WX temp charts show week 1 above normal for Europe, esp in the east, cooling in week 2; not much change for Britain but freezing patches appearing in Scandinavia, Russia and the Alps and much of E Europe dropping 4-6C. Rain for N Atlantic and W Mediterranean week 1, but only significant in E Med in week 2. The rather dry area switches from SE Europe to SW Europe, Britain in week 2 on the fringes of this.
GFS Op - with storm Ashley out of the way, pressure rises over N France 1030mb Wed 23rd affecting Britain briefly before a series of shallow troughs move across from the W to stall and deepen Sweden 995mb Tue 29th with N-lies for Britain, soon dispersed by pressure rise from the SW which develops into a ridge from Norway 1045mb Mon 4th across to Scotland, and E-lies for the south.
ECM - similar to GFS but HP moves up from the SW a day or two sooner, arriving Tue 29th and keeping the N-lies away
GEM - the last of the Atlantic troughs is better defined at 995mb Bristol Channel and sinks S-wards rather than moving to Sweden. This allows HP with a ridge from Sweden to be in place by Tue 29th, while the LP generating N-lies is far off, in Finland
GEFS - In the S, temps up then down then back to norm Sun 27th, after which mean stays near norm but no agreement from ens members. Brief pulses of rain 22nd, 25th, 28th then mostly dry. Scotland similar temps with the addition of another cooler spell Tue 29th, rain most likely 25th and 28th but not much in the east.
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Chichester 12m asl