslie. So Milton obviously strengthened and very quickly. 
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


The Beast from the East
06 October 2024 00:15:01

Well it was not on the NHC model. Usually it shows a percentage of probability like with Helena and yesterday when I checked all I could see was Kirk and Leslie. So Milton obviously strengthened and very quickly. 

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


GFS had picked it up several days ago. But NHC does seem to be very cautious. 
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
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