Hi folks. Well done to all those who enjoyed the severe overnight thunderstorms. I feel a little isolated in the fact that we missed everything here in Radstock apart from an impressive distant lightning display pre-dawn and a light rain shower afterwards to just dampen the parched ground here. Anyway is there more to come. Here is the report on the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Tuesday July 23rd 2013.
All models show a slack Low pressure area to the West of the UK with a very warm and humid flow over the UK being slowly displaced by slightly cooler but still warm and humid conditions feeding gently NE across the UK behind the storms over Eastern and Northern areas. Once passed the weather will remain slightly unsettled with still the risk of showers, a few of which will continue to be potentially thundery but still with warm sunny spells in between. By the weekend it will again be very warm in the SE with further thundery potential here and maybe elsewhere too as slack Low pressure continues to blow unstable, cooler air aloft over warm and humid surface conditions.
GFS then takes us through next week and beyond with winds blowing mostly from between South and West with troughs carrying outbreaks of rain and showers across the UK on occasion. Despite still being rather warm in the East at first the trend would be for it to slowly become cooler and breezier for all with time.
The GFS Ensembles today show a change in the weather type as the general consensus between the members show a period of more mobile and fresher Atlantic winds with rain at times with some drier and brighter spells once the embers of the warm spell finally leave the SE early next week. It could become quite wet at times in the North and West shown by some members as Low pressure moves over these areas at times from the West.
The Jet Stream is now relocating on a more Southerly latitude across the Atlantic to the SW approaches before returning North across the UK and Northern Europe later in the week. Thereafter it maintains this more Southerly flow and pushes the returning Northward part of the flow further East over Europe later.
UKMO today concludes this run with Low pressure over Ireland and the Atlantic with a cooler SW flow delivering some rain or showers at times across the UK finally clearing the warm and humid conditions of the week and weekend we're currently working through.
GEM today shows a further surge of warm and potentially thundery weather moving North at the weekend with cooler and fresher air edging in behind from the SW with the mix of sunshine and showers under more of a SW breeze.
NAVGEM today shows Low pressure finally moving North out of the SW approaches over the weekend to finally allow the cooler fresher Atlantic air to reach all of the UK early next week following the warm, humid and thundery shower type weather all parts are likely to keep until then.
ECM also shows fresher air finally making it across the UK next Monday but very warm air is never far away from the South of the UK so after thundery weather at the weekend cooler weather with more of a SW breeze greets us next week before the South and East become warm and dry for a time while the North and West come under attack from Atlantic wind and rain at times.
In Summary this morning we will have to maintain the warm and humid weather over the rest of the week and weekend with a possible resurgence of thundery weather at the weekend before a further attempt to push the warm weather away East to Europe with fresher and cooler SW winds and rain at times shown by most models to eventually affect the UK from early next week. There is no sign of anything deeply unsettled with cross model support and on balance next week too will see more in the way of dry weather than wet in the South.
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset