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Retron
09 October 2024 16:33:24
...and acutely aware of the fact that this is of course the model discussion thread, rather than the discussion about model discussion thread, here's a more on-topic post!

It looks like tomorrow night, and Friday night, are going to be notably cold here in the south. Some areas have already seen ground frosts, but I think air frosts have been restricted to places further north so far.

That could well change tomorrow, as the MetO raw has 4C here, with the ensemble (MOGREPS?) having an absolute min of 2, followed by another 4C with a possible min of zero on Friday night. Further inland, say at the wolf centre near Reading, the values are 1C / ens min -1C and 3C / ens min -3C. Looking at the very high-res models, the coldest spots look like being in a line from south Wales eastwards, with e.g. Hereford seeing a forecast min of zero on Thursday night.

That's relatively early to be talking about possible air frosts IMO...

I'll certainly be keeping an eye out for a ground frost here, and again that would be early.

It won't last long, and indeed by Tuesday we're back into double-figure minima here. It does, however, carry on the pattern we've seen recently - wild swings between notably cold and our usual mild weather. If (big if) that can continue into November things will get more interesting!
Leysdown, north Kent
Saint Snow
09 October 2024 17:38:38

Agreed, I always pop in to read DEW's summary, but that is it, I can look at the charts myself if I want to check something.

Originally Posted by: warrenb 



Yes, most of us have enough basic knowledge of how to interpret a weather map to get a broad picture.

But the beauty of this forum in it's heyday was that you had a number of posters that had a deeper knowledge and understanding of the wider weather picture. And they would share their understanding with others, which over time improved our understanding, too.

Sadly, some were driven out by a handful of spiteful muppets, some of whom had vehement anti-Met Office (anti-public sector) views.

DEW's daily summaries provide a great snapshot and I check them out most days. It's selfless contributions like this that keep the site going.

Saying that, when someone like Retron or Stormchaser make one of their [sadly rare] deep contributions, it's something different and adds further. But there were once several doing so, and more regularly.

As I say, it helped every TWO'er increase their understanding of model output.

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Brian Gaze
09 October 2024 17:51:37

...and acutely aware of the fact that this is of course the model discussion thread, rather than the discussion about model discussion thread, here's a more on-topic post!

It looks like tomorrow night, and Friday night, are going to be notably cold here in the south. Some areas have already seen ground frosts, but I think air frosts have been restricted to places further north so far.

That could well change tomorrow, as the MetO raw has 4C here, with the ensemble (MOGREPS?) having an absolute min of 2, followed by another 4C with a possible min of zero on Friday night. Further inland, say at the wolf centre near Reading, the values are 1C / ens min -1C and 3C / ens min -3C. Looking at the very high-res models, the coldest spots look like being in a line from south Wales eastwards, with e.g. Hereford seeing a forecast min of zero on Thursday night.

That's relatively early to be talking about possible air frosts IMO...

I'll certainly be keeping an eye out for a ground frost here, and again that would be early.

It won't last long, and indeed by Tuesday we're back into double-figure minima here. It does, however, carry on the pattern we've seen recently - wild swings between notably cold and our usual mild weather. If (big if) that can continue into November things will get more interesting!

Originally Posted by: Retron 



I'm not sure about that. A reliable weather station at Little Gaddesden (in the valley a few miles from me) logged 0.9C in early September. Therefore, I'd be somewhat surprised if air frosts haven't been recorded in at least a few parts of the south. However, I would agree they certainly haven't been widely reported yet.
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Chunky Pea
09 October 2024 18:09:52
Met Eireann are using a new 'super' model as well. 
https://www.met.ie/new-met-eireann-weather-and-climate-supercomputer-becomes-operational-in-unique-collaboration-with-three-other-national-meteorological-services#:~:text=New%20model%20coverage%20and%20characteristics,different%20upgraded%20versions )%20since%202011.
Doubt it will be made public but if it is anything like their 'Harmonie' model, they can keep it. I often find that lower res global models end up being more accurate than the higher res short range ones. 
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 


"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
White Meadows
10 October 2024 00:10:24

Yes, most of us have enough basic knowledge of how to interpret a weather map to get a broad picture.

But the beauty of this forum in it's heyday was that you had a number of posters that had a deeper knowledge and understanding of the wider weather picture. And they would share their understanding with others, which over time improved our understanding, too.

