Model Output Discussion 7-7-2013 >>>· Page 2

Downpour
Advanced Member

08 July 2013 11:01:09

The problem with Matt Hugo's tweets are that they only ever seem to highlight unsettled conditions. It was only 10 days ago that he was tweeting the ECM 32 dayer was looking poor, and look at us now. June should have been awful going by his tweets, but it was certainly very acceptable up here.

Just my two cents worth since his is so frequently mentioned on here.

Originally Posted by: AlvinMeister

Indeed. He seems to have a big following but IMO winter is where his talents lie. In summer, as you say, he is just that bit too keen to cool-ramp and it simply hasn't been working out for him this summer. Even his most one-eyed devotees must admit that he has scored a series of fails and, while his home region of the NW may see a slightly cooler picture from mid-month, for most of us July is now looking pretty much set fair for the foreseeable.

Chingford
London E4
147ft

Andy Woodcock
Advanced Member

08 July 2013 11:44:50

#27

Ecm is much more keen on a breakdown early next week especially in the north. Just one run but gfs looks less settled as well and both back up the
Meto 10dayer. Even so it will go down as an excellent spell of weather but north of manchester the writing is on the wall for this fine weather. Andy

Andy Woodcock
Penrith
Cumbria

Altitude 535 feet

"Why are the British so worried about climate change? Any change to their climate can only be an improvement" John Daley 2001

Gavin P
Advanced Member

08 July 2013 11:50:48

#28

Hi all,

Here's today's video update;

High Pressure Keeps It Dry And Very Warm:

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/

Can't see much sign of a change today - ECM is a little more unsettled by day 10, but no reason to get hung up on that.

Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids

moomin75
Advanced Member

08 July 2013 12:20:05

#29

Hi all,

Here's today's video update;

High Pressure Keeps It Dry And Very Warm:

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/

Can't see much sign of a change today - ECM is a little more unsettled by day 10, but no reason to get hung up on that.

Originally Posted by: Gavin P

Great stuff Gav. A lovely week or so left of this current spell before possible changes to something cooler and more unsettled by the end of the month.

That said, it could be a fleeting unsettled spell, or it might not happen at all.

I for one am going to enjoy the next 7-10 days and worry about the end of July a bit closer to the time.

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL

NickR
Advanced Member

08 July 2013 12:20:45

#30

Ecm is much more keen on a breakdown early next week especially in the north. Just one run but gfs looks less settled as well and both back up the
Meto 10dayer. Even so it will go down as an excellent spell of weather but north of manchester the writing is on the wall for this fine weather. Andy

Originally Posted by: Andy Woodcock

Seems a little pessimistic/premature... you might end up being right, but even so, your post seems unduly assured.

Edited by user 08 July 2013 12:25:16 | Reason: Not specified

Nick
Durham
[email protected]

Sevendust
Guest

08 July 2013 12:29:41

#31

Ecm is much more keen on a breakdown early next week especially in the north. Just one run but gfs looks less settled as well and both back up the
Meto 10dayer. Even so it will go down as an excellent spell of weather but north of manchester the writing is on the wall for this fine weather. Andy

Originally Posted by: NickR

Seems a little pessimistic/premature... you might end up being right, but even so, your post seems unduly assured.

Originally Posted by: Andy Woodcock

But he is Matts agent

Gooner
Advanced Member

08 July 2013 12:33:54

#32

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn20417.png

Certainly a much cooler feel in 8 days time, before the HP builds again

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2761.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn27617.png

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L

Medlock Vale Weather
Advanced Member

08 July 2013 12:42:13

#33

The problem with Matt Hugo's tweets are that they only ever seem to highlight unsettled conditions. It was only 10 days ago that he was tweeting the ECM 32 dayer was looking poor, and look at us now. June should have been awful going by his tweets, but it was certainly very acceptable up here.

Just my two cents worth since his is so frequently mentioned on here.

Originally Posted by: AlvinMeister

No disrespect to Matt Hugo as he is dedicated but I have found his model forecasts and predictions year round to be wrong more than half the time. However Glacier Point over on Netweather was fantastic IMO, also Gavin P is good on here too.

Alan in Medlock Valley - Oldham's frost hollow. 103 metres above sea level.
What is a frost hollow? http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/reports/wxfacts/Frost-hollow.htm

bledur
Advanced Member

08 July 2013 12:56:47

#34

i dont know what matt hugo is on about . only a slight breakdown at the weekend - monday, then high pressure pushs in again.apart from n.w scotland perhaps. and you reckon simon keeling is bad LOL

nickl
Advanced Member

08 July 2013 13:07:27

#35

Too much selective memory wrt to matts tweets. he is only tweeting what the models are showing. he posted re the ec 32 last month when it was pointing to higher pressure during july.

by referring to less settled when it is settled or vica versa, he is merely pointing to when a change may be occuring.

