Good evening. Here is my version of the report of the midday outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Wednesday July 10th 2013.
All models show the weather largely settled over the UK over the remaining days of the week and the weekend. There will be small variations in wind flow, cloud amounts and temperature levels over the period but in essence all areas will see some very warm or hot conditions with plenty of sunshine with some more cloudy interludes too, especially in the North. Rainfall this side of next week is unlikely in any one place but as a weakening cold front slips South on Sunday a few heavy showers or thunderstorms are possible on Sunday.
GFS then has next week showing continuing fine conditions for many with patchy cloud and the odd shower restricted to more Northern parts through the week while the fine and warmer weather in the SW extends further North and East to other areas in time for next weekend. Then the weather really turns very hot with temperatures over 30C for many with light winds and a High positioned right over the UK. Then the weather nosedives at the end of the run with pressure falling and temperatures plummeting as a Low moves close to SE England with rain and if anything rather cool conditions to end the run.
The GFS Ensembles show pleasantly warm conditions with very little rainfall tonight. The first week looks almost entirely dry across the South with relatively little rain in the second week either. There will be some very warm days and copious sunny spells too as High pressure looks like re-establishing across the British Isles later next week.
The Jet Stream shows the expected flow moving South from Iceland next week rather less evident tonight with any movement weaker and transitory before the flow could shift North again towards the end of next week as High pressure builds back once more from the SW.
UKMO tonight shows somewhat fresher Westerly winds making inroads over the UK early next week, even in the South. However, apart from a few showers in the North a lot of dry weather would most likely remain with pleasantly warm conditions still in sunny spells in the South.
GEM tonight shows High pressure building back over the British Isles through next week maintaining the dry spell and after a slightly cooler interlude temperatures will climb again with very warm weather developing for all later in the week with maybe a thundery shower towards the East at the end of the run as High pressure recedes away NE to Northern Scandinavia.
NAVGEM shows no exception with High pressure building back over the South later next week with fine and warm weather never leaving the South before extending North and east to most other areas by the weekend.
ECM shows any build back of High pressure restricted to just Southern Britain with the North staying slightly more changeable and cooler with a little rain at times. The South would be warm and settled for much of the time with some warm sunny spells with any shower risk here reserved right out at the end of the run as a trough moves gently East into the UK from off the Atlantic with the risk of just a few thundery showers for a time.
In Summary the weather still looks remaining set fair for much of the next two weeks with some models going for a strong rebuild of UK High pressure towards the end of next week with a further surge of heat, especially from GFS. ECM is less supportive of this but even that shows ample dry and fine conditions for Southern area where it would stay warm and sunny at times. The North will see more cloud, lower temperatures but nothing too dramatic with OK conditions between the occasional outbreaks of rain.
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset