Originally Posted by: bledur 

Not having this, i am  a farmer and use this forum as an incredible source of information and opinion from which i take what i want and use it in my business. I don't pretend to have the knowledge most display on here  but it is a great place so why the bulling when  people post different opinions to the majority? there has definatly been cabin fever/competion on here lately to show the most outragious heat chart but that shouldn't be allowed to solely dominate the thread which is all about debate after all. Bledur has quoted the 23rd as the begining of a potential change ,well i have been watching the charts for the 24th as its my birthday and the the GFS has been showing quite consistantly the potential for change/showers over my region (SW)   for that day god knows we need it. So Steam Fog et el  please let the debate role before the loyal lurkers to this site find a more fair minded home.

Originally Posted by: bledur 

GFS has shown various breakdowns in FI since the start of this warm period. It's the nature of low res output and indeed the difficulty models have handling blocked weather. Those breakdowns have consistently been pushed back. This just underlines the risk of being over confident or definite about anything much beyond seven days.

Originally Posted by: Steam Fog 

All models show a fine and very warm or hot period still to come with at least 5-6 days more of fine weather still to come before some changes begin to take place

and that takes us to the 23rd when i did mention some forecasts speaking of a change. so if it does they got to be at least half right.

ECM has stepped back from the inferno this morning but GEM has stepped up,

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem1202.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem1442.html

certainly shows the very high temps talked about yesterday are not "nailed on"

Originally Posted by: bledur 

Beat me to it HT. That's what I get for reading in-depth

It's true that a range of opinions have their place in this forum and thread, but I also don't see anything wrong with pointing out erroneous statements, provided it's done in a respectful manner and keeps to the model discussion.

Looking at those models, they seem rather confused this morning regarding how the energy near the Azores and Iberia behaves. GFS is the most consistent from yesterday's 12z runs, while ECM has produced a run that diverges markedly due to the high pressure fizzling away much more from around halfway through the run. The reason for that is unclear... it makes for a strange run has a shallow 1016mb trough drifts up across the UK from the south but never develops further. Then the equally shallow trough near the Azores suddenly starts to be steered towards the UK, also without developing further.

UKMO handles the energy very differently at the 72-96 hour timeframe, taking it NE instead of SE, with very different results to ECM and GFS. Not sure what to make of that as it's unusual to see such disagreement at that range.

Overall, what seemed like a fairly clear trend yesterday has been shattered this morning by a wide spread of solutions from the models. We can't even be entirely sure about the setup in 5 days time, let alone 7-10. All we can do is wait until the evening to see if it all pulls back together again.

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 

GFS has shown various breakdowns in FI since the start of this warm period. It's the nature of low res output and indeed the difficulty models have handling blocked weather. Those breakdowns have consistently been pushed back. This just underlines the risk of being over confident or definite about anything much beyond seven days.

Originally Posted by: Steam Fog 

The ECM ensemble Mean is warmer for longer and slightly more more settled at days 9 and 10 than the Op.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2162.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2402.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.html

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

No major changes today in projected synoptics for the next 7 days, other than a tendancy for more of a southerly vector early next week with associated more humid air and, dare I say, thundery plumes or heat lows.
Otherwise it's mainly hot, dry with the odd local storm late afternoon.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

Beat me to it HT. That's what I get for reading in-depth

It's true that a range of opinions have their place in this forum and thread, but I also don't see anything wrong with pointing out erroneous statements, provided it's done in a respectful manner and keeps to the model discussion.

Looking at those models, they seem rather confused this morning regarding how the energy near the Azores and Iberia behaves. GFS is the most consistent from yesterday's 12z runs, while ECM has produced a run that diverges markedly due to the high pressure fizzling away much more from around halfway through the run. The reason for that is unclear... it makes for a strange run has a shallow 1016mb trough drifts up across the UK from the south but never develops further. Then the equally shallow trough near the Azores suddenly starts to be steered towards the UK, also without developing further.

UKMO handles the energy very differently at the 72-96 hour timeframe, taking it NE instead of SE, with very different results to ECM and GFS. Not sure what to make of that as it's unusual to see such disagreement at that range.

Overall, what seemed like a fairly clear trend yesterday has been shattered this morning by a wide spread of solutions from the models. We can't even be entirely sure about the setup in 5 days time, let alone 7-10. All we can do is wait until the evening to see if it all pulls back together again.  

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 

GFS has shown various breakdowns in FI since the start of this warm period. It's the nature of low res output and indeed the difficulty models have handling blocked weather. Those breakdowns have consistently been pushed back. This just underlines the risk of being over confident or definite about anything much beyond seven days.

I'd add that this doesn't mean the warm weather won't breakdown. It will. Quite possibly in the last week of July. Or maybe not. But it seems premature to claim that this is certain and risky to congratulate yourself before the event has even happened (particularly if that confident prediction has been rather mobile).

Originally Posted by: Steam Fog 

GFS has shown various breakdowns in FI since the start of this warm period. It's the nature of low res output and indeed the difficulty models have handling blocked weather. Those breakdowns have consistently been pushed back. This just underlines the risk of being over confident or definite about anything much beyond seven days.

I'd add that this doesn't mean the warm weather won't breakdown. It will. Quite possibly in the last week of July. Or maybe not. But it seems premature to claim that this is certain and risky to congratulate yourself before the event has even happened (particularly if that confident prediction has been rather mobile).

Originally Posted by: Steam Fog 

Leaving aside recent agendas and squabbling, that is an excellent post.

Also, Neils comments are spot on regarding developments. Introducing phrases like "southerly vector" are nothing more than convection hunters porn and will have some members reaching for the rubber pants,which in itself could be a tad unpleasant given the heat

Originally Posted by: Steam Fog 

The GFS 6z upgrades the temperatures for Monday. 31-32 widespread across central areas of England

Originally Posted by: ManUtdMatt1986 

Yes and then it carry on in the high res frames with night time temps also warmer even warmer over the English channel so that help to raise the current remaining pockets of 15C which should be gone very soon.

Originally Posted by: ManUtdMatt1986