Sadly, some were driven out by a handful of spiteful muppets, some of whom had vehement anti-Met Office (anti-public sector) views.

DEW's daily summaries provide a great snapshot and I check them out most days. It's selfless contributions like this that keep the site going.

Saying that, when someone like Retron or Stormchaser make one of their [sadly rare] deep contributions, it's something different and adds further. But there were once several doing so, and more regularly.

As I say, it helped every TWO'er increase their understanding of model output.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


They were the days. Lots of like minded individuals who promoted independent forecasting and private ventures into meteorology. Those who challenged the mainstream and questioned the reliability of state funded giants. Their contributions gave valuable insight and important contrast to the media driven circus. 
DEW
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10 October 2024 07:24:42
WX temp charts continuing yesterday's trend, starting with more or less normal temps across  Europe in week 1 then in week 2 milder weather from the south, even warm for parts of France and S England, while a compensating cold plunge appears along the line of the Urals, affecting much of Russia and reaching Turkey. Some rain for much of Europe in week 1 but only heavy for Atlantic coasts; in week 2 this rain area retreats back to mid Atlantic but locally heavy rain for W Med and Black Sea.

GFS Op - current trough retreating NE-wards, and after Saturday's small areas of LP (995mb Orkney, 1000mb Galicia) have filled, pressure rises Sun 13th for Britain and W Europe, eventually Tue 15th settling 1025mb Denmark. That with Lp on Atlantic generates S-lies for Britain. This synoptic basically continues through to Fri 25th though W fringes of Britain occasionally get the Atlantic LP closer, esp  Fri 18th in SW England and Wed 25th in NW Ireland.

ECM - differs from GFS after Thu 17th when LP is positioned near Iceland and HP near Spain, Britain in strong W/SW flow to at least Sun 20th

GEM - like GFS but the trough Fri 18th affects more than just the SW, and after that the LP/HP combination is tighter with S-ly gales

GEFS - present cool/cold spell ends Tue 15th after which mild, even warm in the S, through to Tue 22nd, then declining slowly as ens agreement breaks up. Small amounts of rain in some runs at any time in the E, rather more frequent and heavier in the W, the Highlands also seeing more this Saturday with brief chance of snow.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Pembo
10 October 2024 11:11:08

They were the days. Lots of like minded individuals who promoted independent forecasting and private ventures into meteorology. Those who challenged the mainstream and questioned the reliability of state funded giants. Their contributions gave valuable insight and important contrast to the media driven circus. 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 


I used to love being a regular poster here; learning and sharing the knowledge.   Enjoyed the years in admin too.  Years now since I regularly contributed...probably 10-15 at a guess and when the updated forum came into play, I lost all my "contribution numbers".  I do though read every single day - just never in signed in mode.  TWO will always be my 'go-to' when I've looked at the models and want to read what others are thinking....

PS - Just realised my account is set up with my old work account, so if ever I forget my password or need MFA, I'll probably need a new account unless you can change a linked mail address.

Hope you're all well.
DEW
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11 October 2024 06:59:25
WX temp charts - looking much like yesterday, becoming/staying mild for W Europe (though not as much as yesterday), cold over N Finland and esp E Russia with cool weather spreading south from there. Generally damp over Europe for the next two weeks, heavy rain around Portugal in week 1 and around W Britain in week 2. No large dry areas as previously shown.

GFS Op - shallow LP 1000mb drifting across N Scotland but otherwise pressure is rising and eventually becomes centred 1025mb Denmark Tue 15th with LP mid-Atlantic but unlike yesterday not persisting. A series of troughs cross Britain from the west with the weather developing a zonal W-ly pattern. LP near Iceland, HP S Europe. the roughs are stronger/dip further south Thu 17th, Mon 21st, Thu 24th, and the final chart Sun 27th has a dartboard low 960mb approaching.

ECM - As GFS (it was already showing the zonal evolution yesterday)

GEM - as above; perhaps more chance of HP extending from the south from Sun 20th

GEFS - becoming mild Tue 15th but dropping back close to mean more quickly than yesterday with ens agreement breaking down after Sun 20th. Dry in the S at first but substantial rain likely around Thu 17th, intermittent thereafter but more than shown yesterday esp in the SW. In the N, some peaks before the 17th, and then more persistent than in the S esp heavy in the NW.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
GezM
  • GezM
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11 October 2024 11:13:56
GFS was looking encouraging for a couple of days earlier in the week with high pressure sitting over southern Scandinavia, holding back those Atlantic fronts and allowing a prolonged run of warm southerlies. ECM was always more progressive and GFS seems to be coming on board now. 

After the current cold snap, we now seem to be looking at generally mild and very changeable weather. Wet and windy at times with a few drier , brighter spells. 

GFS 0z Ops run might have be at the worse end of the options but certainly is a feasible outcome 
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
White Meadows
11 October 2024 20:48:24
 A typical north west/ south east split showing its hand for the coming 10 days, albeit with transient fronts sweeping further south on occasion. 
Towards the end of the American model, we see a dominant HP cell to our north east, which would bring a dry close to the month. 
DEW
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12 October 2024 07:19:57
WX temps - week 1 as shown yesterday, quite mild ins SW Europe just about reaching Cornwall, cool/cold in Russia and the east, all replaced in week 2 by uniformly normal temps spreading from the Atlantic, though N Russia stays freezing.  In week 1, rain for Atlnatic fringes (not too much for Britain) plus N Italy and N Turkey; in week 2 the rain is over the NW Atlantic, heavy for NW Britain, and that in N Italy moves S to Sicily. Becoming dry or very dry in other parts of Europe.

GFS Op - troughs today to N & S of Britain drifting E-wards and S-wards to allow HP to establish 1020mb England tomorrow. This HP moves to Denmark (back to  forecast of day before yesterday) which with LP on Atlantic generates S-lies for Britain, but not lasting as long as that previous forecast, spoilt by shallow trough Thu 17th creeping E-wards to N Sea as it fills, repeated on Fri 18th and Sun 20th. A travelling HP comes in from the west, mostly for England Wed 23rd , moves on to Poland Sat 26th with more Atlantic troughs esp for NW Britain. Final chart has very deep LP 970mb moving in close to N Ireland, HP near Ukraine.

ECM - like GFS, but HP hangs on after Fri 18th and the trough on Sun 20th is absent, HP well established over France Tue 22nd.

GEM - like ECM; plus small LP passing Orkney Mon 21st

GEFS - Becoming (very) mild briefly, back to norm Sat 19th, then mean stays near norm but wide spread from ens members. Rain likely either side of Fri 18th, heaviest in W esp SW , declining as time goes on, 


No review tomorrow; I'm out early organising an orienteering event.

War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Saint Snow
12 October 2024 20:31:42
Everything this week is very transient. Low-ridge-low-ridge-low.

If you've got anything planned, it's flip a coin as to what sort of day you'll get.

Sod's law that we're at Alton Towers on Friday. Hate it when it rains there, ruins the entire day. I'd been hoping for chilly, dry and still with a bit of mist. That's not going to happen!

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
13 October 2024 06:05:24
Vey briefly since I have to dash out ...

WX temps continuing a bir above norm for the next 2 weeks. Mild in the far west, retreating to Spain; conversely cold in the north, retreating northwards. Rain for Atlantic coastal countries and Italy splitting into two, half moving back to NW (incl Scotland0, half south to Sicily.

GFS - not quite as rapidly alternating as SS suggests; but nevertheless  for Britain HP now, Mon 21st (centred to SE),   LP Fri 18th, Fri 25th.

GEFS - mild 17th, back to norm19th, mean staying near norm with considerable variation in individual runs with op & control throwing in a couple of milder spells, declining later. rain  a couple of days either side of Sat 19th, much less before and after (far NW stays wet)
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
DEW
  • DEW
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14 October 2024 07:13:36
WX temp charts - in week 1 notably mild weather moving north up the Atlantic coast of Europe as far as Britain, rest of NW Europe a bit above normal, E Europe cool. In week 2, the mild weather retreats southwards and something much colder begins to move south near the Urals. Rain as yesterday, in week 1 for Atlantic coastal countries and inland as far as Italy; in week 2 the rainy areas splits, part to the N Atlantic (but still affecting NW Britain), part to S Italy and Crete.

GFS Op - This week starts with HP in the Baltic and LP west of Ireland, S-lies for Britain, exact boundary between LP and HP influence uncertain; GFS moves LP towards Britain on Thursday, MetO on Wednesday. HP slowly recovers to be principal effect on Britain by Sun 20th with winds now strong SW-ly. New trough crossing S England Tue 22nd, then a period with HP approaching and retreating from the SE while LP hangs around on the Atlantic, taking a bite at Britain esp the NW Thu 24th, Sun 27th, Mon 30th.

ECM - agrees with GFS though trough on Tue 22nd is aimed at N England

GEM - different after Mon 21st bringing a deep LP 970 mb past and close to N Scotland after which LP to the north and HP to the south brings in a full zonal westerly with transient troughs rapidly crossing Britain.

GEFS - very mild for Wed 16th, the an week with most ens members around a couple of degrees above norm, final week mean temps drop to norm with poor agreement (Op & control definitely cool) Rain from Thu 17th for a few days , lasting longer and heavier in the west, then intermittent but not too heavy out to Wed 30th. 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
cultman1
14 October 2024 19:29:15
Interesting outlook for the foreseeable. for the south.  I believe there will be an extended spell of  a very mild period of weather interspersed with rainy conditions right into early November and maybe well beyond. The Met Office seems to be hinting a similar outlook? Looking like a repeat of autumn 2023?
White Meadows
14 October 2024 21:11:17

Interesting outlook for the foreseeable. for the south.  I believe there will be an extended spell of  a very mild period of weather interspersed with rainy conditions right into early November and maybe well beyond. The Met Office seems to be hinting a similar outlook? Looking like a repeat of autumn 2023?

Originally Posted by: cultman1 


Probably a fair share of mild nights (story of 2024) but not overly so, before a return to average temps by month end. 
Certainly looks like the far north will rarely be in short supply of gusty/ severe wind events with all those tight isobars. 
Brian Gaze
14 October 2024 21:44:52

Interesting outlook for the foreseeable. for the south.  I believe there will be an extended spell of  a very mild period of weather interspersed with rainy conditions right into early November and maybe well beyond. The Met Office seems to be hinting a similar outlook? Looking like a repeat of autumn 2023?

Originally Posted by: cultman1 


30 day tracker (the one I generally look) has 2023 at No 1.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/premium/weather-analogues.aspx?dt=30days 
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
15 October 2024 07:18:08
WWX charts show W Europe with temps above norm for the next two weeks, some very mild weather around Biscay and just about spreading into Britain from the SW while something much colder moves S-wards into E Russia. Rain for Atlantic coastal countries in week 1, not as heavy as shown yesterday, and also for S Italy. In week 2 the former patch moves NW-wards still affecting N Scotland and the latter expands to cover most of the Mediterranean. Very dry for E Europe in week 1, that area enlarging E-wards.

GFS Op - up to Tue 22nd HP near Belarus/Romania with Atlantic troughs or full blown LPs running past Britain in a NE-ly direction. Mild S/SW-lies for Britain, LP closest Thu 17th (a weak trough), Sun 20th (970mb Rockall), Then HP from the SW moves into Britain Wed 23rd 1030mb and forms an E-W ridge (LP still affecting the south) until Tue 29th when a trough extends from the N and becomes a large LP centred over N Britain 985mb Thu 31st.

ECM - like GFS at first though LP Sun 20th is deeper and closer (960mb near Galway), After Wed 23rd the HP collapses S-wards and leaves Britain in vigorous W-lies with LP near Faeroes

GEM - as GFS to Wed 23rd, then like ECM but with the LP then close to N Scotland with troughs over Britain as a whole.

GEFS - Currently mild, dropping irregularly to norm and staying there to to about Wed 23rd. Most ens members then quite cold but mean is held nearer norm by a few extremely mild runs including the op run. Rain at 2- or 3-day intervals to Wed 23rd, (most marked in S & W, rather less at later dates in the N)  then somewhat drier,

Quite a split between the models in a week's time.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
DEW
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16 October 2024 07:18:57
WX temps as yesterday  show W Europe with temps above norm for the next two weeks, some very mild weather around Biscay and just about spreading into Britain from the SW while something much colder moves S-wards into E Russia. Signs of a cold spot developing over the Alps. The rainfall pattern is similar too Atlantic coastal countries in week 1, not as heavy as shown yesterday, and also for S Italy. In week 2 the former patch moves NW-wards still affecting N Scotland but on today's showing especially Norway; the latter expands into the Balkans . V[color=var(--bs-body-color)]ery dry for E Europe in week 1, that area enlarging E-wards.[/color]

