Beat me to it HT. That's what I get for reading in-depth
It's true that a range of opinions have their place in this forum and thread, but I also don't see anything wrong with pointing out erroneous statements, provided it's done in a respectful manner and keeps to the model discussion.
Looking at those models, they seem rather confused this morning regarding how the energy near the Azores and Iberia behaves. GFS is the most consistent from yesterday's 12z runs, while ECM has produced a run that diverges markedly due to the high pressure fizzling away much more from around halfway through the run. The reason for that is unclear... it makes for a strange run has a shallow 1016mb trough drifts up across the UK from the south but never develops further. Then the equally shallow trough near the Azores suddenly starts to be steered towards the UK, also without developing further.
UKMO handles the energy very differently at the 72-96 hour timeframe, taking it NE instead of SE, with very different results to ECM and GFS. Not sure what to make of that as it's unusual to see such disagreement at that range.
Overall, what seemed like a fairly clear trend yesterday has been shattered this morning by a wide spread of solutions from the models. We can't even be entirely sure about the setup in 5 days time, let alone 7-10. All we can do is wait until the evening to see if it all pulls back together again.
Originally Posted by: Stormchaser