Good morning people. Here is the report from the midnight outputs of GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Wednesday July 10th 2013.
All models are maintaining their stance on the course of events over the next 4-5 days. High pressure close to NW Britain will move slowly SE over the UK in the next few days following a weak cold front South over the UK today. It then moves west out into the Atlantic maintaining a ridge over the South of the UK with a moist Westerly flow over the far North at the end of the week. Another weak cold front crosses the UK over Saturday and Sunday sparking off a few thundery showers for a few as it goes. Somewhat fresher air will follwo the front reaching most areas by Monday as aNW flow slowly develops with sunny spells and partly cloudy conditions.
GFS then shows a NE/SW split next week with a slack NW flow bringing cloudier weather at times with a few showers over Northern Britain and down the North Sea coasts while the best of the weather remains for areas the further SW you go where dry weather with some warm sunshine continues though not as hot as this week. Here too a few cloudier days can be expected. In it's latter stages the fine and warm weather in the SW is shown to extend back across all areas as the High intensifies and moves in to cover the UK at the end of the run. It would become hot and sunny for all once more in light winds.
The GFS Ensembles show cooler air is on the way later in the weekend and next week. The weather will remain largely quite dry in the South with very little in the way of rain in association with the change while Northern areas could be prone to a little more. The very hot weather of the operational described above looks very isolated this morning with the more preferred option of average July conditions looking far more likely later in the run.
The Jet Stream shows the flow slipping South towards the UK for a time next week most likely to be blowing East across Scotland.
UKMO today concludes it's run on Tuesday with a cold front clearing Eastern Britain from Monday taking cloud and any rain away East and more importantly leaving behind a cooler and fresher NW flow with sunny spells and largely dry weather with just a few showers likely in the North and NE.
GEM today also shows a very weak front crossing East on Monday with High pressure building back across Southern britain by midweek with any cooler and fresher air behind the front being replaced by renewed heat and sunny weather affecting all but the far NW . Late in the week the weather turns more humid and thundery as a trough moving East off the Atlantic engages with a small thundery plume moving North from the South with the likelihood of some big storms in the SE should it evolve.
NAVGEM today keeps High pressure in control of the weather throughout it's run this morning with High pressure still parked over the UK at it's conclusion. So dry, fine and sunny weather for all on this run with just days with slightly more cloud and daily variations in height of temperature the only changes shown.
ECM finally shows the SW the place to be next week for maintaining fine and sunny conditions with just occasional cloudier interludes here. Elsewhere and more especially towards Scotland and NE England the light NW flow will carry weak troughs through from time to time increasing cloud cover and bringing at least the risk of a little rain at times in consequently slightly cooler conditions than in the SW. The fine and warm conditions in the SW looks like extending back across more of Britain later in the run as the High responsible edges somewhat further NE again.
In Summary despite incursions of cloud and a little rain in the North and East at times the overall pattern remains quite good. There will be no doubt that the SW will see the best conditions throughout the period with virtually no chance of rainfall here for the foreseeable future and even in the North and East amounts will be small and transitory. There looks a growing trend for the chance of High pressure to build back in later in the month and though the GFS operational was an outlier the chances of that happening in my opinion remain quite good. It seems the UK has entered yet another locked pattern of weather, this time a more favourable one for our shores with at long last the Azores High becoming a major factor in the course of the UK weather thus far this Summer fending off any major attack from both the Atlantic and any chance of major thundery hot plumes from Southern Europe aided by a Jet Stream that is at last where it is supposed to be in Summer.
Originally Posted by: GIBBY