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Gooner
19 July 2013 17:27:46

Nick Miller


" Heat even more unbearable next week withh higher humidity"


A cool 24c for Oxfordshire tomorrow. Possibly 25c on Sunday

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Matty H
19 July 2013 18:01:18
Bit of an odd forecast from Ian Fergusson. Mentioned even hotter weather next week, but the graphics showed cooler temps than we've had most of this week.
Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
idj20
19 July 2013 18:59:43

Bit of an odd forecast from Ian Fergusson. Mentioned even hotter weather next week, but the graphics showed cooler temps than we've had most of this week.

Originally Posted by: Matty H 



He's probably factored in increased humidity thus making it FEEL hotter? Either that or he is in cahoots with Quantum.

It's like, the Aug 11th 2003 and July 19th 2006 heatwaves both ended peacefully because of a simple cold front moving down from the north where humidity was low at all levels. As a result there were none of the fireworks associated with instablity.
  Whereas next week a low pressure system hanging off to the south west of the UK is going to have the effect of drawing in hot and moist air in from the near Continent so not only it'll bring in much more unstable conditions, it's going to make it quite hot and humid over the South East for a time . . . yes, even here at this end of Kent . . . at least before eventually the cooler and fresher Atlantic air finally takes over later on in the week to bring a sense of normality to things.

But that's my take on it all.

Folkestone Harbour. 
KevBrads1
19 July 2013 19:07:05

[quote=Matty H;515440]It's like, the Aug 11th 2003 and July 19th 2006 heatwaves both ended peacefully because of a simple cold front moving down from the north where humidity was low at all levels. As a result there were none of the fireworks associated with instablity.

Originally Posted by: idj20 



The heatwave of 11th August 2003 did end with a bang. I remember we had a thunderstorm in the morning and other parts of northern England had storms as can be seen for the forecast that day

MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238
Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists
idj20
19 July 2013 19:21:32




It's like, the Aug 11th 2003 and July 19th 2006 heatwaves both ended peacefully because of a simple cold front moving down from the north where humidity was low at all levels. As a result there were none of the fireworks associated with instablity. <b

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 



The heatwave of 11th August 2003 did end with a bang. I remember we had a thunderstorm in the morning and other parts of northern England had storms as can be seen for the forecast that day

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bglEQ8Tt9UU

Originally Posted by: idj20 





I've just consulted my record books and indeed I have reported a burst of heavy rain early in the morning on the day after the August 10th (not sure why I keep coming up with the 11th bit) heatwave but it was very brief and there was no thunder. The sun then came out later on in the morning and all it's done was made it feel very hot and muggy as it reached 30 C in the afternoon under clear skies. The next day (which was a Tuesday) also turned out fine and sunny with 30 C temperatures but wasn't as humid and then slowly and gradually the heat eased off as we wore into the rest of the week until eventually it was down to normal values for the time of the week by the weekend but there wasn't a sniff of thunder reported.
  The July 19th July '06 tried to give off one or two storms as that hot spell broke down in the evening, much to my relief, but it was very isolated stuff (a couple of flashes over the Channel and that was it).

Folkestone Harbour. 
Essan
19 July 2013 19:45:50


Bit of an odd forecast from Ian Fergusson. Mentioned even hotter weather next week, but the graphics showed cooler temps than we've had most of this week.

Originally Posted by: idj20 



He's probably factored in increased humidity thus making it FEEL hotter? Either that or he is in cahoots with Quantum.

It's like, the Aug 11th 2003 and July 19th 2006 heatwaves both ended peacefully because of a simple cold front moving down from the north where humidity was low at all levels. As a result there were none of the fireworks associated with instablity.
  Whereas next week a low pressure system hanging off to the south west of the UK is going to have the effect of drawing in hot and moist air in from the near Continent so not only it'll bring in much more unstable conditions, it's going to make it quite hot and humid over the South East for a time . . . yes, even here at this end of Kent . . . at least before eventually the cooler and fresher Atlantic air finally takes over later on in the week to bring a sense of normality to things.

But that's my take on it all.


Originally Posted by: Matty H 


Er, maybe in SEland. but on 10th Augsy 2003 .....

The same day, a cold front sweeps south accompanied by some violent thunderstorms. In one thunderstorm at Carlton-in-Cleveland (near Middlesborough), a new reliable short duration rainfall record was set, when 30 mm fell in 5 minutes (a record hourly rainfall equivalent of 360 mm/hr). 49 mm of rain fell in 15 minutes, giving an hourly rainfall rate of 196 mm. 47.2 mm of the rain fell in 12 minutes, and 45.3 mm in 10 minutes (270 mm/hour) - the last of these figures also broke the previous 10 minute rainfall record set at Leeming, July 1968. Most of the rain fell from 9.35 - 9.47 am GMT. Along with large hail, there was a 9C temperature drop in just 1/2 hour, and a 3 mbar pressure jump. Trees were blown down, and there were reports of tornadoes



http://www.personal.dundee.ac.uk/~taharley/2003_weather.htm

Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
idj20
19 July 2013 19:55:38



Bit of an odd forecast from Ian Fergusson. Mentioned even hotter weather next week, but the graphics showed cooler temps than we've had most of this week.

Originally Posted by: Essan 



He's probably factored in increased humidity thus making it FEEL hotter? Either that or he is in cahoots with Quantum.

It's like, the Aug 11th 2003 and July 19th 2006 heatwaves both ended peacefully because of a simple cold front moving down from the north where humidity was low at all levels. As a result there were none of the fireworks associated with instablity.
  Whereas next week a low pressure system hanging off to the south west of the UK is going to have the effect of drawing in hot and moist air in from the near Continent so not only it'll bring in much more unstable conditions, it's going to make it quite hot and humid over the South East for a time . . . yes, even here at this end of Kent . . . at least before eventually the cooler and fresher Atlantic air finally takes over later on in the week to bring a sense of normality to things.

But that's my take on it all.


Originally Posted by: idj20 


Er, maybe in SEland. but on 10th Augsy 2003 .....

The same day, a cold front sweeps south accompanied by some violent thunderstorms. In one thunderstorm at Carlton-in-Cleveland (near Middlesborough), a new reliable short duration rainfall record was set, when 30 mm fell in 5 minutes (a record hourly rainfall equivalent of 360 mm/hr). 49 mm of rain fell in 15 minutes, giving an hourly rainfall rate of 196 mm. 47.2 mm of the rain fell in 12 minutes, and 45.3 mm in 10 minutes (270 mm/hour) - the last of these figures also broke the previous 10 minute rainfall record set at Leeming, July 1968. Most of the rain fell from 9.35 - 9.47 am GMT. Along with large hail, there was a 9C temperature drop in just 1/2 hour, and a 3 mbar pressure jump. Trees were blown down, and there were reports of tornadoes

Originally Posted by: Matty H 



http://www.personal.dundee.ac.uk/~taharley/2003_weather.htm





Seems that the Folkestone Shield was just as effective even in those days.    

Folkestone Harbour. 
Rob K
19 July 2013 22:51:21
Did someone mention thunderstorms? Oh dear...

http://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/358325712194768899/photo/1 

WALOFS.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Matty H
19 July 2013 22:54:43

Did someone mention thunderstorms? Oh dear...

http://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/358325712194768899/photo/1 

WALOFS.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 



Idiots.
Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
Gooner
19 July 2013 22:54:46

Did someone mention thunderstorms? Oh dear...

http://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/358325712194768899/photo/1

WALOFS.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


That's pathetic

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


A3K
  • A3K
  • Advanced Member
19 July 2013 23:09:21

Did someone mention thunderstorms? Oh dear...

http://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/358325712194768899/photo/1

WALOFS.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


I'm going to get really mad if we only struggle to 99f now 

Andrew.
Born in the USA.
UserPostedImage


Gavin P
19 July 2013 23:27:18

Did someone mention thunderstorms? Oh dear...

http://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/358325712194768899/photo/1

WALOFS.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


I can see what I'll be Flashing about in the morning then.

Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
winterof63
20 July 2013 03:16:12

and just in from the met office


Outlook for Monday to Wednesday


Becoming hotter and more humid in most areas.


Mostly fine at first, but isolated heavy showers or thunderstorms in the southwest extending northeastwards and becoming more frequent by mid week.


Bring it on I say


Cheers !


John


p.s. Heck.. am I the only one not able to sleep in this heat ?

KevBrads1
20 July 2013 05:03:38
I don't get why news reports are saying it could reach as high as mid 30s next week? All I see with the models including UKMO is rain for some parts as early as Monday.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-23387517 

"Temperatures next week could get as high as the mid-30s, Mr Avery said."

Where do the models say that?
MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238
Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists
Rob K
20 July 2013 05:17:15

I don't get why news reports are saying it could reach as high as mid 30s next week? All I see with the models including UKMO is rain for some parts as early as Monday.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-23387517 

"Temperatures next week could get as high as the mid-30s, Mr Avery said."

Where do the models say that?

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 



As always the media are a few days out of date. Two or three days ago many runs did show a plume coming up from the south bringing uppers as high as 20c before the breakdown arrived on Fri/Sat. Since then it has steadily been brought forward with the warm uppers staying well clear of the uk.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
LeedsLad123
20 July 2013 05:22:24

I don't get why news reports are saying it could reach as high as mid 30s next week? All I see with the models including UKMO is rain for some parts as early as Monday.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-23387517

"Temperatures next week could get as high as the mid-30s, Mr Avery said."

Where do the models say that?

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 


Even the Met Office say it will get hotter and more humid next week, along with the weather presenters on the BBC - clearly they are seeing something we are not. I don't see why the ECM charts could not produce low 30s before it all breaks down by Thursday or so - uppers are still projected to be quite high until Wednesday, up to 16C in a few isolated spots, 12 - 14 elsewhere, which is high enough to produce low 30s given clear skies. I think low 30s is possible on Monday and Tuesday.

Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
Retron
20 July 2013 05:34:29


Where do the models say that?

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 


The ECM mean tmax for Heathrow is 34C for Monday and 33C for Tuesday, with 90th percentiles of 35C and 36C respectively.


MOGREPS has 30C and 29C respectively, with upper bounds of 32C and 33C. MOGREPS also has an upper bound of 35C for Wednesday, but the mean is 25C.


In other words - the models do show it, but with relatively low probabilities.

Leysdown, north Kent
Gusty
20 July 2013 05:55:03



Where do the models say that?

Originally Posted by: Retron 


The ECM mean tmax for Heathrow is 34C for Monday and 33C for Tuesday, with 90th percentiles of 35C and 36C respectively.


MOGREPS has 30C and 29C respectively, with upper bounds of 32C and 33C. MOGREPS also has an upper bound of 35C for Wednesday, but the mean is 25C.


In other words - the models do show it, but with relatively low probabilities.


Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 


There is a potential for 34c or even a 35c on Monday and Tuesday. My gut feeling though is that increasing amounts of cloud in association with the thundery trough will scupper this potential.

Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
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LeedsLad123
20 July 2013 06:21:31
Well, the Met have upgraded Tuesday's temperatures from 25C to 27C, and they have a tendency to undercook temperatures.
Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
Jiries
20 July 2013 06:30:29

Well, the Met have upgraded Tuesday's temperatures from 25C to 27C, and they have a tendency to undercook temperatures.

Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123 


They had been undercooking by 4-5C lately which need a review why they been using such low temps when in reality we had higher temps. 

Jiries
20 July 2013 06:32:45




Where do the models say that?

Originally Posted by: Gusty 


The ECM mean tmax for Heathrow is 34C for Monday and 33C for Tuesday, with 90th percentiles of 35C and 36C respectively.


MOGREPS has 30C and 29C respectively, with upper bounds of 32C and 33C. MOGREPS also has an upper bound of 35C for Wednesday, but the mean is 25C.


In other words - the models do show it, but with relatively low probabilities.


Originally Posted by: Retron 


There is a potential for 34c or even a 35c on Monday and Tuesday. My gut feeling though is that increasing amounts of cloud in association with the thundery trough will scupper this potential.


Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 


To me is likely to see those high temps as the ground already very dry and warm from constant sunshine so that would help to deliver those temps early next week before droping off by Thurs-Fri.

moomin75
20 July 2013 09:10:24

Did someone mention thunderstorms? Oh dear...

http://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/358325712194768899/photo/1

WALOFS.

Originally Posted by: Matty H 



Idiots.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

That bloke should be sacked. He brings shame to journalism, and I am a journalist myself.


What a complete prized idiot he is. If anyone else constantly produced utter tripe like that in a workplace, they would be for the high jump!

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
KevBrads1
20 July 2013 09:50:37




Where do the models say that?

Originally Posted by: Jiries 


The ECM mean tmax for Heathrow is 34C for Monday and 33C for Tuesday, with 90th percentiles of 35C and 36C respectively.


MOGREPS has 30C and 29C respectively, with upper bounds of 32C and 33C. MOGREPS also has an upper bound of 35C for Wednesday, but the mean is 25C.


In other words - the models do show it, but with relatively low probabilities.


Originally Posted by: Gusty 


There is a potential for 34c or even a 35c on Monday and Tuesday. My gut feeling though is that increasing amounts of cloud in association with the thundery trough will scupper this potential.


Originally Posted by: Retron 


To me is likely to see those high temps as the ground already very dry and warm from constant sunshine so that would help to deliver those temps early next week before droping off by Thurs-Fri.

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 



It depends on cloud development because it looks like it is breaking down as early as Monday if you look at the models.
MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238
Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists
Jiries
20 July 2013 10:57:51

[quote=Jiries;515579]

It depends on cloud development because it looks like it is breaking down as early as Monday if you look at the models.

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 


Not Monday as it mid-week then get hotter again later in the week and into the weekend with high 20's temps.  I am going for 34-35C early this week for here.

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