Winter =

West is Best with Ecm this morning and for a good whlie..

For more information, google image 'Ayia Napa'

Great shifts from ECM and to a lesser extent GFS.

Not great shifts from UKMO and to a lesser extent GEM.

The balance is retained

The behaviour of that trough moving into Scandinavia appears to lead to a wide range of setups from a sometimes changeable (most often in the NE) NW flow with fluctuating temps but near average overall (i.e. like the GFS 00z op run in FI) to a pleasantly warm regime and largely settled (i.e. ECM 00z op run).

UKMO is hard to extrapolate from this morning because although it keeps the main troughing in the same area days 5-6, it appears to do so by absorbing the day 5 storm into another one for day 6, while keeping the door open for energy going east from there. So either the trough keeps getting pumped up in the same region leading to a changeable NW flow here, or the energy moves on and high pressure returns across the UK from the SW.

Matt now suggesting that the settled conditions will last until late July early August. NO BREAKDOWN!!!

MATT HUGO TWITTER

"Something cooler after mid-month, but high pressure reluctant to decline too far to the W and SW so maintaining a ridge long term"

"GFS ENS mean at 22nd July - http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rz500m13.gif … - Still plreasantly warm, some precip in the N possible, but generally anticyclonic "

"GFS has 'won' this battle, with the 12Z EC ENS yesterday far more anticyclonic long term, as per GFS ENS for a number of days."

"EC32 maintains it's trend from recent model updates and that continues to show high pressure near to the UK, perhaps to the N early August."

"EC32, not always right, but in this instance showing good consistency and always kept a more anticyclonic pattern really"

Heatwave about to collapse then if the EC32 is saying dry all the way out to the end of the month!  

As I said in another comment, to be fair he's just saying what he is seeing but for Summer the weather seems to be doing the opposite of the EC32 run so one to watch. Looking at the output this morning the threat of a breakdown has retreated however UKMO and GEM not as much.

A decent output again this morning with plenty of very warm weather on offer.

Thanks for the update 'Q'

 Indeed. A pointless cannon fodder model that goes up and down like the proverbial's knickers. 

Hopefully a mild/stormy winter ahead to.

I think that one might be a bit misleading (even if you take it at face value). The anomalies might look "cold" but the actual; pressure patterns don't exactly scream deep freeze!

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run/monthly/cfs-2-1-2014.png?18

Meanwhile back in reality - scorchio! http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs1054.gif

I absolutely despise mild winters. Not only is the weather boring but so is the model watching.

Anyway, looking good for some quite intense warmth across southern areas this weekend. Possibly the warmest so far (?), which I alluded to on my week ahead outlook on my Facebook page but won't be here to enjoy as I'll be at a music festival in Bilbao. Its a tough life!

Met Office forecast for London and the south east mentions thunderstorms late on Sunday. Can't see it myself but one to keep an eye out for.

Hi all,

Here's today's video update;

Turning Cooler And A Little More Unsettled From 20th?

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/

Just first hints of how the fine spell may break - Thinking slow and gradual.

Hopefully nobody minds if I push this through to the new page.

Methinks that down here it'll still be quite dry in a gently unsettled fashion.That kind of set up is OK,especially along the south coast. I think we will see a push of southerlies at some point as we approach August which would bring some genuine imported heat and hopefully some thunder before the Atlantic proper arrives later on. Long way off though

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130709/12/144/h850t850eu.png

The 12z GFS op run has swung back through square 1 and on to some place beyond... only by a very short distance, but it does show the 06z to be another of many '06z swings' which in this case was driven by a stronger jet for days 5-6 that pushed Atlantic troughing further into Scandi within that time range, preventing the Azores High from extending much of a ridge through the south.

Out to 162 hours and, with the jet making a lot less progress into Europe, there's actually a weak ridge breaking away and heading on east. Also of great note is an upstream trough just SW of Greenland which is promoting a ridge ahead of it. On the 06z, that trough was very weak and the jet remained flatter. The ECM 00z op run developed a stronger trough there but took a day longer to do so. The results were good for the UK

With the trough nearer Scandi rather than near Svalbard as per the 00z ECM op run, I reckon the 12z GFS op run is more likely to go on to build a flatter ridge, focused more across the south.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn17417.png

High temps for many in the South out to Tuesday

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130709/12/240/h850t850eu.png

Looking very good with GFS lifting the trough up to Svalbard - it may be slower than ECM with that part, but the result by day 10 is about as excellent

gfs models heights decline at grenny soon after thus not as much displacement on azhores which gives us good looking charts later on.