GFS Op - trough currently moving E-wards across Britain but fizzling out as HP near Baltic revives. On Sun 20th/on 21st deep depression 970 mb runs NE-wards very close to NW Scotland, strong SW-lies for rest of Britain. Then W-ly zonal pattern with alternating HP (mainly for the S Wed 23rd, Sun 27th, Wed 30th) and LP (mainly for the N Thu 24th, and that on Tue 29th rather weak)

ECM - similar though slower to clear the current trough

GEM - as GFS; stronger signs of a N-ly developing after the trough on Thu 24th

GEFS - temps descending irregularly to a low point (say 3C below norm) Sat 26th before recovering. Quite good ens agreement up to 26th. Rain matching GFS forecast of LPs above, least in the south and there becoming quite dry after 26th
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Hungry Tiger
16 October 2024 21:07:18

Yes, most of us have enough basic knowledge of how to interpret a weather map to get a broad picture.

But the beauty of this forum in it's heyday was that you had a number of posters that had a deeper knowledge and understanding of the wider weather picture. And they would share their understanding with others, which over time improved our understanding, too.

Sadly, some were driven out by a handful of spiteful muppets, some of whom had vehement anti-Met Office (anti-public sector) views.

DEW's daily summaries provide a great snapshot and I check them out most days. It's selfless contributions like this that keep the site going.

Saying that, when someone like Retron or Stormchaser make one of their [sadly rare] deep contributions, it's something different and adds further. But there were once several doing so, and more regularly.

As I say, it helped every TWO'er increase their understanding of model output.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


Great post there Saint. Much appreciated. I'll take this opportunity to say your contribution to this forum is excellent also. 🙂🙂
Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


johncs2016
16 October 2024 22:19:11

Yes, most of us have enough basic knowledge of how to interpret a weather map to get a broad picture.

But the beauty of this forum in it's heyday was that you had a number of posters that had a deeper knowledge and understanding of the wider weather picture. And they would share their understanding with others, which over time improved our understanding, too.

Sadly, some were driven out by a handful of spiteful muppets, some of whom had vehement anti-Met Office (anti-public sector) views.

DEW's daily summaries provide a great snapshot and I check them out most days. It's selfless contributions like this that keep the site going.

Saying that, when someone like Retron or Stormchaser make one of their [sadly rare] deep contributions, it's something different and adds further. But there were once several doing so, and more regularly.

As I say, it helped every TWO'er increase their understanding of model output.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


We can easily see what all of this has led to as well.

First of all, fewer intelligent posters means that you get less intelligent content on here and despite the fact that this thread is supposed to be all about the latest model output, I've lost track of the number of posts on here which have about anything but that. I know that Brian and the mods have the job of having to deal with that in the appropriate manner but like the rest of us, they also have their own lives to live outside of TWO and so they might not necessarily have the time to be able to do that in any great detail.

Next, there is the fact that the current conditions threads are weekly instead of daily. That would never have been even close to being the case in this forum's heydays but as things went more downhill, we ended up with certain days when nothing at all would be posted on those threads with hardly anything being reported on other days which is why in the end, those ended up becoming weekly instead of daily. Thankfully, we have DEW who continues to start these threads every week and in addition to his daily contributions on these threads, that is also something else which we can be thankful for.

After that, we then have to look at those threads which I start on here myself at the beginning of each month, season or year which are the final statistics threads for each month, year and season, the monthly precipitation threads and in most seasons, the moaning threads. In this forum's heyday, I would never have even a hint of a chance of being able to do any of that because there would always have been someone else to do that. Sadly, that is no longer the case and had I not continued to start those threads, I do often wonder whether or not at least some of these threads might even have been started at all.

Out of those threads, the monthly statistics threads are the ones which always have very few posts and although we will still always get at least one other post on there, that often ends up being the only one which there is. In this forum's heyday though, that never used to be the case and back then, there were usually always quite a few members who would be more than willing to post that month's final statistics for their location which is what those threads are for.

Adding all of up, all of this shows the where we are with with this forum nowadays, at least with those parts of these forums which I involve myself with and it's just so sad that it's now come to that.

Anyway, I would have a cheek to talk about other people being off topic on here if I continued to be off topic on here myself, so I will finish by talking about the latest model output which is very interesting going into the beginning of next week. In fact, the Met Office have already issued a yellow warning for wind for here on Sunday and Monday as a deep low approaches NW Scotland.

If that output verifies, this low could well be our first named storm of the season and if that is named by the Met Office, Met Eirean or the Dutch Met Service, it will be known as Storm Ashley. I reckon that there is a very good chance of that happening and it will be interesting to see if that is the case or not.

The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
17 October 2024 07:25:59
WX temps continue the theme of seasonal norm or slightly above for W Europe in week 1; colder air in Finland and N Russia has withdrawn and these areas though cool are above norm. In week 2 cooler air arrives from the NW directly affecting Britain and promising some early snow for the Alps. Rain in week 1 for N Atlantic & nearby coasts and for S Italy; in week 2 the former declines and the latter expands to cover most of the C Mediterranean.

GFS Op - current trough moves away E-wards (Meto says that the clearance is behind a front which doesn't show up on the pressure charts). Then a deep depression arrives to the W of Ireland 960mb Sun 20th moving quickly NE-wards but a lingering trough in the Atlantic plus continental HP gives strong SW-lies for Britain (fine in SE, unsettled in NW) until end of week when eventually the trough moves in and becomes centred 1000mb N Sea Sat 26th. For the following week that LP moves S-wards and circulates around various parts of continental W Europe, close enough to affect SE England at times while pressure remains high over Scotland. Finally the LP moves off to Portugal and HP covers a large area from Britain to Scandinavia Sat 2nd.

ECM - like GFS but throws in a kink in the isobars which could be tomorrow's front. At the end of the week the lingering trough takes a different and more active course, 990mb Fastnet Fri 25th and dropping S-wards as pressure rises generally but weakly over Britain.

GEM - between GFS and ECM. The lingering trough is slower to arrive and pressure remains quite high for the start of next week. Then the LP does develop near S Ireland but runs across England to reach the N Sea Sat 26th

GEFS - Rain on and off for the week beginning Sun 20th, front-loaded in the NW, back-loaded in the NE, rather dry after that. Temps decreasing in stages to become cool Sat 26th and in the S remaining 2 or 3C below norm for the rest of the month while the N has so much variation in ens members that temp is unpredictable..
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
18 October 2024 07:10:48
WX temps not showing much change in week 1 from the present situation with most of Europe a bit above norm, but although cool in the far north, very much above norm for that area. The cold push from the NW shown yesterday and affecting Britain and W Europe is much diminished; instead there's colder weather on the way for Scandinavia and the E Baltic though not unseasonably so. For much below seasonal norm, go to Turkey and E Mediterranean. Rain in week 1 heavy in C Mediterranean, moving W-wards in week 2; also some for Atlantic fringes diminishing in week 2. Very dry in week 1 for E Europe and in week 2 for W Europe including England.

GFS Op - deep LP near Iceland now with SW-lies for Britain (slight kink in isobars indicates passage of a front) generating a secondary which deepens even more 965mb as it passes NW Ireland Sun 20th. After this passes NE-wards, there is a W-ly spell until Wed 23rd when HP 1030mb becomes centred Belgium. Then HP hangs on  for W Europe including Britain though slightly dented by transient troughs (995mb Biscay Fri 25th, 1005mb N Scotland Mon 28th) but eventually covering Britain 1030mb Fri 1st with a tendency then to slide E-wards.

ECM - similar to GFS but the trough Fri 25th/Sat 26th is more active (990mb) and much closer to Britain, running quickly SE-wards across Cornwall.

GEM - emphasises the trough Sat 26th onwards even more, 995mb Wight 26th and still hanging around off E Kent on 28th.

GEFS - temps up (21st, 25th, 29th) and down (between these dates) but not far from norm; ens agreement progressively breaks down after Fri 25th, virtually no agreement in Scotland. Some bursts of rain at first esp in S England, dry for a few days from Wed 23rd, then some heavy rain in the N esp NW for a few days, in the S and later in the N small amounts of rain in some but not all ens members.


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Retron
18 October 2024 17:53:21
If only it were January...
UserPostedImage
(From the 12z GFS - and yes, I know it'd collapse pretty quickly, it's not cold and it's at 384, but it's nice to see. A reminder that the silly season is just around the corner!)
Leysdown, north Kent
doctormog
18 October 2024 18:31:30

If only it were January...
UserPostedImage
(From the 12z GFS - and yes, I know it'd collapse pretty quickly, it's not cold and it's at 384, but it's nice to see. A reminder that the silly season is just around the corner!)

Originally Posted by: Retron 


Easterly muck 🤣

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