NickR
Advanced Member

08 July 2013 13:22:52

#36

Too much selective memory wrt to matts tweets. he is only tweeting what the models are showing. he posted re the ec 32 last month when it was pointing to higher pressure during july.

by referring to less settled when it is settled or vica versa, he is merely pointing to when a change may be occuring.

Originally Posted by: nickl

I think the main problem is that he tends to be seen as the "EC 32-day-er man". Constantlyt tweeting what this model is showing, with its inevitable unreliability given its range, does not do him any favours.

Nick
Durham
[email protected]

Gavin P
Advanced Member

08 July 2013 13:25:14

#37

Hi all,

Here's today's video update;

High Pressure Keeps It Dry And Very Warm:

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/

Can't see much sign of a change today - ECM is a little more unsettled by day 10, but no reason to get hung up on that.

Originally Posted by: moomin75

Great stuff Gav. A lovely week or so left of this current spell before possible changes to something cooler and more unsettled by the end of the month.

That said, it could be a fleeting unsettled spell, or it might not happen at all.

I for one am going to enjoy the next 7-10 days and worry about the end of July a bit closer to the time.

Originally Posted by: Gavin P

Thanks Moomin.

Glacier Point over on Netweather was fantastic IMO, also Gavin P is good on here too.

Originally Posted by: Medlock Vale Weather

If I'm being compared to the other GP I'm in esteemed company indeed.

Edited by user 08 July 2013 13:31:44 | Reason: Not specified

Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids

Downpour
Advanced Member

08 July 2013 13:46:34

#38

Too much selective memory wrt to matts tweets. he is only tweeting what the models are showing. he posted re the ec 32 last month when it was pointing to higher pressure during july.

by referring to less settled when it is settled or vica versa, he is merely pointing to when a change may be occuring.

Originally Posted by: NickR

I think the main problem is that he tends to be seen as the "EC 32-day-er man". Constantlyt tweeting what this model is showing, with its inevitable unreliability given its range, does not do him any favours.

Originally Posted by: nickl

Indeed. The tweet is a tacit endorsement – the "if you tweet it, you own it" rule applies.

Imagine if he tweeted GFS showing a SE blizzard at T240 in February.

Chingford
London E4
147ft

JOHN NI
Advanced Member

08 July 2013 14:09:08

#39

Since it being discussed currently, I thought Id clarify what the "32 dayer" as its called actually is.
Its a forecast of the broadscale flow over the next month or so. Its not a weather forecast. The current EC 32 day forecast, (updated just this morning) shows heights being maintained for most of the rest of July in the vicinity of the UK. The location of where the model thinks the heights will be varies from week to week. My reading of the current output is that in the broadscale - this indicates higher than average pressure implying drier and more settled than average in a climatological sense. However with the position of potential high pressure varying from mid to east Atlantic to the north of the UK - several synoptic weather types remain a possibilty, all of which can impact day to day and week to week weather across all or part of the UK. Its is fair to say that the 32 day broadscale flow forecast has indicated prolonged periods of settled conditions in the vicinity of the UK since about the 3rd week of June.

John.
The orange County of Armagh.

NickR
Advanced Member

08 July 2013 15:07:12

#40

Since it being discussed currently, I thought Id clarify what the "32 dayer" as its called actually is.
Its a forecast of the broadscale flow over the next month or so. Its not a weather forecast. The current EC 32 day forecast, (updated just this morning) shows heights being maintained for most of the rest of July in the vicinity of the UK. The location of where the model thinks the heights will be varies from week to week. My reading of the current output is that in the broadscale - this indicates higher than average pressure implying drier and more settled than average in a climatological sense. However with the position of potential high pressure varying from mid to east Atlantic to the north of the UK - several synoptic weather types remain a possibilty, all of which can impact day to day and week to week weather across all or part of the UK. Its is fair to say that the 32 day broadscale flow forecast has indicated prolonged periods of settled conditions in the vicinity of the UK since about the 3rd week of June.

Originally Posted by: JOHN NI

Useful information for those unaware of it (and for those of us who are too!). Cheers John! Of course, it has its successes... as does every model. But it has a large number of failures too. The problem comes when the perception at least is that it is being used as some sort of hallowed model on which we can rely (which is the implication of tweeting it with no further comment or critique).

Nick
Durham
[email protected]

idj20
Advanced Member

08 July 2013 15:16:54

#41

After having read the past page regarding Matt Hugo, this image sprang to mind . .

Edited by user 08 July 2013 15:18:44 | Reason: Not specified

Folkestone Harbour.

RavenCraven
Guest

08 July 2013 15:48:28

#42

i dont know what matt hugo is on about . only a slight breakdown at the weekend - monday, then high pressure pushs in again.apart from n.w scotland perhaps. and you reckon simon keeling is bad LOL

Originally Posted by: bledur

Strikes me he is the Twitter equivalent to the Express. Not sure why anyone takes him seriously, especially as he is wrong much of the time.

On topic, it looks to remain very dry and overal quite warm, if not hot for many right through the next 8 days at the very least.

Charmhills
Advanced Member

08 July 2013 15:55:33

#43

Too much selective memory wrt to matts tweets. he is only tweeting what the models are showing. he posted re the ec 32 last month when it was pointing to higher pressure during july.

by referring to less settled when it is settled or vica versa, he is merely pointing to when a change may be occuring.

Originally Posted by: nickl

Thank you nickl.

Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.

Rob K
Advanced Member

08 July 2013 15:59:50

#44

i dont know what matt hugo is on about . only a slight breakdown at the weekend - monday, then high pressure pushs in again.apart from n.w scotland perhaps. and you reckon simon keeling is bad LOL

Originally Posted by: RavenCraven

Strikes me he is the Twitter equivalent to the Express. Not sure why anyone takes him seriously, especially as he is wrong much of the time.

On topic, it looks to remain very dry and overal quite warm, if not hot for many right through the next 8 days at the very least.

Originally Posted by: bledur

That's pretty unfair. All he is doing is reporting what the model shows. He's not cherry-picking, as he always reports the same model output. It shows what it shows, and he just spreads the word for those of us who don't have access to it.

Also I would say the ECM 32-dayer is rather more credible than the sources the Express uses.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Ally Pally Snowman
Advanced Member

08 July 2013 16:04:57

#45

i dont know what matt hugo is on about . only a slight breakdown at the weekend - monday, then high pressure pushs in again.apart from n.w scotland perhaps. and you reckon simon keeling is bad LOL

Originally Posted by: RavenCraven

Strikes me he is the Twitter equivalent to the Express. Not sure why anyone takes him seriously, especially as he is wrong much of the time.

On topic, it looks to remain very dry and overal quite warm, if not hot for many right through the next 8 days at the very least.

Originally Posted by: bledur

A bit harsh think he is one of the better ones myself thats why I quote him so much. He has been wrong this Summer but he was spot on last year.

Edited by user 08 July 2013 16:08:05 | Reason: Not specified

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.

nouska
Advanced Member

08 July 2013 16:20:29

#46

Since it being discussed currently, I thought Id clarify what the "32 dayer" as its called actually is.
Its a forecast of the broadscale flow over the next month or so. Its not a weather forecast. The current EC 32 day forecast, (updated just this morning) shows heights being maintained for most of the rest of July in the vicinity of the UK. The location of where the model thinks the heights will be varies from week to week. My reading of the current output is that in the broadscale - this indicates higher than average pressure implying drier and more settled than average in a climatological sense. However with the position of potential high pressure varying from mid to east Atlantic to the north of the UK - several synoptic weather types remain a possibilty, all of which can impact day to day and week to week weather across all or part of the UK. Its is fair to say that the 32 day broadscale flow forecast has indicated prolonged periods of settled conditions in the vicinity of the UK since about the 3rd week of June.

Originally Posted by: JOHN NI

Yes, I posted the following in the summer thread 25/6

First time in months where the ECM 32 day ensemble has not shown below average T2 mean throughout the forecast period. Potentially a nice July - analogues continue to support this.

http://www.weatherxchange.com/unzippedmonth/Coleshill_monthts_Tmean_24062013_D+XX.png

PS. Looking a lot better for the old home city.

http://www.weatherxchange.com/unzippedmonth/AberdeenDyce_monthts_Tmax_24062013_D+XX.png

Edited by user 25 June 2013 12:20:29(UTC) | Reason: Not specified

I don't get to see the synoptic patterns till a couple of weeks after when the verification is updated but the temp profiles supplied by the weatherxchange.com have been fairly accurate in the last few months.