theweatheroutlook

Remove ads from site

Brian Gaze
11 October 2024 21:33:42
I've removed a number of posts from this thread. Please stay on topic or I will have to lock it.
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
tallyho_83
12 October 2024 23:06:20
@ +252z on 18z GFS shows something brewing in the gulf and heading toward NW Florida once again: - May not verify of course but something to keep an eye on once again:

UserPostedImage
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


picturesareme
19 October 2024 18:09:33
Hurricane Oscar what an embarrassing hurricane for the NHC 😂
Just a few hours ago it was (apparently) a disturbance with a 20% chance of developing. Then they sent hurricane recon plane to investigate finding it was already a cat 1 hurricane.
Gandalf The White
19 October 2024 20:30:35

Hurricane Oscar what an embarrassing hurricane for the NHC 😂
Just a few hours ago it was (apparently) a disturbance with a 20% chance of developing. Then they sent hurricane recon plane to investigate finding it was already a cat 1 hurricane.

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


Why is it embarrassing?  The earlier forecast was based on the latest available data. Are you suggesting they should guess?
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


+2
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
20 October 2024 06:21:18

Why is it embarrassing?  The earlier forecast was based on the latest available data. Are you suggesting they should guess?

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


The expectation is that with satellite data you should know about hurricane formation the instant it happens, if not before; against which, as we've seen already this summer, current models were developed for an era in which SSTs were not as elevated as they are now.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Gandalf The White
20 October 2024 09:32:49

The expectation is that with satellite data you should know about hurricane formation the instant it happens, if not before; against which, as we've seen already this summer, current models were developed for an era in which SSTs were not as elevated as they are now.

Originally Posted by: DEW 


Well, since Oscar developed very fast obviously the satellite data wasn’t sufficiently up to date either.

As for the computer models, that’s not correct: the models are based on physics, so they should deal with warmer oceans - and as we have seen with other storms this season, they do.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
20 October 2024 09:47:39

Well, since Oscar developed very fast obviously the satellite data wasn’t sufficiently up to date either.

As for the computer models, that’s not correct: the models are based on physics, so they should deal with warmer oceans - and as we have seen with other storms this season, they do.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


As I understand it, the models are modified and improved with feedback from actual situations, which is why predictions of British weather are more accurate if there's a westerly dominance rather than, say, northerly or easterly. As SSTs in the Caribbean and W Atlantic have been unprecedently high, I would expect that a similar feedback process will lead to more accurate hurricane forecasts in the future.

The physics doesn't change, but our understanding of its implications does.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Users browsing this topic

    Remove ads from site

    Ads