Looks like we are nailed on for the third consecutive sub 14c June CET, which hasn't happened since 1981.
Originally Posted by: Stormchaser
Why do you think that???
Originally Posted by: Steam Fog
[font=comic sans ms,sans-serif; font-size: small]I can see why he would think that, because using data from the 06z GFS op run of today and starting with the unadjusted Hadley CET to 21st June gives a final CET fractionally under 14.0°C, and we know that Hadley is likely to be corrected downward from the preliminary data.[/font]
[font=comic sans ms,sans-serif; font-size: small]Using Phillip Eden's 13.2°C to 20th, then adding yesterday's CET value followed by the 06z GFS op run to month's end gives a final CET of 13.7°C. Even doing a rough adjustment to account for GFS potentially overdoing the minimums on a few nights doesn't lift the final CET to 14.0°C.
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[font=comic sans ms,sans-serif; font-size: small]So I'm inclined to agree with Brummie Snowman there, and anticipate another near-1°C error in the competition. 'Steady half-decent predictions' seems to be my nature this year!
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Originally Posted by: Brummie Snowman