Good morning. Here is the report on the midnight outputs from my perspective for Monday July 8th 2013.
All areas look like maintaining fine and dry conditions throughout this week and next weekend. The High pressure wobbles around a bit during this period with small but subtle differences from day to day. The most notable one will be a cooling phase for many midweek as cooler air slides across the UK from the North and NE with some temporary low cloud patches too in the far East and NE. However, by Thursday and into next weekend temperatures will recover again as High pressure reasserts it's influence for all and cuts off the cooling flow off the North Sea over the East. Later next weekend winds will tun more NW in the far North introducing more cloud later and slightly cooler conditions again here though elsewhere next weekend looks fine, sunny and very warm.
GFS then shows a weak trough or two sliding past the far North which could introduce a little rain here for a time in the early part of next week. Elsewhere there will be fine and settled weather still but with a little more daytime cloud cover than of late though still very warm, especially towards the South. Late in the run High pressure maintains it's UK influence as it rebuilds from the SW so after a few 'iffy' days when a few showers are just about possible anywhere for a time the weather would return very warm and sunny two weeks from now.
The GFS Ensembles show that the operational is on the warm side of the pack through next week. While at first glance the volume of the pack do show cooler weather ahead there is nothing alarmist about them either in terms of temperatures or rainfall, especially in terms of rainfall as it looks basically dry throughout the next two weeks in the South with no excessive rainfall in the North either.
The Jet Stream currently blows harmlessly well north of the UK where it remains for the next 5-6 days. There are signs of it tilting SE down over the UK next week as high pressure shifts more out into the Atlantic and in the far reaches of it's run moves to a positions South of the UK again although this is hardly worthy of mention at such a range.
UKMO today indicates High pressure having built back over the UK with it's position close to Western Ireland with a strong ridge over Britain maintaining fine, sunny and very warm conditions across Britain late next weekend and beyond.
GEM today maintains a ridge across the UK throughout the end section of its run taking us out to 10 days from now with continued fine,warm and sunny weather for most parts of the UK.
NAVGEM shows pressure leaking away slowly early next week as Low pressure drifts down towards the North with a Westerly flow developing next week with some rain likely in the North by the end of it's run next Tuesday.
ECM finally shows a fine and warm start to next week as High pressure clings on in the South with still a lot of pleasantly warm sunshine. Further North things will become more cloudy and cooler early next week with the chance of rain by midweek from fronts moving in from the west and by Day 10 it looks like this will begin to make some progress South and East across the UK though would be unlikely to reach the extreme South before very late in the week if at all.
In Summary the weather looks set fair for a good while to come. While the very highest of the temperatures might be achieved in the next few days it will always stay warm or very warm especially in the South and West this week. There is a trend shown for a slow change to somewhat cooler conditions as winds turn more North-Westerly in the North which would feed more cloud in from the Atlantic and some of this may seep down into parts of England and Wales too later next week as Low pressure tries to edge down from the NW. The progress looks slow and arduous though and may not affect the South at all in the period shown. We are unlikely to see a thundery breakdown of any kind from this kind of setup to end this hot spell which I suppose could be a disappointment for some but I'm sure holidaymakers in the South will be more than happy with the prospect of another 10-14 days of decent summery type weather to come.
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset